tamarack Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 June came in at 1.0 BN, and with no real extremes of temp - the 4th was +8.5 and the 22nd -7, so no noteworthy departures. Warmest: 83 on the 27th. Mildest minimum: 59 on the 28th and 29th. Warmest mean: 67.5 on the 28th. Coolest: 37 on the 17th. Coolest max: 56 on the 9th. Coolest mean: 51, on the 9th. Precip was 3.72", just over 2/3 of my 19-year avg of 5.50". This year dropped the June avg to within 0.01" of October for rainiest month. Largest one-day precip: 1.00" on the 6th. We had thunder on 4 days, which is avg for June. All the thunder was distant and infrequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 If I'm remembering correctly, I had gauged my core heights to be roughly this: 65 dBZ to 16000 ft, 60 to 20000, 55 to 22000, and 50 to 27000. I took notice of the cell closer to CON, as it seemed to be pulsing its way higher and higher. Very near Bristol the core increased to 65 dBZ to 16000 feet, but 50 dBZ barely extended over 20000. So I opted for a SPS instead of a SVR AT 714 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKINGA STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLYMOUTH...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 45MPH.* PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITHTHIS STORM.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...PLYMOUTH...HOLDERNESS...WOODSTOCK...ASHLAND...AND HEBRON. Unfortunately, it had already done its deed at that point. Going back through the radar data this morning, there was definitely evidence in hindsight, but I'm not sure anybody here would've pulled the trigger. And if they had, they would've warned on everything else that day too. Here are some cross-sections through the storm at 2302z, 2307z, and 2313z. You can see how the core jumped up, and collapsed all in the span of two volume scans. Sometimes you can catch the collapse before it starts, if it's tall enough or if you have a MARC (mid-altitude radial convergence) type signature. At 1.4 degrees at 2307z maybe if you tried real hard you could convince yourself there was a signal here. The storm-relative winds on the right show about 15 knots convergence. Given the environmental factors, including stability, this just didn't seem like a good severe candidate. And unfortunately, once you saw the core collapse it was too late to get a product out that would help anyone. As much as I love working severe weather, missing this one (especially considering there was an injury) really sticks with me. Even though we can't get them all, you still want and expect to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Looks like Mansfield's average is around 75"...and ranges from a min of 4.40" in February to 7.11" in June. June through December average 6.12-7.11" per month and then it drops to 5" in January, 4.4" in February before bumping back up to 5-6" a month for Mar/Apr/May. That 7.11” makes a bit more sense now that I see the mountain doesn’t have quite the June spike that I’ve seen in the data here. There are definitely some very wet stretches like 1995-2001 where it was 84-100" a year during those 6 years. Last year was dry with only 67.44" for 2015. I recorded 49.36” at our site for 2015, which is ~75% of that Mansfield number. As much as we have more faith in the summit’s liquid numbers vs. the snowfall numbers, that still makes me wonder if they’re missing something. I’d expect to receive ~50% of the precipitation at 4,000’ (sort of like the way the snowfall at our site is half what you record on Mansfield), 75% just seems too high. But, Mt Washington reports 96.87” of liquid a year (putting it at ~20” more than that Mansfield number), and you have to think they’re the absolute masters when it comes to collecting precipitation in a summit environment, and the number is as good as it’s going to get. Maybe one just needs to catch precipitation on the leeward side (e.g. SMR & Tuckerman Ravine) to really get that actual precipitation that is maximized by the orographics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 I As much as I love working severe weather, missing this one (especially considering there was an injury) really sticks with me. Even though we can't get them all, you still want and expect to. Everyone in this town is still talking about what happened around 7pm Friday night. Several hundred trees down in a one mile area, store signs blown down, cabins crushed. I watched it all as the core pasted 1/2 mile west of me. Only a dozen or so lightning strikes, no hail that I know of and it did not get very dark. As a trained weather observer I would not have thought anything severe was going to happen being so close to ground zero. I've watched my timelapse many times and now realize there was brief cloud rotation above the damage area. The camera faces due south. I made a new timelapse and slowed it down. Surface damage starts beyond the sprinkler head and continues north off screen on the right. Around the 28 second mark note the rotation in the clouds above the sprinkler. Below that point there were many trees down. Does anyone but me see rotation in that lead cloud? I guess that would not be the place for anything tornadic. https://video.nest.com/clip/2c8a50dd7cff4467a48330e501da1c2b.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Everyone in this town is still talking about what happened around 7pm Friday night. Several hundred trees down in a one mile area, store signs blown down, cabins crushed. I watched it all as the core pasted 1/2 mile west of me. Only a dozen or so lightning strikes, no hail that I know of and it did not get very dark. As a trained weather observer I would not have thought anything severe was going to happen being so close to ground zero. I've watched my timelapse many times and now realize there was brief cloud rotation above the damage area. The camera faces due south. I made a new timelapse and slowed it down. Surface damage starts beyond the sprinkler head and continues north off screen on the right. Around the 28 second mark note the rotation in the clouds above the sprinkler. Below that point there were many trees down. Does anyone but me see rotation in that lead cloud? I guess that would not be the place for anything tornadic. https://video.nest.com/clip/2c8a50dd7cff4467a48330e501da1c2b.mp4 There may be, but I'm more inclined to think it's rotation related to turbulent flow than tornadic or even mesocyclone related rotation. As that microburst occurs, it will surge out and cause the clouds aloft to rotate out and away from the location. If it was mesocyclone related, I think it would show a lot more clearly in your timelapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 What a beautiful 4th in Vermont! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 Quackers the duck continues to leave each morning and return at almost exactly 8:20 when the sun goes behind the hills. It's rather amusing... she lands... walks to the bush...looks around twice and then quickly scoots right in. Will be a shame when her babies are slaughtered making the trip across the road to the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 Uh oh. We lose the first minute of sunlight this evening. Sunset at Plymouth NH is 831pm not 832pm as it has been the past few nights. All downhill on both ends now. Looking forwards to Tstorms/showers Thur/Sunday. Maybe some good rains. Eyewall, that fireworks picture from the drone is awesome, could win a contest. I bet its the best toy you ever bought!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Looks wet coming up...GFS showing 2-4.5" for a large portion of Vermont through 120 hours (Sunday afternoon). 3.5" here on the 18z run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Looks wet coming up...GFS showing 2-5" for a large portion of Vermont through 120 hours (Sunday afternoon). 3.5" here on the 18z run lol. image.png Would love the rains but don't want my golf tournament rained on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Would love the rains but don't want my golf tournament rained on. Thurs/Fri/Sat and even into Sunday all look to have wet periods...not a constant rain but definitely looks like a multi-day period of water. Saturday looks the worst with that fairly decent low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Thurs/Fri/Sat and even into Sunday all look to have wet periods...not a constant rain but definitely looks like a multi-day period of water. Saturday looks the worst with that fairly decent low pressure system. I will take it over the heat every time. It was warm yesterday so I decided to seek higher terrain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Thurs/Fri/Sat and even into Sunday all look to have wet periods...not a constant rain but definitely looks like a multi-day period of water. Saturday looks the worst with that fairly decent low pressure system. The rain will be welcome, even the much lesser though significant amounts progged for my area. Would prefer it to wait until Friday, as we're tromping thru the woods at Cutler tomorrow, but as one of my forestry professors once said, "There's no such thing as inclement weather, just improper clothing." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Super Pano of the Bolton ridgeline! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Tstorms look to have diminished through tomorrow. Lawn taking a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Uh oh. We lose the first minute of sunlight this evening. Sunset at Plymouth NH is 831pm not 832pm as it has been the past few nights. All downhill on both ends now. Looking forwards to Tstorms/showers Thur/Sunday. Maybe some good rains. Eyewall, that fireworks picture from the drone is awesome, could win a contest. I bet its the best toy you ever bought!! I love it and thank you! I am probably making you guys tired of it LOL. It is either this or bitching about winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 We ended up with a few showers last night. Nothing strong enough that I had to shut the windows however. Here's hoping the garden gets a good soaking coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Feels pretty gross with dews at 70F. This weather is good for warming up lakes, etc and swimming I will admit, but not a fan unless it come with some decent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 We ended up with a few showers last night. Nothing strong enough that I had to shut the windows however. Here's hoping the garden gets a good soaking coming up. No rain at my place but there was a nice shower at the golf course around 7:00, exactly when I was teeing off for a late 3-4 holes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Pop up cell developed just west of me and moved right over Newfound Lake. Gave me .04" and one clap of thunder. Dropped temp to 70 with a 65F dew right now. Eyewall, stole your fireworks pic and put it on my facebook page. Told them that a friend took it in Vermont. Got 29 likes, comments or shares! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Hi all - haven't posted much. My beloved beagle is dying and I'm not handling it too well. It royally sucks. Just drove through an insane storm in Bethlehem on my way to Littleton though. Had to stop because you literally could not see. Scary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Just a frequent lurker Alex, but my thoghts are with you, our little and some times not so little friends are family. And when they become older or injured we as animal lovers care for them the same way as we would with any loved ones in our lives. Best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Hi all - haven't posted much. My beloved beagle is dying and I'm not handling it too well. It royally sucks. Just drove through an insane storm in Bethlehem on my way to Littleton though. Had to stop because you literally could not see. Scary!Our beagle is starting to rapidly decline as well. She is 16 years old and her kidneys are starting to fail. It always sucks. She started out as a rabbit dog with my brother in law but quickly became a house pet at my father in law's. We took her when he couldn't care for her and went into a nursing home. She is sort of the last tangible connection my wife has with her dad and it is going to be really hard when she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Looks like there may have been a waterspout in New Ipswich NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Quick .69" from a nice little line that dropped in from the north. Was SVR warned, but pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Thank you all, your thoughts are much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 So no real soaking rain this weekend? All I see is showers, maybe a T-storm, but won't hold my breath. If it's gonna be showery/cloudy, then I'd rather it pour. Otherwise, let's have sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Two days of mank, 0.09" total rain. Since the gloom is likely to continue thru the weekend, I hope it's a lot wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 0.25 here yesterday, partly sunny today. Interesting news on my dog... they stopped all treatments since he was supposed to be done, and he's doing better and better! He's started eating again, walking, and this morning tried to chase after a bear in my yard. Interesting lesson - don't always assume it's the disease causing the problem! He still doesn't have much time left, but looks like it will be more than the few days that they had given us. I will cherish every extra day I get. I feel like a got the greatest gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 0.25 here yesterday, partly sunny today. Interesting news on my dog... they stopped all treatments since he was supposed to be done, and he's doing better and better! He's started eating again, walking, and this morning tried to chase after a bear in my yard. Interesting lesson - don't always assume it's the disease causing the problem! He still doesn't have much time left, but looks like it will be more than the few days that they had given us. I will cherish every extra day I get. I feel like a got the greatest gift. Our Lab had a huge tumor taken off her liver last August. The surgeon told us that it was impossible to remove all the cancer, and that she might have one more month, or six. Next week will make 11 months and though her health is declining, she is still obviously enjoying life. Any extra good time is like playing with house money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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