bluewave Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 45 degrees is the number for NYC to beat Monday morning. The last time that NYC dipped below 45 degrees from May 15-31st was back in 2009 which made it down to 43. NYC hasn't dropped below 40 this time of year since 1976. So you can see the GFS cold bias at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 We finally going to see a slight overperforming rain event today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 We finally going to see a slight overperforming rain event today? Looks like less than .25" for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Looks like less than .25" for most Rgem has a strip of enhanced rainfall near NYC and for LI with the same NENJ hole, that's been occurring for months: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 13, 2016 Author Share Posted May 13, 2016 We rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Solid rain in the city but we need more then this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Going off the GFS MOS, no AN day next week after tomorrow's AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Temperatures already running above guidance and portions of Central New Jersey away from the sea breeze could run 75-80 degrees today. This may help to destabilize the atmosphere more for some strong to locally severe New Jersey storms later today. The steeper midlevel lapse rates may allow the storms to hold together enough for some rumbles of thunder even to Long Island. temp8.gif rad12.gif Seems like temps have been overperforming a bit lately. I also think todays strong/severe threat may be a bit better then what is currently being forecast especially with the temps already running above guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 64 beautiful degrees here in Carroll gardens, BK enjoy the cold shot tonight and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Temp already up to 64 here, I think 75-80 looks like a good possibility today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 UPTON NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Only patch river fog remains while fog has dissipated across theremainder of the forecast area.As low pressure passes north of New York state this afternoon, astrong mid level disturbance and surface cold front will moveacross PA, while a pre-frontal trough sets up over eastern PA andNJ. A line of showers and a few tstms should form with the pre-frontal trough and move into areas from NYC west late thisafternoon, then move across Long Island and southern CT thisevening. Instability with the trough will be marginal, with only500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, but this along with DCAPE 500-1000 J/kg inspots, presence of mid level dry air and decent unidirectionaldeep layer shear with mid level SW flow up to 50 kt, suggestorganized convection with gusty winds, and the stronger cellscapable of producing localized damaging wind gusts. Storms shouldweaken this evening as they pass east of NYC into a more stablemarine environment and with loss of daytime heating /sfc-basedinstability. Skies clear later tonight after fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Temp here got to 70 earlier, now 68 with a se wind...sometimes with an approaching cold front, winds will shift briefly to sw just ahead of the front and temps can spike quickly near the coast...temps well into the 70's to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 18z NAM only gives us .10-.20 this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 18z NAM only gives us .10-.20 this evening Not much moisture available with the cold front since PWAT's are under an inch. But the steep low level lapse rates and deep mixed layer may give some areas gusts 35-45 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Current temp, 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Looks like a wimpy line of showers is the best we can hope for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Looks like a wimpy line of showers is the best we can hope forRadar has really been drying up to the west this afternoon. How many times have we seen this picture?Mostly overcast and quite humid here in the City. Awaiting the front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Radar has really been drying up to the west this afternoon. How many times have we seen this picture? Mostly overcast and quite humid here in the City. Awaiting the front... Front came through before the rain. Windy and cool now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 40 mph gusts or higher possible with the heavier showers heading for Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 608 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 CTZ005-006-009-NJZ006-104-NYZ068>075-078-080-176>179-142300- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-EASTERN BERGEN-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-ROCKLAND-PUTNAM-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)- 608 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 ...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN... FAIRFIELD...HUDSON...SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN...ROCKLAND...WESTCHESTER... BRONX...NASSAU...NEW YORK...WESTERN SUFFOLK...KINGS...QUEENS AND PUTNAM COUNTIES... AT 606 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FISHKILL TO MIDTOWN MANHATTAN TO CEDAR GLEN WEST...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEW YORK...ISLIP...OYSTER BAY...JERSEY CITY...HUNTINGTON...YONKERS... BRIDGEPORT...STAMFORD...NORWALK...DANBURY...NEW ROCHELLE...WHITE PLAINS... HOBOKEN...FREEPORT...SHELTON...VALLEY STREAM...LONG BEACH...PORT CHESTER... LINDENHURST AND BERGENFIELD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Looks like the City misses the heaviest rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Looks like the City misses the heaviest rain...Dried up completely by the time it got here, just a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Basically no rain in Manhattan but did have 40mph gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 split the uprights here. Might get by with zip tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 608 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 CTZ005-006-009-NJZ006-104-NYZ068>075-078-080-176>179-142300- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-EASTERN BERGEN-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-ROCKLAND-PUTNAM-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)- 608 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 ...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN... FAIRFIELD...HUDSON...SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN...ROCKLAND...WESTCHESTER... BRONX...NASSAU...NEW YORK...WESTERN SUFFOLK...KINGS...QUEENS AND PUTNAM COUNTIES... AT 606 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FISHKILL TO MIDTOWN MANHATTAN TO CEDAR GLEN WEST...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEW YORK...ISLIP...OYSTER BAY...JERSEY CITY...HUNTINGTON...YONKERS... BRIDGEPORT...STAMFORD...NORWALK...DANBURY...NEW ROCHELLE...WHITE PLAINS... HOBOKEN...FREEPORT...SHELTON...VALLEY STREAM...LONG BEACH...PORT CHESTER... LINDENHURST AND BERGENFIELD. Decent squall blew through. Gusty winds and heavy rain for a bit. Maybe 0.10-0.20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 More strong wind potential today behind the cold front. An unusually deep mixed layer will allow for the possibility of wind gusts over 40 mph. Models have NYC dipping below 45 degrees tomorrow morning which would approach the record lows for the day. It would be our first reading below 45 this time of May in NYC since 2009. NYC top three coldest for 5/16 42 in 1878 42 in 1873 43 in 1983+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 More strong wind potential today behind the cold front. An unusually deep mixed layer will allow for the possibility of wind gusts over 40 mph. Models have NYC dipping below 45 degrees tomorrow morning which would approach the record lows for the day. It would be our first reading below 45 this time of May in NYC since 2009. NYC top three coldest for 5/16 42 in 1878 42 in 1873 43 in 1983+ SND.gif ...what do you see going further? ...jb still looking @ a major reversal by the time we get to memorial day w/e..not so much major heat but rather temps above avg.. ..your opinion, sir ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 Brother is camping in the higher terrain in nw pa. Reporting an inch of new snow at 1900 ft elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 ...what do you see going further? ...jb still looking @ a major reversal by the time we get to memorial day w/e..not so much major heat but rather temps above avg.. ..your opinion, sir ? The ensembles pump the ridge over SE Canada as a trough drops into the West. But they also try to close off a low over the SE. This would set us up coastal sections for an easterly cooler flow during the 6-10 day. We'll need that trough to kick out after day 10 to get back into a warmer SW flow. The EPS bring in 80+ degree potential day 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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