Typhoon Tip Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Looks like MOS ended up alright despite the clouds... put up an 81 here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Kevin FTW It was 84 headed home from Cambridge 61F now here at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Still looks like a coolish pattern to me going forward. Obviously extent of any departures will be related to how much onshore flow we have, but overall.....looks like a BN tone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 After next week..it's off to the torches it would appear. Mayorch gonna roast Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 7m7 minutes ago Folks living in the East, especially the Northeast... get ready for a stretch of warm and sunny weather. #Spring 4 retweets4 likes Reply Retweeted 4 Like 4 More Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 3m3 minutes ago @MJVentrice Note this is after a week of cool and cloudy weather (next week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 That is solar anomaly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Weeklies were near normal weeks 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 That is solar anomaly lol. Note he said sunny and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 BDL still -1.7 MTD..Those cold nighttime lows killed it. #Notgonnabeabletadoit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Note he said sunny and warm He did not say AN. May is warm in a normal year. The graphics imply sunnier than normal though. I would not be shocked at AN temps though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 May does not look torchy to me at this time. Looks like we may be near normal give or take a degree on either side, by mid month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 He did not say AN. May is warm in a normal year. The graphics imply sunnier than normal though. I would not be shocked at AN temps though Meh...warm is always relative. If someone says a warm May I take it to mean above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Meh...warm is always relative. If someone says a warm May I take it to mean above normal. Warm and cool are not definitive. It would be more informative to say warm relative to normal or above normal or +1.0F or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 And if it's sunny .. It's warm and AN.. Especially inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 personally ... i'm less affronted by the notion of cooler than a normal (or at least suppressed to normalcy) wrt to temperatures spanning the next week to 10 days incoming. For the first time in this run up to the -NAO regime, the teleonnectors have apparently stabilized, and the bevy of operational guidance sources appear to be on an agreeable and most importantly, "continuous" page with their overall mass-field/trends therein. not talking snow here (frankly, i'd be shocked if anyone saw snow again below 2,000' elevation until the next autumn). things can and will change, but just as things set as of this morning, and taking into account the last 24 to 36 hour's worth of modeling cycles et al, that seems the way to go. after 7 to 10 days, i'm sure this entire picture will have changed. one thing that is interesting for me is that statistically, aren't warn ENSO event springs warmer than normal? i'm not entirely sure - hence the question - because I've also heard that warn ENSO winters tend to be back-built (which I assume to mean cold and snow loaded in the 2nd halves). Not sure if there is an over-lap there, or if somehow back-loaded winters magically and squarely ended upon the Meteorological first day of spring ... where/when it can be statistically shown (if perhaps in yore) that the patterns flipped warm... somehow i doubt the nebular affairs of fickle atmospheres behaved in such orderly prescriptions - but that's just me. so which is it.. ? maybe its just a summer thing. anyway, the GEFs derived mass-fields really portend a 'slow death of a cool pattern', type of transition. anyone saying anything else is selling something. so let me pitch my bargain there's an extenuating sort of factors/concern when assessing the immediate (meaning < three week) pattern tendencies. this is the time of year when doing so is next to kin of crazy. things are falling apart, the correlation to mass-fields that is. the wave lengths everywhere around the hemisphere are shortening some sin() value every day, the gradients between acmes and nadirs in the heights relaxing therein. what all that means is, despite any teleconnector look, or even how well the operational blends and trends fit into said looks ... things can break differently than those arguments would suggest from time to time. those times are when general summer loather's team gets into battle royales with Kevin and his army of sniper posters while both sides play games with interpretation. here's my theory: spring does this on purpose, because it is all a grand stage upon which the play-writes Marionette the players of folly and fame. who are the players - those unwitting egos, manipulated by the deception of model operators who are same gods that write the play. it's all an on-going comedy to keep them entertained. i bet if no one paid any attention and didn't allow them selves to get motivated by the lies, the show would normalize and things would be much more orderly in the reality that i clearly have presently parted company with ... of course, this would infuriate the gods, who would thus be deprived of their entertainment - at which time a comet would be discovered on a collision course with Earth... so, heh, maybe we ought to keep tryin'. heh. back here on Earth, i suspect we'll survive a pattern than would be colder than normal 200 years ago, but because GW is a trend line with a mighty steep slope, all this may mean something closer to normal. but no "heat" in that sense. not unless the second act of spring comes in with a huge plot twist. we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 And if it's sunny .. It's warm and AN.. Especially inland In and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 In and up. In Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Warm and cool are not definitive. It would be more informative to say warm relative to normal or above normal or +1.0F or whatever.Sorry, but that makes no sense. A warm December is still technically cold. A cold July is still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Sorry, but that makes no sense. A warm December is still technically cold. A cold July is still warm. Huh - "relative to normal" is perfectly mathematically correct, and in fact, is the parlance of science. I guess you mean, 'makes no sense' relative to the vernacular of Jo Jack internet - okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Euro has a lot of 30s at 18z on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 Big turnaround Wednesday Monday looks warm 90 and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Big turnaround Wednesday Monday looks warm 90 and south LOL Wednesday turnaround. Monday could be in 60s but lots of clouds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 30's Tues to near 60 isn't a turnaround? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 I'm not sold on 60 for many areas unless it's sunny and it's BDL. There is more to SNE than a river valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 I'm not sold on 60 for many areas unless it's sunny and it's BDL. There is more to SNE than a river valley. Not in the warm season there isn't. It gets ignored though once winter starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 There's more to SNE than an east facing shore town on NE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Yes there is. It's why I incorporate that into my forecasts..unlike some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 There's more to SNE than an east facing shore town on NE winds Hear Hear ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Models are downright frigid Tuesday aftn. GFS with temps near 32F in SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Huh - "relative to normal" is perfectly mathematically correct, and in fact, is the parlance of science. I guess you mean, 'makes no sense' relative to the vernacular of Jo Jack internet - okay. When a professional met states "get ready for a warm and sunny stretch" I take that to mean warm relative to normal...aka above normal. I don't take it as "it's going to be warm, but not necessarily above." Let's say he said it in reference to July. If we ended up with frequent cP airmasses resulting in mucho sun and avg temps of -2F across the region would you say he was correct? 70F and sun in July is technically warm to my skin, but I would not call the day warm. Is an 85F degree day in Yuma in July a warm day too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Models are downright frigid Tuesday aftn. GFS with temps near 32F in SE NH.lol...that's snow here midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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