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May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes


andyhb

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The storm in caldwell ks, riding the ks/ok border bears watching. It is really blowing up

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

EAST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 647 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF DEER CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE

DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BLACKWELL...BRAMAN...DEER CREEK...NARDIN AND BLACKWELL LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 222 AND 236.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 157  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

720 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016  

 

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  

SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS  

NORTHWEST LOUISIANA  

THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL  

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA  

NORTHEAST TEXAS  

 

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 720 PM  

UNTIL 200 AM CDT.  

 

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  

A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS  

TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  

SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  

 

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS NOW NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG THE OK-TX BORDER  

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY E OR ENE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT...WITH  

AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE  

STRONG...AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM IN NE TX / NW LA  

/ SW AR AHEAD OF THE SUPERCELLS. THESE MAY THEMSELVES EVOLVE INTO  

SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOS E / NE ACROSS NRN LA / SRN AR.  

FINALLY...SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE OF STORMS IN N CENTRAL AR  

MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS / SUPERCELLS  

POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.  

 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0733 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN

OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154...156...

VALID 100033Z - 100130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

154...156...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS

OF WWS 154 AND 156. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE

ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WWS 154 AND 156. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS

BEGUN THE PROCESS OF CONGEALING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN

NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES. AS THESE

STORMS CONGEAL...LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING BASEBALL HAIL REPORTS FROM

WASHINGTON COUNTY KANSAS/ AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN

POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH ANY ISOLATED CELL

THAT CAN ACQUIRE ROTATION. AS THESE STORMS CONGEAL...THEY MAY BEGIN

A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH TIME /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN

NEBRASKA/.

FARTHER SOUTH...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EVIDENT NEAR

THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER...AND ANOTHER ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL

PERSISTS ACROSS PAWNEE/OSAGE OKLAHOMA. IN THIS REGION...BACKING OF

LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS BENEATH STRONGER /30-50 KNOT/ WESTERLY FLOW

ALOFT IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A

SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT. LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS EXCEEDING 2

INCHES IN DIAMETER...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

PARTS OF THIS REGION HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPGRADED TO A TORNADO

WATCH...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS MAY BE UPGRADED AS CONVECTION EVOLVES.

ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT NEW

DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

GIVEN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG A DRYLINE IN THE REGION AND AN

APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE

POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS REGIME.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2016

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

GID...

LAT...LON 36739826 37069782 37439746 37789735 38499736 38999773

39359810 39879812 40519774 41059738 41439696 41729654

41999595 42069555 42099505 42009460 41809442 41469443

40979459 40489493 39839526 38929530 38329512 37589507

36969497 36629485 36319495 36069550 35939635 35959694

36089757 36399815 36739826

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RaXPol was apparently measuring the violent wedge tornado near Hickory/Sulpher earlier today... Several dows were, wonder what kind of estimated winds they got, also wonder if OUN will pay any attention to them. Regardless of whatever they measured, still looks like there were several homes/buildings that received high-end damage nonetheless, among other key markers, e.g. ground scouring, debarked trees, etc.

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Odd.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GUTHRIE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 805 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF GUTHRIE CENTER...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

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Odd.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN GUTHRIE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 805 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST

OF GUTHRIE CENTER...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

 

All kinds of surprises today, there was a pretty long warning in Wyoming today as well, not sure if it ever ended being a TOG or not.

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Odd.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN GUTHRIE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 805 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST

OF GUTHRIE CENTER...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

This is near the WF. There were a few in the DVN CWA today as well.

 

Have seen the warm front produce quite well in the Midwest the past few events.

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RaXPol was apparently measuring the violent wedge tornado near Hickory/Sulpher earlier today... Several dows were, wonder what kind of estimated winds they got, also wonder if OUN will pay any attention to them. Regardless of whatever they measured, still looks like there were several homes/buildings that received high-end damage nonetheless, among other key markers, e.g. ground scouring, debarked trees, etc.

 

I highly doubt OUN will pay attention to the winds recorded because the EF scale is based on damage, not on measured winds.  Think of El Reno 2013.  Yes, I know, it sucks.

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Some footage of the earlier chaos with the mile wide wedge. "Is this bigger than El Reno?"

 

Basehunters gets everything it seems, lets find out tonight if they bagged a bunch.

 

I noticed when I was going to post hours ago when I hit reply to 3 quoted it did nothing and the board seemed to derp out (online count dropped to 6 from hundreds)...what was that?

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This is the reason why I didn't save any loops of the Hugo, Oklahoma storm.  Radar holes FTL!

 

I mean it's so far away from the site that I don't even know if I can reliably say it. But seriously, that rotation signature between deport and clarksville shown on KSRX is pretty ominous. 

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I highly doubt OUN will pay attention to the winds recorded because the EF scale is based on damage, not on measured winds. Think of El Reno 2013. Yes, I know, it sucks.

yeah I was sorta being sarcastic. Changes are needed to the system.
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Remarkable similarity in appearance between today's Sulphur wedge and the 1999 Bridge Creek tornado: https://twitter.com/AaronWxDavis/status/729851071196188672

Incredible. Even has the lowering on the right side. We should have gone strait south, but we got the very brief tornado from the Norman storm. Then went north toward Stillwater and proceeded to have our clutch go out and had to be rescued by a friend. Happy we didn't go south so that didn't happen near a wedge.

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This is the reason why I didn't save any loops of the Hugo, Oklahoma storm.  Radar holes FTL!

Here's one bit of the velocity data from the Hugo storm before it hit Hugo. This is about the highest SRV the radar showed. As you know, the velocity data can be noisy at those type of distances.

 

OVdkpa3.png

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