Amped Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 First time I've seen flakes in April here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Very interesting note re bolded in updated LWX AFD... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC948 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH CLOUD COVERDISSIPATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WESTERLY WINDS. SNOW SHOWERSOVER THE MTNS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID50S.NEXT SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS WILL AMPLIFY SEWDWITH COMBO OF HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LEADING TOUPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. PRECIP WILLBEGIN TO ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FCST AREA AROUND03Z BASED ON LATEST NSSL WRF-ARW MODEL. SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MTNSWITH RAIN IN THE REST OF THE AREA. TIMING OF WINTER WX ADVZY WASSHORTENED BASED ON THIS TIMING AND CUT BACK EARLIER AT 18ZTOMORROW AS HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE AND S/W TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THEMTNS SHOULD CUT DOWN IN SNOW ACCUMULATION SIGNIFICANTLY. TOTALSNOW ACCUMS OF 3-5 INCHES EXPECTED.&&.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREAAS VERY LOW THICKNESSES AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION WOULD MAKE FORSNOW TO REACH THE SFC ON SNOW SQUALLS. ALSO...MAY NEED TO ADDTHUNDER ON VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES OF 300 J/KG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Thundersnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Snowing in La Crosse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Snowing in La Crosse Your snow total doesn't add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This looks very interesting as precip mass dives toward nc/sc coastline and turns north Intense sun and 25F temps aloft makes for rare dynamics both day and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This looks very interesting as precip mass dives toward nc/sc coastline and turns north Intense sun and 25F temps aloft makes for rare dynamics both day and night. Since few events live up to the model hype I think it will be a dud...but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Since few events live up to the model hype I think it will be a dud...but who knows Not looking at models but rather radar and water vapor Models do not predict weather, they offer options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I fully expect heavy snow and whiteout conditions by morning. Well, I hoping for that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Snowing at Minneapolis airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Not looking at models but rather radar and water vapor Models do not predict weather, they offer options Fair statement. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Someone in PA will probably get dumped on. But that's not us I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Whiteout conditions at MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Thundersnow!Wut?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC325 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN AS ITCROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THEREGION SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAYFOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDSIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER THE WRNGREAT LKS WILL AMPLIFY SEWD NEXT 24 HRS BECOMING A CLOSED LOWALOFT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCEA DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM NWRN PA LATE TONIGHT TONEAR PHL BY 12Z SAT. COMBO OF HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER LEVELDIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT BEGINNINGAROUND 03Z IN HIGHLAND COUNTY SPREADING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ANDEXITING NORTHEAST MD AROUND 12Z-13Z SAT. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTEDTONIGHT EXCEPT FOR RA/SN MIX ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALLSNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPBETWEEN 12Z-15Z. AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL OF -37C AT 500 MB PER 12ZECMWF MOVES ACROSS MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LAPSE RATESWILL BECOME VERY STEEP WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOWSQUALLS BECOMING HIGHLY LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER NRN HALF OF THEFCST AREA AND NORTHEAST MD. THE CLOUD PHYSICS THUNDER PARAMETERFROM BOTH SREF AND NAM SHOW VALUES OF 1 OR GREATER EAST OF THEBLUE RIDGE INDICATING CLOUD ELECTRIFICATION AND THUS THUNDERSTORMSPOSSIBLE. SO THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED TO THE FCST MAINLY FOR THEEAST PART OF THE FCST AREA. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY WITH GUSTSIN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS (GUSTS 40KT ORGREATER) ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BUT GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERSAPPEAR A SAFE BET. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENINGWITH RAPIDLY LOWERING INVERSIONS AND PRECIP ENDING WITH LOSS OFDAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 #jackpotville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 sorry, just practicing for when i get thundersnow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 It looks like somewhere between say Bel Air and NYC is going to get a pretty nice event. A lot of the short range models seem to have shifted south, though obviously they are pretty far out into the future to be reliable at this point, but another shift south could put parts of northern Baltimore in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Low of 23 Sunday morning...seriously? Not at all into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 sorry, just practicing for when i get thundersnow tomorrow You moved to NE MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 It looks like somewhere between say Bel Air and NYC is going to get a pretty nice event. A lot of the short range models seem to have shifted south, though obviously they are pretty far out into the future to be reliable at this point, but another shift south could put parts of northern Baltimore in play. If there is going to be a period of heavy(accumulating) snow with this event, its seems eastern PA into NJ, maybe somewhere pretty close to Philly, would be the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 It looks like somewhere between say Bel Air and NYC is going to get a pretty nice event. A lot of the short range models seem to have shifted south, though obviously they are pretty far out into the future to be reliable at this point, but another shift south could put parts of northern Baltimore in play. NAM shifted the main precip area south but the pivot north. Not like I'm going to get anything anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 You moved to NE MD? I didn't even read the AFD, just assumed it was for my back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 You moved to NE MD? Of course we all know NE MD GETS DESTROYED! Anybody know what the latest date of an inch of snow is for Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Always fun to see this in the zones... pretty rare to even see it mentioned in April: .SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLEOR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WESTWINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCEOF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. From the ZFP for Fairfax County fwiw, but its in the DC one as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 NAM shifted the main precip area south but the pivot north. Not like I'm going to get anything anyway. Yeah it looks like somewhere west of Philly is the jackpot area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This will be the best storm ever. Woo snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Too many weekends lately featuring cold and/or high wind and/or rain/snow. Kinda gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Of course we all know NE MD GETS DESTROYED! Anybody know what the latest date of an inch of snow is for Baltimore? RAP pummels NE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 HRRR gives me 1.8". Somebody wake me up before it melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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