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April Pattern Disco -2016

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

If it was 75/80 all day and didn't sea breeze it would be manageable. But my (maybe incorrect) interpretation was the cold currents and ocean up there would generate some nasty sea breezes most afternoons that would penetrate pretty far inland. That's just what I thought happened up there. Kind of how many afternoons along the Maine coast are ruined

 

It's like you think we live on another planet. Maybe an afternoon gets ruined in April or May, but by June it's just nature's AC. 

 

It's not like the water temps stay 48 year round. By late June they typically reach 60, and stay that way through the end of October.

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CT Valley Snowman

CT Valley Snowman

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Posted

Cool mornings helping to keep BDL departures somewhat in check, 35 here this morning. Looks like BDL departure stays BN for the month with the blocking pattern setting up, nice looking teleconnection spread / blocky look for some cooler weather to finish Napril , although the strong April sun should help negate things at times.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

One of the gfs runs yesterday (18z I think) had us in a pocket of cold air with LP riding just underneath. Do the ensembles show any LP in tandem with the cold heights?

 

There's general low pressure to the southwest of us. It's getting ridiculously late though for snow, but if the timing was perfect, it wouldn't shock me. Either way, that's a cold pool of air swinging down from Quebec/Ontario.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Looks like we finally have a -NAO modeled that's higher than median probability - more than merely by feel of thing, too, seeing as every modeling tool known to the art and science of deterministic Meteorology shows the N. Atlantic wall.

 

It'll be interesting to see what it does to modulate our local weather.  If this were January, I would not actually be inclined to think a bigger event would come of it all, despite the (oft' 'false') ominous appeal of that 576-like DM height node in the vicinity of Greenland, with a -3 SD black hole pinched off N of NS/NF region.  Because, as the blend of all models construct ...that appeal is proven time and time again to be "too much" of a good thing.  

 

Not that anyone asked for any of the following ... we all know that it can snow and snow hard as late as May; tho, with the obvious rarefication in mind.. I was looking back at the May 1977 and other events last evening, because this growing obviousness for a strong -NAO push, incoming over the next 7-10 days, is pretty clearly going to happen.  Assuming so.. I was looking over that fabled case thinking I was going in seeking a paradigm for which modeled spring snows should be compared.

 

Whether that is true or not, that case actually re-affirms the hypothesis that strong NAOs are - contrary to public opinion - detrimental to organizes stronger events.  At least, not from the vantage point of NCEP's US.S. Daily Weather Maps/DjVu products. This is/was true across April 1987, and May 2002, both years that featured snow or snow in the air at unsual late dates.  I don't want to erupt an argument out of this ...but, sufficed it is to say, the NAO domain from that perspective evolved only minor by comparison, ridge blocks during NAO modulation prior to and during the cold events in New England. 

 

In fact, the 1987 April 29 event was actually preceded by a clear modulation in the PNAP component of the PNA, and the NAO appeared almost entirely non factored. 

 

What also stands out as a possible 'cause' for the -NAO popularity ...could be an interpretation issue in the numbers.  It's speculation, so again ...no argument intended, but it really appears that the cold coring into New England might "default" the NAO domain space into a negative mode.  The idea there is ...whether there is higher heights/blocking over the D. Straight/Greenland area, with some counterbalancing interloping period of lower heights in the Canadian Maritimes and NE U.S., OR, a very deep anomaly in New England, with a more neutral height field over D. Straight/Greenland, ...those notably different synoptic scenarios don't matter to the EOF derivatives. They don't qualify those numbers, they just look at the sign of the polynomial roots.  Both would be equally negative.  I just think this is an interesting question, ...worthy of exploration, because it would also possibly provide some explanation as to why -NAOs pop up all the time around big storms down this way (or deep cold anomalies in general), yet, the "appeal" of a NAO block is quite often not there. 

 

Fascinating... 

 

Anyway, that's my weekly exploratory thought rant starring the most eye-glossing nerdy topic imaginable.  Sorry :)

 

So, taken fwiw to you, my conclusion is that the cold heights and thickness that this -NAO passage is indirectly going to impose across or area, seems more likely to be a cold wind engine more than anything else.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

ASOUT

 

Chris posted the ensemble guidance that showed about equal chances of very warm and very cold weather. So the current trend toward cold end of month was as likely as the warm one that Kevin was locking in.

 

In short, there was no real reason to be locking in big warm departures.

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