OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Yeah it's almost a WCB well weak one on the GFS. Definitely WAA driven. What's interesting is the old rule of thumb that the heaviest snow falls along the 850 mb -8C isotherm would argue for farther north. That's square within the strongest f-gen too. But best lift and RH argues for south. BOX can enjoy it, I need my golf courses clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Yeah what's your average? You must be pretty close to the long term average, especially after tomorrow. You guys probably have departures from normal similar to what we had last winter up here, just a couple ticks under normal...but still with more warning events. Will and I talked about that the other day too...BOS with 8 winter storm warnings since the northern Greens have seen their last one. That's amazing. Well the Hingham guy I think it up to near 50" since 1981. Depends on period of record. Somewhere near that I suppose. Edit: I should run the numbers. It could be like 47" too. I know up through 2014 ince 1960 it was like 48.6" or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 radar upstream is a shred fest... one town in 1/2 mile vis, the next town is flurries.. there is a subtle trend there to fill in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Riding the 18z NAM into the sunset here. Argues for warning criteria snow from E CT over into SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I have to run from Albany NY to Waterbury CT tomorrow morning, leaving at 5:00am from Hazleton PA for Albany. I figure sometime between 9 and noon I'll be running across the Mass Pike over to route 8, then down into CT. Can anyone give me an idea of what local mets are thinking up that way...and what kind of road 8 is from the Pike to the state line... A very nice drive and fun road. But I would be very careful in the snow. A lot of a curves once you get into and around Otis and the roads in ct are crap so be careful. Safe travels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2016 Author Share Posted April 3, 2016 There's actually a warm layer that gets up to near PVD-HFD line...maybe even a bit north. Could see some pingers for a time...as it remains quite cold around 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Holy crap on the NAM soundings, a mid winter 9 hr thump in my hood,shows 8-10 across ECT to PWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Definitely WAA driven. What's interesting is the old rule of thumb that the heaviest snow falls along the 850 mb -8C isotherm would argue for farther north. That's square within the strongest f-gen too. But best lift and RH argues for south. BOX can enjoy it, I need my golf courses clear. I've heard that one a few times, but what was the logic behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I've heard that one a few times, but what was the logic behind it? Well if you think about it, that would place your DGZ (-12 to -18) somewhere north of 850, where you typically find your strongest lift in synoptic systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2016 Author Share Posted April 3, 2016 I've heard that one a few times, but what was the logic behind it? In a fairly typical storm, the best lift will be above 850mb...say in the 700mb range, which is usually a bit colder, so it will be in the best dendritic growth. edit: oceanstate beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Well if you think about it, that would place your DGZ (-12 to -18) somewhere north of 850, where you typically find your strongest lift in synoptic systems.Ahh so it's snow growth related...I was thinking banding related for some reason. Like the best forcing somehow ends up there. Can see why you wouldn't want to use that rule in WAA situations or SWFE where it's -8C H85 but -1C at H75-H8. But overall that sounds like our upslope -10C rule...once H85 hits -10C or lower in upslope, it's game on for good snow production as the best lift over the Spine is usually right at that level or a few thousand feet above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Kevin-Steve-Scooter jackpot on the 18z RGEM. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Kevin-Steve-Scooter jackpot on the 18z RGEM. Shocking.30 hr modern technological map, with point and click on my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Kevin-Steve-Scooter jackpot on the 18z RGEM. Shocking. Right through TAN also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 10:1 and Kuchera snow maps for 18z RGEM are worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Total RGEM 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I like how some mesos have a little OES in April along pym county. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I like how some mesos have a little OES in April along pym county. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I'm loving Napril so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 10:1 and Kuchera snow maps for 18z RGEM are worlds apart.nice ratios in ORH county gets them over 6 inches 10-1 and Kuchera same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2016 Author Share Posted April 3, 2016 10:1 and Kuchera snow maps for 18z RGEM are worlds apart. There's a warm layer to watch for down south...kind of a weird system...it is very cold initially, then it warms aloft rapidly, then everything collapses SE and cools again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Sorry no futility record for CON. With nearly 150 years of precip data that would have been impressive. If things break right, it might not even be a top 5 worst snowfall season. Farmington co-op currently standing at 3rd lowest in 123 winters, but would need only a few tenths to slide back to #4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 There's a warm layer to watch for down south...kind of a weird system...it is very cold initially, then it warms aloft rapidly, then everything collapses SE and cools again.soundings are very unstable too. Another fun storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2016 Author Share Posted April 3, 2016 soundings are very unstable too. Another fun storm Yeah it should be fun...really cold for midday April too and it will need it. Even with that cold, anytime the rates are low, that sun angle will be felt. But keep moderate snow or better and it won't matter...and of course that really cold airmass will help. There's been a lot of grumpy jackpot fetish posts in this forum recently...so I'm gonna try and avoid the jackpot discussion this storm...maybe not until after it has started. Seems to take away from the fun for me. I will say there's pretty solid ML fronto, so some unpredictable bands will show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 This reminds me so much of Napril 2005 I think was the year...when we had back to back snowstorms in the first week of the month. At least in my general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 There seems to be good mid level forcing just north of rain snow line coincidently. There could be a narrow zone of good snow just north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Yeah it should be fun...really cold for midday April too and it will need it. Even with that cold, anytime the rates are low, that sun angle will be felt. But keep moderate snow or better and it won't matter...and of course that really cold airmass will help. There's been a lot of grumpy jackpot fetish posts in this forum recently...so I'm gonna try and avoid the jackpot discussion this storm...maybe not until after it has started. Seems to take away from the fun for me. I will say there's pretty solid ML fronto, so some unpredictable bands will show up. I get that the western and northern folks are upset, angry and frustrated..Lord knows i would be, and my time will come when this area gets boners in the behind time and again like they have..and it's even ok to complain a little bit. No problems with that..But MPM type stuff this morning was just gouge your eyeballs out with a plastic spoon type stuff.. Always doubting, always whining, always meh to everything..that kind of stuff has just got to stop. Here many folks were enjoying the storm and whatever they were getting,, and he was meh meh meh meh meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2016 Author Share Posted April 3, 2016 I get that the western and northern folks are upset, angry and frustrated..Lord knows i would be, and my time will come when this area gets boners in the behind time and again like they have..and it's even ok to complain a little bit. No problems with that..But MPM type stuff this morning was just gouge your eyeballs out with a plastic spoon type stuff.. Always doubting, always whining, always meh to everything..that kind of stuff has just got to stop. Here many folks were enjoying the storm and whatever they were getting,, and he was meh meh meh meh meh I don't mind a little complaining...we all do it. Esp if you are getting royally porked (ironically, I think MPM deserves to get his ranting in this winter...though he was actually smart and checked out mostly after a certain point). What bothers me more is when you're still getting snow (and others are totally whiffing)...but you complain about getting an inch or two less than someone else. Basically just obsessing over the jackpot. I probably shouldn't let it affect me...but it has seemed to permeate the threads more than usual. Maybe it's just the crappy winter...but even the last couple winters which were good seemed to have more than we did in the past. I just think back to like a winter such as '07-'08...we joked "congrats dendrite" like every storm...but we were still enthusiastically tracking the events and everyone seemed to be enjoying their 6" of snow even if it flipped to sleet while it was 13" up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I get that the western and northern folks are upset, angry and frustrated..Lord knows i would be, and my time will come when this area gets boners in the behind time and again like they have..and it's even ok to complain a little bit. No problems with that..But MPM type stuff this morning was just gouge your eyeballs out with a plastic spoon type stuff.. Always doubting, always whining, always meh to everything..that kind of stuff has just got to stop. Here many folks were enjoying the storm and whatever they were getting,, and he was meh meh meh meh meh I can't believe you actually wrote that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I don't mind a little complaining...we all do it. Esp if you are getting royally porked (ironically, I think MPM deserves to get his ranting in this winter...though he was actually smart and checked out mostly after a certain point). What bothers me more is when you're still getting snow (and others are totally whiffing)...but you complain about getting an inch or two less than someone else. Basically just obsessing over the jackpot. I probably shouldn't let it affect me...but it has seemed to permeate the threads more than usual. Maybe it's just the crappy winter...but even the last couple winters which were good seemed to have more than we did in the past. I just think back to like a winter such as '07-'08...we joked "congrats dendrite" like every storm...but we were still enthusiastically tracking the events and everyone seemed to be enjoying their 6" of snow even if it flipped to sleet while it was 13" up north. the jackpot today was 7-8 inches, so you mean only those who complained bc they had 5 or 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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