powderfreak Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: You know better than that. Pattern persistence is the way to forecast each of these events.. Which is s south trend the last 36 hours. It's happened every freaking time we've seen events like this modeled the last 4 months . Something is causing this. Who knows what.. But it sucks I do feel you. That's exactly what we all in NNE said every event last winter (even the NWS threw in the follow persistence and toss any model showing snow) but in this case it's rain for you and not snow. Sort of like you'll believe it when it's actually raining, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: How is tomorrow night looking? Should the Pawsox game be in the clear by then ? At this rate Pawtucket wont even see a drop.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NEW RPM is way south Hopefully your well runs dry. When in drought forecast drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I do feel you. That's exactly what we all in NNE said every event last winter (even the NWS threw in the follow persistence and toss any model showing snow) but in this case it's rain for you and not snow. Sort of like you'll believe it when it's actually raining, lol. The tv guys and NWS are going big big rains..I just don't see how the confidence is there for that. There's so much that can go wrong. In the winter they'd be looking for ways.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Hopefully your well runs dry. When in drought forecast drought. "Never bet against a streak" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The tv guys and NWS are going big big rains..I just don't see how the confidence is there for that. There's so much that can go wrong. In the winter they'd be looking for ways.. Since when does a winter storm watch mean going big snow? Likewise, a flash flood watch doesn't mean going big rains. It just means there is the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The tv guys and NWS are going big big rains..I just don't see how the confidence is there for that. There's so much that can go wrong. In the winter they'd be looking for ways.. Seems like everyone is mentioning the caution flags. Not sure what you're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Seems like everyone is mentioning the caution flags. Not sure what you're looking at. Well I watched you and you didn't say anything about how most of this could miss us. Unless it was during another segment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Well I watched you and you didn't say anything about how most of this could miss us. Unless it was during another segment RGEM way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 One of the big keys (or indicators for the heavy rain potential) is the projected strength of the LLJ. Both the NAM and GFS indicate winds at 925mb strengthening to >35 knots as the 925 low starts to develop. These >35 knots winds from the SE throwing in copious amounts of moisture into some pretty strong is entropic lift. Both models have PWATS as high as 2.30" to 2.40" which is pretty damn high. I could see a jackpot swath of 4-5" of rain tomorrow. As for convective/tornado potential...definitely the best threat is NW NJ into NYC region into Long Island. Typically in these setups the warm front will typically stall just to the north of the CT coast which places Long Island and points south in the true warm sector which will be characterized by low to mid 70 dews. Some models showing 600-800 J of MLcape is also quite impressive if convection can tap into that given the degree of low-level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The tv guys and NWS are going big big rains..I just don't see how the confidence is there for that. There's so much that can go wrong. In the winter they'd be looking for ways.. I think you are over-selling the negatives...there's really not much that can go wrong per se, just the placement of the moisture axis. It's not like trying to get a Miller B get its act together before exiting east in the winter. Wish you were this cautious in the winter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Radar actually looks ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Just now, ineedsnow said: Radar actually looks ominous I don't know, other than small cells here and there it looks like the bulk of precip stays south of HFD/PVD line......Could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Radar actually looks ominous It does? It looks like you can see what the fear was of the storms evolving into MCS taking all the good stuff south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It does? It looks like you can see what the fear was of the storms evolving into MCS taking all the good stuff south . Man you are traumatized ;). Hopefully you get like 1.5" of rain...sort of like next winter when NNE posters poo poo every storm but then get a 15" dump. You know convective rains are more localized than models show, but I still believe large areas of CT/RI/SE MA have 1"+....more scattered north of the pike as has always been modeled. This time of year with this low level moisture, all you need is a good hour of rain to get 0.5"+. Today I picked up 0.27" in 12 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Man you are traumatized ;). Hopefully you get like 1.5" of rain...sort of like next winter when NNE posters poo poo every storm but then get a 15" dump. You know convective rains are more localized than models show, but I still believe large areas of CT/RI/SE MA have 1"+....more scattered north of the pike as has always been modeled. This time of year with this low level moisture, all you need is a good hour of rain to get 0.5"+. Today I picked up 0.27" in 12 minutes. seemed to have dried out a little tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 The radar will really fill in as the LLJ materializes and transports moisture into the lift associated with warm front tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 HRRR is pretty underwhelming. <0.5" for most of CT with the exception of S&W of HVN which is 0.5-1.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: HRRR is pretty underwhelming. <0.5" for most of CT with the exception of S&W of HVN which is 0.5-1.0". and it's done by 9-10am. RGEM may have been onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 0z NAM much drier. Gone are the 2-3 inch totals for NYC and CT. 4K nam is even further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 i'm just here to keep an eye on the Cape...all you guys forecasting big rains are scaring all the climbers away...I need customers to show up so the park can open... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 A good chunk of CT will see between 0.5" and 1.5" of rainfall with this. The >1.5" amouts will be confined to localized areas perhaps having convective influences. In fact, I bet we see some locations get 3-4" of rainfall. A strengthening llvl jet from the SE overriding a warm front with near 70 dews and > 2" PWATS is not going to go unscathed without some decent rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Looks like a decent drink is coming for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 The Scooter rule wins again. We all lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Had a breif heavy sprinkle here... 0.02" in the rain gauge. Definitely glad we have a flood watch up with such tropical downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 i'm just here to keep an eye on the Cape...all you guys forecasting big rains are scaring all the climbers away...I need customers to show up so the park can open...What park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 NNE gets zippo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 35 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Had a breif heavy sprinkle here... 0.02" in the rain gauge. Definitely glad we have a flood watch up with such tropical downpours. 0.11" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The Scooter rule wins again. We all lose As far as I can tell, rain seems to be covering a large portion of SNE. How is that losing? Is this the old "someone else is getting more than me so I'm losing" argument? That's the argument that codfishman uses in the winter because someone around him had more snow. It appears to me that we have several more hours of rain coming so I don't see how that is a complete miss or that we are "losing". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Finally some good rain in CON. Should get some at the casa later too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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