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SNE Tropical Weather Discussion - Hurricanes


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Within the next ten to fourteen days the models are pointing towards two tropical cyclones potentially impacting the East Coast of the US.  Models differ on development at this time, but there is enough support from the CMC and EURO and GFS to suggest that development is possible southeast of the current 91L disturbance track sometime around Wednesday or Thursday of next week.  Stay tuned!

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Dude.

 

...You probably know what this is for:

 

:facepalm:

yeah, I get that.  I'm slow in the brain this morning, but not that slow.  Forgive me.  But I couldn't figure out what he meant by the weenie tag..  Didn't know if it was tongue in cheek, or because of something else.

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I wasn't saying a direct impact was likely, just that some models were showing a chance.  TS Bonnie is with us and there are two other areas of spiked up energy involved in the same trough system as Bonnie spawned from.  Bonnie could strengthen to 60mph.

 

But probably won't.

 

post-44-0-40318700-1464489469_thumb.png

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Joaquin had a less shear environment, it thrived on no shear over its center and thrived over very warm SSTs.  I think this year the East Coast will get hit by a major hurricane.  Also I think the CV season is going to start earlier this year with the developing LA Nina.  A strong tropical wave is emerging off the west African coastline by 5-6N: 5-15W

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Joaquin had a less shear environment, it thrived on no shear over its center and thrived over very warm SSTs.  I think this year the East Coast will get hit by a major hurricane.  Also I think the CV season is going to start earlier this year with the developing LA Nina.  A strong tropical wave is emerging off the west African coastline by 5-6N: 5-15W

Well, once J got under that anticyclone in the Bahamas it took off, but for days the models had it getting sheared to death. I remember well all the dismissive posts about it in the main thread, but it held on. Tenacious bugger.

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GFS has been consistent on developing the tropical wave that emerges off of the African continent on July 24th through 27th, either one of these waves have the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone come next week when conditions finally become favorable.  AS one can see on satellite imagery of the African Coast, convection is already developing south of the Cape Verde Islands.  The MJO is coming to enhance TC activity.  Be ready, this hurricane season already sees temperatures off of NC and SC that can sustain a 190mph hurricane.  Also the waters south of SNE and Cape Cod can sustain a TS so far, just wait until the heart of hurricane season, when they can sustain a category three monster.

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