April Pattern Disco -2016

[CoastalWx]

I'll believe it when I see it. Lots of extended euro faux snow this year. With that said, it definitely looks cool. Not much naping.

 

 

Yeah but our April snow threats verify this year.

 

 

I probably wouldn't forecast snow that late until it got inside of 72 hours...but it's funny to see it appearing on various model runs. That is a sick PV in SE Canada.

 

Different from 4/87 which had a deep trough diving SE which helped flash to snow. This is like a polar delivery of dry air helping to Tw down to freezing. Obviously model fun this far out...but the cold seems to be there to a point.

[Cold Miser]

Been some decent rains here this month...along with snow of course.

[Ginx snewx]

Been some decent rains here this month...along with snow of course.

Drought!

[Sugarloaf1989]

The one thing I did notice is how the snow/cold around 4/4 really slowed down leaf out around here. The trees are about 85% bare.

[wxeyeNH]

The one thing I did notice is how the snow/cold around 4/4 really slowed down leaf out around here. The trees are about 85% bare.

Didn't matter up here.   100% bare.  Noticed the first kinda yellow forsythia this morning.  

[Sugarloaf1989]

wxeyeNH, on 19 Apr 2016 - 3:43 PM, said:

Didn't matter up here.   100% bare.  Noticed the first kinda yellow forsythia this morning.  

 

Same thing here, most of the Forsythia are hardly blossoming, that's about 1 week behind normal. Most Cherry, Dogwood and Bradford Pear are still dormant.

[Damage In Tolland]

Same thing here, most of the Forsythia are hardly blossoming, that's about 1 week behind normal. Most Cherry, Dogwood and Bradford Pear are still dormant.

Man..must a cold place there in the CTRV.. Hiltons are all alive with blooms on all those species

[metagraphica]

I have an idea for a sci-fi thriller novel called, "Fire Storm" - tho it would be too niche to appeal to many...

 

it starts with a 10 year sort of lower than normal system hemispheric pattern that targets s-se canad the Lakes and New England.  then we get a uber drought summer... talkin' Quabin Res down to ancient church steeples poking out of the water down near the bottom of a ringed escarpment type desperation... think lake mead's current dilemma in a region where such deficits pretty my can't happen - or can they in a GW   

 

then, this orange pine diseases that killing groves of them along the area highways, turning them all into a 50 to 100 foot tall roman candles in wait.  plus, the drought is severe enough that even the deciduous specious have that mid September wilt vomit green by early July ...while 97 F / 52% RH continues to suck life out of the broad-band biota from southern Ontario to the Nation's capital. 

 

then, a lightning strike's some hapless tree 30 mi NW of Toronto Canada during a the generation of a derecho...  50 to 90 mph fire wind explodes through the tinder and bows SE through New England in a 10 hour terror that is a first of its kind, and is for all intents and purpose ...an apocalypse by fire for this entire region... we're talking darkening skies and temperature's spiking eerily from infrared photonics like that which radiates from a distant meteorite impact.  birds flying in huge flocks (shameful steal) like that scene in Day After Tomorrow.... people in towns, fields, yards...everyone in pause, peering at the sky...wondering what the f is going on. 

 

i just don't think the development of plot is something that would keep a reader enthralled.  and the spectacle via the writing is ... too absurd to really be believable.  

Tip

Sounds pretty cool to me.  Perhaps you've already read these but if not they might be good inspiration on how to incorporate an interesting meteorological event into an interesting story.  Or, perhaps, they might just be a fun read for you.

Heavy Weather - Bruce Sterling

Mother of Storms - John Barnes

(mods feel free to move this to banter - just wanted to reply to Tip here)

[tamarack]

I have an idea for a sci-fi thriller novel called, "Fire Storm" - tho it would be too niche to appeal to many...

 

it starts with a 10 year sort of lower than normal system hemispheric pattern that targets s-se canad the Lakes and New England.  then we get a uber drought summer... talkin' Quabin Res down to ancient church steeples poking out of the water down near the bottom of a ringed escarpment type desperation... think lake mead's current dilemma in a region where such deficits pretty my can't happen - or can they in a GW   

 

then, this orange pine diseases that killing groves of them along the area highways, turning them all into a 50 to 100 foot tall roman candles in wait.  plus, the drought is severe enough that even the deciduous specious have that mid September wilt vomit green by early July ...while 97 F / 52% RH continues to suck life out of the broad-band biota from southern Ontario to the Nation's capital. 

 

then, a lightning strike's some hapless tree 30 mi NW of Toronto Canada during a the generation of a derecho...  50 to 90 mph fire wind explodes through the tinder and bows SE through New England in a 10 hour terror that is a first of its kind, and is for all intents and purpose ...an apocalypse by fire for this entire region... we're talking darkening skies and temperature's spiking eerily from infrared photonics like that which radiates from a distant meteorite impact.  birds flying in huge flocks (shameful steal) like that scene in Day After Tomorrow.... people in towns, fields, yards...everyone in pause, peering at the sky...wondering what the f is going on. 

 

i just don't think the development of plot is something that would keep a reader enthralled.  and the spectacle via the writing is ... too absurd to really be believable.  

 

Kind of like Peshtigo, WI in 1871, same night (and fed by the same wind) as the Chicago fire.  Or what would happen in the Jersey pine barrens with a repeat of 4/20/1963, now that there are about 10,000 homes in the footprints of that day's fires.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Kind of like Peshtigo, WI in 1871, same night (and fed by the same wind) as the Chicago fire. Or what would happen in the Jersey pine barrens with a repeat of 4/20/1963, now that there are about 10,000 homes in the footprints of that day's fires.

Or October 1947

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats Denver again next weekend. Not a bad look in the east either

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Tip

Sounds pretty cool to me.  Perhaps you've already read these but if not they might be good inspiration on how to incorporate an interesting meteorological event into an interesting story.  Or, perhaps, they might just be a fun read for you.

Heavy Weather - Bruce Sterling

Mother of Storms - John Barnes

(mods feel free to move this to banter - just wanted to reply to Tip here)

 

No i haven't ...  but, always good to get reference material ...not sure i need it. 

frankly, i've been told multiple times over years really to write write write - seems having no interest in the subject matter, and almost no ambition while coming of "intellectual age", i've somehow arrive to middle age as though i had worked feverishly at developing a talent in that area. 

 

and that's not boasting ... i really could care less. so if anyone is rollin' eye like i'm blowin' ego smoke, go f ur -self.  I'm not the one telling me to write novels over the years.  i don't give a rats azz - really.  

 

having said that, i did - I wrote "Dominia"   heh, figured why the heck not.  460 page sucker. it was actually kind of a fun, i have to admit. hm

 

anyway, it's a science-fiction novel about a hapless physicist who stumbles upon an idea, and when experimenting with nano-tech merging with biological design found in nature he inadvertently creates not only the first self-aware artificial intelligence...but isn't aware of that fact until said device starts psyonically controlling minds within it's psychic reach.  by that point, it's pretty fantastic and out there, admittedly, but come to find... heh, the basis for the science that makes up the fictional vehicle of that story was recently discovered as quite possibly being true, by the teams of Sir Roger Penrose.  quantum scale oscillations of microtubals appear to be instrumental in the emergence of consciousness.   as it were..or is rather, my hapless scientist was experimenting with magnetic/electric conductive carbon nano tubes fixed to organic substrate superconductors, because he thought the same thing: they vibrate and those vibrations produce the wave-form patterns we see on brain scans.  

 

then a tornado hits his lab...   

 

just kidding...

 

i wish that piece i wrote about the DEC 1992 storm and the personal experiences was still floating around... I got a lot of accolades on that one. 

 

it's still to this day, in spite of so many wonders, awe-inspiring naughtiness' by nature, my most favorite coveted snow storms of all time.     

[Ginx snewx]

Man..must a cold place there in the CTRV.. Hiltons are all alive with blooms on all those species

Paris Hilton?

[MJO812]

Congrats Denver again next weekend. Not a bad look in the east either

After it shows snow next week in new england

[Ginx snewx]

Kind of like Peshtigo, WI in 1871, same night (and fed by the same wind) as the Chicago fire. Or what would happen in the Jersey pine barrens with a repeat of 4/20/1963, now that there are about 10,000 homes in the footprints of that day's fires.

in the 1920s a firestorm went from Foster RI to Hope Valley RI in 20 minutes. 60 mph

[CoastalWx]

After it shows snow next week in new england

 

Looks cool and potentially wet.

[Damage In Tolland]

When does this dry pattern start to get really concerning given modeling dry look?

[Ginx snewx]

When does this dry pattern start to get really concerning given modeling dry look?

when it actually shows a dry pattern?

[Damage In Tolland]

WTF? .50-.75 thru 04/28 is wet?? LOl ..

[Ginx snewx]

WTF? .50-.75 thru 04/28 is wet?? LOl ..

map reading skills FTL lol

[Damage In Tolland]

As I said. .50-.75 as general rule where you and I live. And that's if we take that verbatim which we don't

[Ginx snewx]

As I said. .50-.75 as general rule where you and I live. And that's if we take that verbatim which we don't

lol ignore the model but make a comment that quotes a model. Didn't realize you were in Windham county sure looks like Tolland County is 1.1 there drama boy

[Damage In Tolland]

lol ignore the model but make a comment that quotes a model. Didn't realize you were in Windham county sure looks like Tolland County is 1.1 there drama boy

Soils and tinders are saturated. Inches of rain coming. Wet wet wet. Wet cubed

[Ginx snewx]

Soils and tinders are saturated. Inches of rain coming. Wet wet wet. Wet cubed

drama queens gonna drama

[Ginx snewx]

Rough day for the Mastiff man

@ericfisher With dry, hot summer progged.. Any concerns for #drought?

Eric Fisher

@TollandKev not at the moment. Not terribly dry now and looks unsettled next week. No real significant dryness heading into summer.

[Damage In Tolland]

His ideas tossed

[OceanStWx]

red flag issues don't really pertain to soil moisture content, per se - though soil moisture certainly helps.

 

it's mostly low RH in air, along with warm temperatures, accelerating the drying of dead material lane over from the previous winter. Being in said ultra dry environment, becomes a tinder-keg. red flag issues happen more frequently at this time of year then at any other time because this is the mostly likely tandem occurrence of warming temperatures with dry air. 

 

A month from now, green-up will be passe, and evapotranspiration from here to Timbuktu will mean the ambient RH will rarely fall below 50 % save for any brief incursions of polar air that only bounce back to 50% within 24 or so hours; otherwise, humid days will be arriving anyway, which limits the effectiveness of most fuel sources.

 

Right. It's mostly due to the fact that air masses moving out of Canada have winter time dewpoints but the April sun heats them to the point that RH values are more like PHX. The key is dry surface fuels, not really what's underneath. The surface fuels are what carry fires around here, and a little bit of wind goes a long way to helping that spread.

 

I'm no tree expert, but I'm guessing that the regional climate and resulting soil moisture is what keeps our trees from becoming susceptible to large forest fires. Our fire weather season may be more marginal than SVR when it comes to comparisons out west.

[OceanStWx]

so the 90 you called for with the big big heat the entire met community is talking about is still on?

 

Spin, spin, spin.

 

Just 5 days ago I posted the GEFS forecast that had a mean high temp at BDL today of 57. So not sure where the modeled 40s were coming from. Actually no mean modeled 40s in the 380+ hours of the forecast.

[Damage In Tolland]

Another day of red flags and burning for all of SNE. Stay safe all

[powderfreak]

lol ignore the model but make a comment that quotes a model. Didn't realize you were in Windham county sure looks like Tolland County is 1.1 there drama boy

If it was winter it would be 1-1.5" and 12-18" of snow...but he's in +KFS mode so he looks for the lowest QPF around.

The worst possible pattern for excitement this timeout year is "normal" or something close to it, where it's not wet but not dry.