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NNE Summer 2016


MaineJayhawk

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No wind and little TS, but ended with decent rainfall...0.58" through the tipper. I'll check the Stratus in a bit.

.84"... kicking your ass again.

 

heh...wow.

1.45" in the stratus gauge. The Davis will be tipping slowly all day. I really need to check the cone more before potential rainfall.

oh.

 

I was actually considering posting last night because I knew your .10"/hr rain rate under orange pixels wasn't accurate.

 

I can probably bring you a piece of the wire fencing I used to make my own bird spikes if you want.

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Well there ended up being quite a bit of damage in our town from that first cell that passed through before the main line.  Although I only had a peak wind gust of 33mph it seems a microburst moved straight up Rt 3A on the east side of Newfound Lake.  Many trees down.  Lots of cleanup this AM. One person was taken to the hospital when a large limb fell on them or their house.  Lots of crews restoring electric this AM.  Here is the clip again,  I slowed it down.  The microburst would be on the right side of the picture passing about 3/4 miles to the right of the camera.  Doesn't look that impressive.  As I drove down Rt 3A there were 3 areas of damage each spaced 1/4 mile apart. Many trees down in each spot but then little damage until you hit another pocket.  All trees facing NE.  I don't see any rotation in my timelapse.  https://video.nest.com/clip/ba3553e8f88c4723b7f80c476116e2bb.mp4

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.84"... kicking your ass again.

 

oh.

 

I was actually considering posting last night because I knew your .10"/hr rain rate under orange pixels wasn't accurate.

 

I can probably bring you a piece of the wire fencing I used to make my own bird spikes if you want.

I've had bird spikes, but I don't like them around the cone (Paranoia about some rain getting blocked). I just need to make a better point of cleaning it out. The catbirds are the culprits.
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Well there ended up being quite a bit of damage in our town from that first cell that passed through before the main line.  Although I only had a peak wind gust of 33mph it seems a microburst moved straight up Rt 3A on the east side of Newfound Lake.  Many trees down.  Lots of cleanup this AM. One person was taken to the hospital when a large limb fell on them or their house.  Lots of crews restoring electric this AM.  Here is the clip again,  I slowed it down.  The microburst would be on the right side of the picture passing about 3/4 miles to the right of the camera.  Doesn't look that impressive.  As I drove down Rt 3A there were 3 areas of damage each spaced 1/4 mile apart. Many trees down in each spot but then little damage until you hit another pocket.  All trees facing NE.  I don't see any rotation in my timelapse.  https://video.nest.com/clip/ba3553e8f88c4723b7f80c476116e2bb.mp4

yea I mentioned last night you caught that microburst

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Mild TS arrived a bit before 11 last evening, 0.29", mainly in the first 10 minutes.  Sparse lightning, but one bolt at 2 seconds distance as RA was ending, sounded just like my .30-06, only with better echoes.  Had 1.20" during the past 3 days, but only 0.25" the previous 3 weeks.  Small-seed crops - carrots, bok choi, even radish - pretty much failed due to very dry upper layer of spoil (and our having the two oldest grandkids for 10 days, which kept us busy, in a good way.)  Replanted bok choi and arugula, too late to get more than baby carrots.  Beans look fine.

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yea I mentioned last night you caught that microburst

Ginx,  I know, you and Ocean  called it right!!    I was outside watching it.  A few claps of thunder and .15" of rain and a 34mph gust.  Didn't get very dark. Although it was impressive on radar my visual observation at my house was fairly meh. I didn't realize that just a half mile west of me on a perpendicular path lots of damage.  Even went back and reviewed my time lapse and doesn't look that impressive but obviously it was.  Right after the storm a local friend on facebook posted trees down blocking Rt 3A right down the road from me.  I didn't even drive the mile down to take a look, I figured it was one tree not dozens and dozens  of  trees. Attached map shows my location "H" and damage path "X".  Just a bit too breezy to fly the drone to get a view from above, perhaps tomorrow.

post-268-0-24627000-1467482055_thumb.jpg

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Ginx,  I know, you and Ocean  called it right!!    I was outside watching it.  A few claps of thunder and .15" of rain and a 34mph gust.  Didn't get very dark. Although it was impressive on radar my visual observation at my house was fairly meh. I didn't realize that just a half mile west of me on a perpendicular path lots of damage.  Even went back and reviewed my time lapse and doesn't look that impressive but obviously it was.  Right after the storm a local friend on facebook posted trees down blocking Rt 3A right down the road from me.  I didn't even drive the mile down to take a look, I figured it was one tree not dozens and dozens  of  trees. Attached map shows my location "H" and damage path "X".  Just a bit too breezy to fly the drone to get a view from above, perhaps tomorrow.

You can see this huge pine just get bent over at the top from the outflow from the main burst centered near the lake edge. Cool capture bro

post-322-0-41366700-1467487772_thumb.png

post-322-0-59639900-1467487778_thumb.png

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Going to end the month with 2.68" if my math is right.  Of that 1.75" was on the 5th and .50" was from today's system.

 

I haven’t passed along the June precipitation for our site yet, but it came in at 5.09” this time around.  That’s more than 2.5” below the mean I’ve got for June, but that trend seems in line with some of the local sites like MPV and BTV that were ~70% and ~80% of average for the month, respectively.  It seems like it been enough to keep the vegetation happy, and windows for mowing have definitely been more plentiful than usual.

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I haven’t passed along the June precipitation for our site yet, but it came in at 5.09” this time around.  That’s more than 2.5” below the mean I’ve got for June, but that trend seems in line with some of the local sites like MPV and BTV that were ~70% and ~80% of average for the month, respectively.  It seems like it been enough to keep the vegetation happy, and windows for mowing have definitely been more plentiful than usual.

 

If I'm reading that right, your records have a mean of ~7.5" of precipitation for June? 

 

I've got to imagine that's skewed due to a plethora of wet Junes over the past decade?  The Mansfield summit mean for June is 7.11" precipitation, and there's no doubt that's probably tops in the state for average precipitation, aside from whatever Jay Peak might get...but Mansfield's width and size seems to contribute well to getting thunderstorms and heavy convective rains going, so I'm not convinced there's a wetter place in the state than the Coop position on the ridgeline.

 

Anyway, my June precipitation came in at 4.41".  Looks like the CoCoRAHS station 1-2 miles away was 4.17"...and the state "winner" was Hyde Park about 15 miles north of here with 6.06".  Always interesting how localized convective rains are...in the towns with multiple stations there's quite the variety in totals.

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If I'm reading that right, your records have a mean of ~7.5" of precipitation for June?

 

I've got to imagine that's skewed due to a plethora of wet Junes over the past decade?

 

Yeah, the mean liquid I’ve got for June at our site is 7.68” with an S.D. of 2.69”, but like you said, I suspect that’s on the high side due to some wet times in the past decade.  That’s going to come down, (case in point, incorporating this June’s rainfall already brings it down a couple of tenths of an inch) although I still suspect this season is below average for rainfall based on the numbers for surrounding sites.  I guess June might have the potential to be hit or miss with convection, so total liquid comparisons might be a bit inconsistent in the short term.

 

The Mansfield summit mean for June is 7.11" precipitation, and there's no doubt that's probably tops in the state for average precipitation, aside from whatever Jay Peak might get...but Mansfield's width and size seems to contribute well to getting thunderstorms and heavy convective rains going, so I'm not convinced there's a wetter place in the state than the Coop position on the ridgeline.

 

What I don’t get is that Mansfield number – doesn’t the summit get something like 80-100” of precipitation a year?  A June mean of 7.11” would work if it was just like every other month, but is June not a peak wet month for Mansfield like it is elsewhere around here?

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The new Weirs Beach water quality buoy is operational now.  Finally, real time access to important things like water temp, PH, and specific conductance of unfiltered water in microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees celsius.

 

Lake is a useless 70 degrees this morning.

 

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?site_no=01080000&PARAmeter_cd=00095,00010,00300,00400

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Winds and waves would have been nice.

The new Weirs Beach water quality buoy is operational now.  Finally, real time access to important things like water temp, PH, and specific conductance of unfiltered water in microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees celsius.

 

Lake is a useless 70 degrees this morning.

 

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?site_no=01080000&PARAmeter_cd=00095,00010,00300,00400

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Yeah, the mean liquid I’ve got for June at our site is 7.68” with an S.D. of 2.69”, but like you said, I suspect that’s on the high side due to some wet times in the past decade. That’s going to come down, (case in point, incorporating this June’s rainfall already brings it down a couple of tenths of an inch) although I still suspect this season is below average for rainfall based on the numbers for surrounding sites. I guess June might have the potential to be hit or miss with convection, so total liquid comparisons might be a bit inconsistent in the short term.

What I don’t get is that Mansfield number – doesn’t the summit get something like 80-100” of precipitation a year? A June mean of 7.11” would work if it was just like every other month, but is June not a peak wet month for Mansfield like it is elsewhere around here?

Looks like Mansfield's average is around 75"...and ranges from a min of 4.40" in February to 7.11" in June.

June through December average 6.12-7.11" per month and then it drops to 5" in January, 4.4" in February before bumping back up to 5-6" a month for Mar/Apr/May.

There are definitely some very wet stretches like 1995-2001 where it was 84-100" a year during those 6 years.

Last year was dry with only 67.44" for 2015.

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Wind would be nice.

The waves in that location generally don't get very big. Someone unfamiliar with the lake might see a report of two foot waves there and then assume it'll be ok to cross over to Wolfeboro.

I don't know a lot about the lake currents, but back in the day my friend's parents had a place on Rattlesnake Island. We would tak the paddleboat out just off the western edge of that little nub of land sticking out between Rattlesnake and Sleepers Island. The current through there was always really strong. We didn't paddle to the east side of the island mich, but when we did I feel like the waves were decent on that side. Maybe it's just because I was really young.

Where's the typical roughest part of the lake?

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What a fantastic July 3rd day.  Temps upper 70's, dew's 40's, nice breeze,  scattered Cu to add to the landscape.  Perhaps a bit cool for the swimmers and people hiking the highest Whites but if you took all outdoor activities as a whole couldn't get much better.

 

Friday nights Microburst is turning out to be a much bigger deal for our little town than I realized.  The reporter for the Plymouth Enterprises called me because she knows I know something about weather.  She spent 3 hours surveying damage around town.  She estimates several hundred trees down. Structure damage too.  One person still in the hospital, hit by a falling limb. 

 

Brian, as far as Lake Winni goes I am no Lake expert but on Newfound the largest waves are usually in the downwind areas of NW exposure.  Newfound runs 7 miles north to south so usually the strongest winds are from the NW so the SE part of the exposed lake gets the full fetch as the waves build.  I would guess the SE part of the broads on Lake Winni would be similar with a 20 mile open expanse facing up towards Meredith. I don't think currents would have much to do with anything, its not like the ocean where large movements of under surface water can build waves.  I would guess currents are just the top surface water moving with the wind. However I could be "out to water" on all of this!

 

One more note.  Still about 6 days away but perhaps a region wide soaking around next weekend?  12Z Euro has over an 1" and GFS on board too.  Tuesday looks like a miss to the south.

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I don't know a lot about the lake currents, but back in the day my friend's parents had a place on Rattlesnake Island. We would tak the paddleboat out just off the western edge of that little nub of land sticking out between Rattlesnake and Sleepers Island. The current through there was always really strong. We didn't paddle to the east side of the island mich, but when we did I feel like the waves were decent on that side. Maybe it's just because I was really young.

Where's the typical roughest part of the lake?

The middle broads triangle bordered by Welch, Cow, and Rattlesnake Islands will be rough no matter which way the wind blows.

 

I need a house on Welch for E/SE wind, one on Diamond for NW wind, and one on Millstone point for SW wind.

 

Welch probably gives you the best bang for your buck regardless of direction.

 

The actual roughest part of the lake is likely the Paugus Bay end of the Weirs Channel at the end of the no-wake zone.  Heavy boat traffic trying to get up onto plane.

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What a fantastic July 3rd day. Temps upper 70's, dew's 40's, nice breeze, scattered Cu to add to the landscape. Perhaps a bit cool for the swimmers and people hiking the highest Whites but if you took all outdoor activities as a whole couldn't get much better.

Friday nights Microburst is turning out to be a much bigger deal for our little town than I realized. The reporter for the Plymouth Enterprises called me because she knows I know something about weather. She spent 3 hours surveying damage around town. She estimates several hundred trees down. Structure damage too. One person still in the hospital, hit by a falling limb.

Brian, as far as Lake Winni goes I am no Lake expert but on Newfound the largest waves are usually in the downwind areas of NW exposure. Newfound runs 7 miles north to south so usually the strongest winds are from the NW so the SE part of the exposed lake gets the full fetch as the waves build. I would guess the SE part of the broads on Lake Winni would be similar with a 20 mile open expanse facing up towards Meredith. I don't think currents would have much to do with anything, its not like the ocean where large movements of under surface water can build waves. I would guess currents are just the top surface water moving with the wind. However I could be "out to water" on all of this!

One more note. Still about 6 days away but perhaps a region wide soaking around next weekend? 12Z Euro has over an 1" and GFS on board too. Tuesday looks like a miss to the south.

Drove past Newfound on my way over to Old Orchard Beach and saw several trees down.
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It's interesting that technically the 2 SW counties of NH are mostly in the tornado watch box but are not included.  Why is that? 

 

Missed this the other night. The shortest answer is that when they propose a watch to us we discuss which counties should be included. Then SPC uses lat/lon anchor points to draw the edges of the polygon watch. Sometimes those lat/lon points fall outside of the watch box in order to include all the counties that should be in it.

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Well there ended up being quite a bit of damage in our town from that first cell that passed through before the main line.  Although I only had a peak wind gust of 33mph it seems a microburst moved straight up Rt 3A on the east side of Newfound Lake.  Many trees down.  Lots of cleanup this AM. One person was taken to the hospital when a large limb fell on them or their house.  Lots of crews restoring electric this AM.  Here is the clip again,  I slowed it down.  The microburst would be on the right side of the picture passing about 3/4 miles to the right of the camera.  Doesn't look that impressive.  As I drove down Rt 3A there were 3 areas of damage each spaced 1/4 mile apart. Many trees down in each spot but then little damage until you hit another pocket.  All trees facing NE.  I don't see any rotation in my timelapse.  https://video.nest.com/clip/ba3553e8f88c4723b7f80c476116e2bb.mp4

 

It was a really interesting case. Nearly due north movement (so trees facing in a northerly direction makes sense for straight line wind). But it also appear that it was north of the warm front, and elevated, hence the northerly storm motion. 

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