Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 Looks rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Looks rainyquite the conundrum you are in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 LOL at the massive changes on 00z Euro. Score one for Tip and his GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Coolest days were always with rain. Even if boundary is north, pretty colors don't care about onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 Euro went from a week+ of well below normal. to 1-2 coolish days, then normal then back to Well above. GGEm basically was correct if those changes hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 It's actually most;y BN through the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 It's actually most;y BN through the week. Well above later in the 8-10..Next week has a few coolish days then normal as soon as sun comes out. Thank God too. Was dreading a week of cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Well above later in the 8-10..Next week has a few coolish days then normal as soon as sun comes out. Thank God too. Was dreading a week of cool10-12C 850s for BDL that run. Maybe they squeak out an 80F to close out the month afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 10-12C 850s for BDL that run. Maybe they squeak out an 80F to close out the month afterall. Well let;s hope it keeps that torch look. Tip and I had painstakingly laid out why it wasn't wise to buy the Euro cold and how it loves to dig troughs too deep and runs cold in the days past day 5..but some folks were hell bent for leather that it was going to be cold and snow. You almost wonder now if that boundary ends up even more north giving you guys ups there most of the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 All models were cold and are still chilly next week. Have a day believing day 9 warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Let me know how the installing and drought is going on 5/1. K, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 LOL..good luck with a cold, week next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 The chilly weather was and is always when it rains and NE flow. If it's dry it will be warmer. But I certainly would not bias warm with a front to our south for a prolonged period of time. This below normal April will be one of the ages as the earliest install ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 Will the month still come in BN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 The chilly weather was and is always when it rains and NE flow. If it's dry it will be warmer. But I certainly would not bias warm with a front to our south for a prolonged period of time. This below normal April will be one of the ages as the earliest install ever. Looks AOA to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Coc a doodle dew Chamber day enroute. Muggier tomorrow before the front with a possible good Tstorm for Western Mass .Should be beautifully dry nice weekend. Next week is pretty ugly from Mon on but the rooster returns in time for next weekend. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE 50S TO AROUND 60...MILDEST ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. AS COOLER AIR SLOWLYFILTERS IN...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSSN CENTRAL AND W MA...WHICH MIGHT MEAN A LITTLE MIX WITH WET SNOWMAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE...RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S.HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT MIGHT MEAN COOLERTEMPS MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE SNOW. READINGS WILL BECOOL ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 40S AND50S.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OUTOF CENTRAL CANADA WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE PRECIP ENDS. CURRENTTHINKING LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE 00ZECMWF MAY BE OVERDONE WITH AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITHPOSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE. SHOULD SEE CLEARING /AT THIS POINT ANYWAY/WITH TEMPS LOOKING TO FALL BACK UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONALNORMALS.FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES LOOKS TO PUSH IN WITH COOLTEMPERATURES...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Will the month still come in BN? If next week was all sun and front north, probably not. It depends on where the front is. I know you like to look at oranges at 500mb...but with models having trouble with s/w timing...it has all the makings of you getting upset. It definitely is not as cold as the trough in the SW is a bit deeper than progged a few days ago, but it will depend on low pressure and where that front sets up. As always in April...tough to get cold with full sunshine. - departures usually are from clouds and onshore flow...esp later in month and May-Jun. We probably will get some nice drinks heading into early May too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 Looks like big tornado outbreak next week in southern plains. Big couple of weeks coming down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Will the month still come in BN? Are you talking about April? I'm assuming you are since this is the April pattern discussion thread....I'm running about 4° BN and I know that both BDL and ORH are BN. I know we still have ten days to go in the month but I think we'll end up BN. Right now my average temp is the coolest in the past 32 April's but that will probably change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 Are you talking about April? I'm assuming you are since this is the April pattern discussion thread....I'm running about 4° BN and I know that both BDL and ORH are BN. I know we still have ten days to go in the month but I think we'll end up BN. Right now my average temp is the coolest in the past 32 April's but that will probably change. I think you are right. Even with torch today and tomorrow and last few days of month. It won't be enough. NYC looks like they will come in AN.. So warmth is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 well... whatever happens, it shouldn't be ignored that the handling of this -NAO interval is looking pretty bad at this point. Although, in the model(s) defense(s) ...not that they should ever be blamed for accuracy in the time leads we were looking at all along. Folks should remember: those -NAO appeals and the impacts and all that ... it was always after D5 and had been all along. Now that it's coming inside that range, seeing the models sort of turn-coat and abandon the impact of it, and the amount of cooling departures is ...well, kind of still within error expectation even for the King Euro. Having said that, even now the Euro is demonstratively different with this thing on that 00z overall evoltuion, both synoptically and how it can. Kevin stumbled upon being right whether people want to believe it or not, that this was "quite possibly" sniffed out by the GGEM first, Myself, I noted two days ago was pulling the plug. Again, not taking trophies there; things could evolve back colder - but the tenor over the last 24 hours is clearly one that's taken a goodly bit of throttle off that thinking. Clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 well... whatever happens, it shouldn't be ignored that the handling of this -NAO interval is looking pretty bad at this point. Although, in the model(s) defense(s) ...not that they should ever be blamed for accuracy in the time leads we were looking at all along. Folks should remember: those -NAO appeals and the impacts and all that ... it was always after D5 and had been all along. Now that it's coming inside that range, seeing the models sort of turn-coat and abandon the impact of it, and the amount of cooling departures is ...well, kind of still within error expectation even for the King Euro. Having said that, even now the Euro is demonstratively different with this thing on that 00z overall evoltuion, both synoptically and how it can. Kevin stumbled upon being right whether people want to believe it or not, that this was "quite possibly" sniffed out by the GGEM first, Myself, I noted two days ago was pulling the plug. Again, not taking trophies there; things could evolve back colder - but the tenor over the last 24 hours is clearly one that's taken a goodly bit of throttle off that thinking. Clearly. Euro looks ugly IMHO, at least until D8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 The -NAO hasn't really changed. Just subtle differences in the PV and also the trough in the SW U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Euro looks ugly IMHO, at least until D8-9. perhaps...as is, but the trend is clear - tenor overall. obviously details can come along with huge impacts in April...like, if we can turn the wind around toward the GOM heat sink ...it doesn't matter what's going on aloft - draw the curtains if your a spring enthusiasts. and, that is pretty much what the euro solution (as is) is doing... it is backing off the -NAO pattern appeal, but still parking the boundary perfectly wrong for warm weather - i gotta go ahead a figure that since i hate April, there is no god, and satan thinks its funny...we'll go ahead and freeze our souls under 590 heights one way or the other - ahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 The -NAO hasn't really changed. Just subtle differences in the PV and also the trough in the SW U.S. Not sure what you mean? I think fiddling around and modulating the SPV component of that in such a way as to (possibly) bring big difference to how the evolution of those features affect/effect our weather ...certainly qualifies as "the handling of the -NAO" I'm not suggesting that the -NAO won't happen - that's not what I said. I said the handling of it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 And also - fwiw, the GEFs product at CPC has backed off the actual NAO number, anyway; the current outlook only modestly negative in the mean. It could be false, sure - just as is, as of last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Not sure what you mean? I think fiddling around and modulating the SPV component of that in such a way as to (possibly) bring big difference to how the evolution of those features affect/effect our weather ...certainly qualifies as "the handling of the -NAO" I'm not suggesting that the -NAO won't happen - that's not what I said. I said the handling of it - I didn't notice a huge change in the blocking. Just a shift north a tad and deeper SW U.S. Troughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 NAM and RGEM are both bone dry tomorrow except far NW areas of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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