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SNE Tropical Weather Discussion - Hurricanes


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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50 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Sandy didn't impact SNE directly, it was a band of 70-kt winds that impacted SNE, but it was with Sandy itself, more like the nor'easter that she combined with that forced the wind damage upon SNE, Sandy was still tropical when she made landfall in NJ.

If by impact you mean 'make landfall' you are correct of course, but it goes without saying that there were substantial effects on the southern shores of New England.  (That said, if you wanna sell SW CT to NYC, I'm fine with it)

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Glad to see you don't count CT as New England.

M***hole.


If by impact you mean 'make landfall' you are correct of course, but it goes without saying that there were substantial effects on the southern shores of New England.  (That said, if you wanna sell SW CT to NYC, I'm fine with it)


i think those posters from NNE would have something to say about Irene (or the remnants of it)



Lol. ...if it didnt happen imby it didn't happen, right?

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

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I think the future of 98L is very much in doubt given it is currently heading westward while the major models take it northwestward into a break in the sub-tropical ridge over the north tropical Atlantic Ocean.  However, Future Fiona because I believe this system will be named Fiona by 5pm today, and I expect a hurricane to develop by 120 hours and could become quite a powerful hurricane if it reaches westward of 60w longitude.  This system could become quite intense before a trough off the East Coast if strong enough to recurve it, if it is between 20-25N latitude and 50-60W longitude, however if it somehow is further southwest than these boxes, then landfall will become more probable and it would have missed the strong trough of low pressure that was there to deflect it out to sea.  Still some time left to decide where she goes, but she is developing quickly.

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HWRF and EURO as well as know the GFS all have FIona pretty weak as she enters the danger zone for US landfall hurricanes on the East Coast, the box is between 20-40N latitude and 60-80W longitude.  If they reach this box, then all bets are off, a potential landfall of a hurricane needs to be monitored, the GFS has shown a hurricane in this box in the last three or four runs.

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Things seem to be finally heating up in the tropics.  Invest way out near Africa should recurve safely out to sea.  The disturbance further to the west seems to be gaining thunderstorm activity this afternoon as it moves WNW.  The Euro  develops it around  Florida and then into the Gulf slowly re curving it north.  This is way way out in fantasy land but some type of storm moving north somewhere,  Appalachians, east coast etc.  could help the North East drought.  Just something to watch for next week.

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As we transition to La Nina, ONI is currently 0.2 for MJJ (not sure when JJA comes out)- are we headed into a weak La Nina?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

I can't find the post to credit, but someone previously noted that weak La Nina years have featured Irene (2011), Bertha (1996), Gloria(1985), Donna, Carol, 1944 and 1938 storms. Thoughts?

EDIT: Found post:

 

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