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Moderate Snow Potential 4/4


ORH_wxman

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18z GFS shows how this weekend could certainly be the more noteworthy event of the two. That run doesn't look very impressive at all for Tuesday. Would still be an accumulating snow event but a slow 1-4" type deal.

GFS has been pretty ugly for several runs now. The foreign models definitely look better. No doubt about it.

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It developed a 2nd low which almost gave NYC and parts of coastal sne a snowstorm lol

 

Eh, that wasn't really that close...maybe closer for LI/NYC...but pretty warm there.

 

Maybe a little extra for the Cape at the end. Complete clown range for the NAM anyway.

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0z GFS looks a bit more robust compared to the 18z. Probably advisory for the pike region up into southern VT and NH.

 

 

00z GGEM is coming in more robust too vs 12z. It was already better than the GFS at 12z, but it still wasn't that impressive...maybe advisory, but the 00z run is probably borderline warning criteria for the pike region and maybe up into S VT/S NH if ratios are more like 15 to 1.

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As an non-snow aspect...record low maximums may be in jeopardy on 4/4...esp for ORH. BOS has a random 30F max in 1879 which probably is out of reach. ORH's 31F though is definitely beatable.

 

The 32F at BDL is debatable too...but def possible.

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Man the 00Z runs tossing the GFS obviously..were all south and ice cold with this one. Snow right to the south shore. Hopefully it sticks to the roads as well as everything else

 

They actually all looked a bit norht of 12z and warmer. I think CT may have some issues...you'll probably be fine, but there's def some warmer temps that get in there...esp southern half of state.

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is this a case where tomorrow robs the energy and there just is not enough juice left behind for this follow up system? I mean they are so close spatially, hardly 24 hrs apart

 

this situation comes along with some differences over that standard model.  The thermal gradient doesn't really displace that far S or E of the area post tomorrows arctic fropa.

 

this thing tomorrow is almost like a flat rock skipping off a pond - only in this case ... the rock is the N-stream wave, and the pond is the static heights S of our latitude.  That metaphor means the entire event transpires along a relatively flat amount of latitude, dispite being exceptionally energetic/dynamic.   

 

but you're right to at least question that amount of time between successive events, because synoptic scale recovery does play a roll.  it's just that looking at each situation individually, ...there are variances to that. 

 

having said all that, personally I suspect that tomorrow comes along with more impact and snow than the latter, anyway, and mainly just because the dynamics on that following system are so weak.  we'll see -

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this situation comes along with some differences over that standard model.  The thermal gradient doesn't really displace that far S or E of the area post tomorrows arctic fropa.

 

this thing tomorrow is almost like a flat rock skipping off a pond - only in this case ... the rock is the N-stream wave, and the pond is the static heights S of our latitude.  That metaphor means the entire event transpires along a relatively flat amount of latitude, dispite being exceptionally energetic/dynamic.   

 

but you're right to at least question that amount of time between successive events, because synoptic scale recovery does play a roll.  it's just that looking at each situation individually, ...there are variances to that. 

 

having said all that, personally I suspect that tomorrow comes along with more impact and snow than the latter, anyway, and mainly just because the dynamics on that following system are so weak.  we'll see -

 

I think GC will enjoy Monday more than Sunday.  In other words, we'll have to minor impact events out here.

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