tamarack Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Yeah it's hard to get more than 10" in those usually...once in a while you can get a 10-12 lolli zone, but yeah most of my forecasts in SWFEs over the years were right in the 6-10/8-12 zone. I feel like I was copying and pasting the 6-10" forecast all season in 2007-2008 for the clients in N ORH county. About right for farther north, too. Below are my 21 snowfalls 3"+ for 07-08, from largest to least. Though not all fit the mold (#2 and #3, Dec 3-4 and 16-17, maybe Miller Bs?), that winter was the SWFE king. 12.5 (ratio 14.4 to 1) 10.7 9.5 9.0 8.0 8.0 7.5 6.4 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.0 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Yeah it's hard to get more than 10" in those usually...once in a while you can get a 10-12 lolli zone, but yeah most of my forecasts in SWFEs over the years were right in the 6-10/8-12 zone. I feel like I was copying and pasting the 6-10" forecast all season in 2007-2008 for the clients in N ORH county. Yeah, remember 2/2/11? Lots of snowfall maps showing 12-18....fail. I'm not talking about the round 1 either on 2/1 (that was kind of separate impulse). 3-2-09, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 I'll take a 12/21/09 Ray naked twister if I can get the 12/20/09 CJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 Stock up the fire wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 I'll take a 12/21/09 Ray naked twister if I can get the 12/20/09 CJ.I think you mean 2008. That CF on 12/21/08 wa ridiculous. Like 16F over 2-3 miles at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 I think you mean 2008. That CF on 12/21/08 wa ridiculous. Like 16F over 2-3 miles at one point. Yes. I keep getting 08 and 09 mixed up for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Stock up the fire wood. Cold, cold winter incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaxSki Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Let's hope it is Cold and Snowy at our place at 2000 ft in Southern Vermont after last years torch!! I want to Ski sections of the Catamount trail and the Woods at Mt Snow. Been up there for 15 seasons and have had some good snows in neutral and La Niña winters. I would think the interior will eventually cash in. Lots of winters down here on the coast with snow to rain and then would read about the Bis Snows up in the hills and mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Let's hope it is Cold and Snowy at our place at 2000 ft in Southern Vermont after last years torch!! I want to Ski sections of the Catamount trail and the Woods at Mt Snow. Been up there for 15 seasons and have had some good snows in neutral and La Niña winters. I would think the interior will eventually cash in. Lots of winters down here on the coast with snow to rain and then would read about the Bis Snows up in the hills and mountains. There's always the chance of a La Nina dud there (ala 2011-2012 or 1999-2000) but at the very least, even a year like that would be way better than last year's complete disaster. Hopefully this is one of those Ninas like 2000-2001 or 2007-2008 when the snow just keeps on coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaxSki Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 We bought our place Dec 2000 was a good season then March 2001 came and it just Snowed and Snowed until our second story windows were covered!!! The powder in the woods so deep.2007-2008 was also great but more front loaded. I prefer early snows for the holidays right thru February for deep bases then some nice Spring skiing cold nights then warm dry days for snow preservation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 Stock up on snow shovels, ice skates, snow blowers, scarves, hats, and mittens. Kevy make sure you get that new pair of thermal footie PJs with the velcro dumper. Remember the rrhea ruined your last pair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 There's always the chance of a La Nina dud there (ala 2011-2012 or 1999-2000) but at the very least, even a year like that would be way better than last year's complete disaster. Hopefully this is one of those Ninas like 2000-2001 or 2007-2008 when the snow just keeps on coming. ...Like someone left the faucet running. Stock up on snow shovels, ice skates, snow blowers, scarves, hats, and mittens. Kevy make sure you get that new pair of thermal footie PJs with the velcro dumper. Remember the rrhea ruined your last pair. Hopefully I am not living in Norwich by then. Ugghh. With the exception of a few good winters, not exactly snow country down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 ...Like someone left the faucet running. Hopefully I am not living in Norwich by then. Ugghh. With the exception of a few good winters, not exactly snow country down there. SE CT has actually been on a roll the past 6 or 7 years relatively speaking. Seemed to start with the Dec '09 storm where they jackpotted and have had several jackpots or near-jackpots since then...like Jan 27, 2011 and the one January storm in 2012 and some good ones in 2014. I'm sure their luck will run out at some point as climatologically they (at least on the coast near GON) are probably the worst spot in all of SNE for snow (even the SW CT immediate shoreline near NYC is probably no worse than them)...but they can still get some goodies sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 ...Like someone left the faucet running. Hopefully I am not living in Norwich by then. Ugghh. With the exception of a few good winters, not exactly snow country down there. Hilly terrain on the North side is actually excellent, the Thames river harbor where the PW measures is a pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Stock up the fire wood. Bring it on! I have 2 cords left from this past wood-burning season. The previous 17 years here I never finished with more than a half cord remaining, and in several winters was out there dumping trees for March and April fires. Our ash trees along the plowed road are reserved for just those occasions. (Or for when EAB arrives?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 SE CT has actually been on a roll the past 6 or 7 years relatively speaking. Seemed to start with the Dec '09 storm where they jackpotted and have had several jackpots or near-jackpots since then...like Jan 27, 2011 and the one January storm in 2012 and some good ones in 2014. I'm sure their luck will run out at some point as climatologically they (at least on the coast near GON) are probably the worst spot in all of SNE for snow (even the SW CT immediate shoreline near NYC is probably no worse than them)...but they can still get some goodies sometimes. Its often misunderstood how much a difference just inland from the coast the snow is much better in SECT. Records from places like GON, WST and Norwich all of which are on or near the water at extremely low elevations skew the reality. Although certainly not weeenie spots its not as bad 5-10 miles inland depending on elevation as one would gather. Places like Lebanon, Voluntown, North side of North Stonington are pretty weenieish. Add Feb 2015 to that, most snow I have ever seen in GON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Its often misunderstood how much a difference just inland from the coast the snow is much better in SECT. Records from places like GON, WST and Norwich all of which are on or near the water at extremely low elevations skew the reality. Although certainly not weeenie spots its not as bad 5-10 miles inland depending on elevation as one would gather. Places like Lebanon, Voluntown, North side of North Stonington are pretty weenieish. Add Feb 2015 to that, most snow I have ever seen in GON I grew up in new london a block from the sound. The snow just sucked. That's all that can be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 There's always the chance of a La Nina dud there (ala 2011-2012 or 1999-2000) but at the very least, even a year like that would be way better than last year's complete disaster. Hopefully this is one of those Ninas like 2000-2001 or 2007-2008 when the snow just keeps on coming. That's the silver lining of a year like last year...pretty much anything will be better. As long as it's 50%+ of normal snowfall it'll be a better winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 There's always the chance of a La Nina dud there (ala 2011-2012 or 1999-2000) but at the very least, even a year like that would be way better than last year's complete disaster. Hopefully this is one of those Ninas like 2000-2001 or 2007-2008 when the snow just keeps on coming. 99/00 I think was due that ridiculous cold pool south of Alaska, probably 98/99 too. Something like that seems highly unlikely this year. Who the hell knows what caused 11-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2016 Author Share Posted July 9, 2016 99/00 I think was due that ridiculous cold pool south of Alaska, probably 98/99 too. Something like that seems highly unlikely this year. Who the hell knows what caused 11-12. Thats a great point, blanket Nina statements can be challenging with so many other strong signals present. Our correlations with Nina are very weak, other signals can easily overwhelm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Found the 12/21/08 coastal front in my archive of images: The 12/16/07 storm had a beast CF too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 What's the precipitation correlation with those CFs? As in distribution of heaviest QPF...is it on the cold side or warm side of the front, or right over the front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 What's the precipitation correlation with those CFs? As in distribution of heaviest QPF...is it on the cold side or warm side of the front, or right over the front? It tends to be just on the colder side but can vary depending on slope of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 It tends to be just on the colder side but can vary depending on slope of the front. Yeah my gut was saying with the easterly flow it might end up on the leeward side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 It's interesting how it can be in a narrow area, or it spread out by like 15 miles. Would be neat to do some sort of study on the slope of fronts, easterly anomalies and distribution of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2016 Author Share Posted July 9, 2016 It's interesting how it can be in a narrow area, or it spread out by like 15 miles. Would be neat to do some sort of study on the slope of fronts, easterly anomalies and distribution of snowfall.naked twister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Found the 12/21/08 coastal front in my archive of images: The 12/16/07 storm had a beast CF too: Notice how a place like Wilmington MA can be colder than 1k Tolland CT. Source region nearby FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Notice how a place like Wilmington MA can be colder than 1k Tolland CT. Source region nearby FTW. Yeah when the CF strengthens it actually cools areas just north and northwest of it and enhances the low level drain while places further displaced out west slowly warm up. They can be really fun meso features. You often get enhanced snow growth too as the lower level lift in that 900mb zone is frequently in temps of like 10F which is excellent dendrite growth temp. Whereas the larger scale lift might be in less optimal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 I've noticed with these storms you guys in eastern NE always get these coastal fronts. Why is that? Can it happen else where for example NYC? Or is it geographical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 I've noticed with these storms you guys in eastern NE always get these coastal fronts. Why is that? Can it happen else where for example NYC? Or is it geographical? They can technically happen anywhere semi close to the coast but the topography of New England makes it much easier for them to form because the shape of the ME/MA coastlines. A wind off the cold land in Portsmouth NH can be off the warmer water on the coast of MA....and it helps the coastal plain of Maine goes uninhibited from near Houlton right down to MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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