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andyhb

May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

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  This reminds me a little bit of the Wynnewood, Oklahoma tornado today and the Hesston F5 tornado from 1990. They both sound similar.

  Pause the Wynnewood tornado vid at 0:19

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1b1pW6HuUY

 

Pause the Hesston tornado vid at 2:38.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCUHtyFcRUI

 

 

  I can't tell if that is a house in the Wynnewood tornado but we know that is a house in the Hesston tornado.

Hesston is a good comparison. Both displayed extremely violent ground rotation for non-wedge tornadoes. I know that greater assessment needs to be made via ground damage (and how its foolish to try beforehand) to designate strength of this tornado, but based upon the fairly abundant video evidence starting to come out from this event, I'll be surprised if we don't see a minimum of ef-3 (likely ef-4) for this one.

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Why doesn't the video show the tornado fully crossing the road? And that end, why is that also not completed? This keeps happening in half of all tornado videos. Maybe for the crossing they had to reposition because large debris was getting too close for safety but the video could keep going? Maybe those cars close to the monster have some footage (priceless I might add).

Alot of the really good footage is cut and edited to provide exclusivity to the entities willing to purchase it's rights. At least that's my guess. That being said, I really have no problem with this considering that chasing can be an expensive venture. The majority of chasers provide valuable spotting information to entities capable of spreading information to mass amounts of citizens, so I have no problem with the monetization of some of their footage.

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All the tornado footage from yesterday doesn't even look real! All the details are so vivid... I guess video quality has just really improved in the past few years.

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Really curious to see what the Katie tornado and the one after it was rated. Would not be surprised if I sae EF4 slapped on the one from Katie given the astounding motion at the surface. That's some of the top 10 motion I've ever seen.

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Best chase for me in my career thus far. I recorded almost 20 pure minutes of tornado footage from the Wynnewood TOR west of I-35. My longtime girlfriend and chase partner (Paige Burress) took almost 500 tornado pictures during all phases of the event today. My 20 minute video will be uploaded here in about 20 minutes and I'll add it to this post in an edit. My video was cool but Paige's catches were just mind-blowing. 

 

<snip>

 

awesome pic, and nice video! 

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Wow, what a great day in terms of photos/videos but more importantly and unfortunately lives lost and damage to personal property.

I'm a noob at this. Just now starting to read soundings and weather models. It started as an anxiety but now I'm getting more in to it as I know being aware has helped me overcome a lot.

As I look at models on pivotal for say long term outlook is the GFS the best one to look at. What I have done is look at SBCAPE at each 00Z out to say 240 hours. All strictly on CAPE but I know many things can change that far out.

Is that the best way to look then hone in on details as days get closer?

Thanks for any help and advice. Looking forward to growing my interest

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Really curious to see what the Katie tornado and the one after it was rated. Would not be surprised if I sae EF4 slapped on the one from Katie given the astounding motion at the surface. That's some of the top 10 motion I've ever seen.

It's going to depend on the buildings it damaged or destroyed, and their structural integrity as to what the final rating will be.

Remember, just a few weeks back the Fletcher & Ninnekah tornadoes were only rated EF1s, and the El Reno had to be rated an EF3 because of the new scale. 

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Had a friend send me this screen grab from KFOR. It's impossible to tell what was on that foundation. There is defiantly ground scouring at that location. Now we wait and see what the damage survey determines.

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A little knowledge goes a long way reducing anxiety...

 

Wow, what a great day in terms of photos/videos but more importantly and unfortunately lives lost and damage to personal property.

I'm a noob at this. Just now starting to read soundings and weather models. It started as an anxiety but now I'm getting more in to it as I know being aware has helped me overcome a lot.

As I look at models on pivotal for say long term outlook is the GFS the best one to look at. What I have done is look at SBCAPE at each 00Z out to say 240 hours. All strictly on CAPE but I know many things can change that far out.

Is that the best way to look then hone in on details as days get closer?

Thanks for any help and advice. Looking forward to growing my interest

 

GFS is the basic long-range model. European ECMWF is better and it goes out six days on weather.cod.edu/forecast College of DuPage. For days 7+ free of charge the GFS is available in many places.

 

Large CAPE with high pressure overhead will not lead to storms, just hot in summer. Big bubble no trouble, we say. A front and especially low pressure in the area with high CAPE could lead to storms. Model QPF has also improved in recent years, but models can struggle both directions with the cap. Whether storms will be severe also depends on what is going on upstairs.

 

I also look at jet stream winds, 500 mb PVA, and a low level jet at 850/925 mb. If they are present, with turning, odds of severe increase. Severe type depends on details at all levels such as 700 mb etc. In the short term hodographs can help. Weak wind fields reduce the chance of severe.

 

Helicity is another great index to check in the shorter term say day 0-2. It is another way of looking at the turning with height and strength of wind fields. EHI energy helicity index combines it with CAPE. 

 

Same day one can discern outflow boundaries, mesolows, dry line bulges and other mesoscale features. Track them using visible satellite and surface charts. One can anticipate short-waves with water vapor satellite and look at wind profilers upstream.

 

SPC talks about mesoscale feature more in mesoscale discussions than outlooks. Speaking of them, despite some gnashing of teeth here, SPC does pretty well. Local Weather Service Area Forecast Discussions are packed with information too.

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A lot of things like outflow boundaries have to be identified using surface Obs. The strong tornadoes formed on a boundary that was setup in that area. There was also a subtle, weak boundary that the Norman supercell was on.

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It's going to depend on the buildings it damaged or destroyed, and their structural integrity as to what the final rating will be.

Remember, just a few weeks back the Fletcher & Ninnekah tornadoes were only rated EF1s, and the El Reno had to be rated an EF3 because of the new scale.

I know, given the odds that they did hit a decent damage indicator, which the Katie tornado looked to pick up a house and shred it, the a higher tornado rating would be more likely. But that wedge also hit a house and cleaned the foundation per KFOR. If that's correct, than that's at least EF4 if it was indeed a house and it did indeed clean the foundation. There was also some reports of ground scouring of those are to be believed.

EDIT: Jason has the pic im talking about.

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My complete video from the Wynnewood, OK Tornado. I actually filmed this tornado in the same location I filmed one back on May 19, 2010. 

 

So calm David. "Yep, that's a tree"

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I know, given the odds that they did hit a decent damage indicator, which the Katie tornado looked to pick up a house and shred it, the a higher tornado rating would be more likely. But that wedge also hit a house and cleaned the foundation per KFOR. If that's correct, than that's at least EF4 if it was indeed a house and it did indeed clean the foundation. There was also some reports of ground scouring of those are to be believed.

EDIT: Jason has the pic im talking about.

I'll be studying at the weather center all day. If they do a press conference for the announcement I'll be there.

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So calm David. "Yep, that's a tree"

 

Chalk it up to experience and mental preparedness I suppose. This was Paige's first violent tornado so she was obviously a bit more nervous for the folks being impacted by it. I filmed another large tornado literally in the exact same spot six years ago so I was very familiar with the area. Regardless of what the damage is rated I have no doubt this was indeed a tornado capable of producing EF4+ damage. Other folks closer to the tornado during its most violent stages will attest to that. 

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As for the tornadic supercell up north near Stillwater, that may have developed with only about 30kt of effective shear, and possibly 35-50kt at 300mb. There was a strong gradient of 300mb wind there.

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Also found at least EF-3 damage with the tornado east of I-35, in garvin and Murray counties.

EDIT: From OUN Twitter: "Survey teams also found a 12 mile long damage path associated with an anti-cyclonic tornado from N of Sulphur to N of Roff."

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Also found at least EF-3 damage with the tornado east of I-35, in garvin and Murray counties.

EDIT: From OUN Twitter: "Survey teams also found a 12 mile long damage path associated with an anti-cyclonic tornado from N of Sulphur to N of Roff."

 

I would guess that anticyclonic tornado was the circulation pointed out here back on the bottom half of page 18.

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I'd imagine so... Looks like they have yet to survey where the most intense damage likely occurred. Probably will end up with damage higher than EF-3--possibly much higher.

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I'd imagine so... Looks like they have yet to survey where the most intense damage likely occurred. Probably will end up with damage higher than EF-3--possibly much higher.

Per Norman's Twitter it sounds like they dedicated a survey team to this area.

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Wow, what a great day in terms of photos/videos but more importantly and unfortunately lives lost and damage to personal property.

I'm a noob at this. Just now starting to read soundings and weather models. It started as an anxiety but now I'm getting more in to it as I know being aware has helped me overcome a lot.

As I look at models on pivotal for say long term outlook is the GFS the best one to look at. What I have done is look at SBCAPE at each 00Z out to say 240 hours. All strictly on CAPE but I know many things can change that far out.

Is that the best way to look then hone in on details as days get closer?

Thanks for any help and advice. Looking forward to growing my interest

 

I can appreciate you're desire to learn. It's why I find weather so fascinating...there's always something new to learn.

 

While thermodynamic instability (CAPE) is an essential ingredient for significant severe weather it's not the only ingredient. Wind shear is another, more important IMHO, ingredient so make sure you start paying attention to it. There are many ways wind shear can present itself and even subtle differences in magnitude and orientation can have significant consequences on storm mode and potency. And start googling for supercell theory. The supercell thunderstorm is certainly one of the most fascinating atmospheric phenomenon. It wasn't until the early to mid 1980's that the theory of how they work started to mature. It's a huge learning curve, but once you've familiarized yourself with the theory I can guarantee that you will have a profound appreciation for why these thunderstorms are truly deserving of the "super" moniker!

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