CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 The Kenyans are home in ice baths by then Wind whistling through their bones like wires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 Wind whistling through their bones like wires.SPS issued for downed Kenyans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 Special PNS due to multiple Kenyans down all over BOS area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 With a dry next 10-14 days..you wonder how many red flag warnings we'll start to see Skeptical but warm and dry is my favorite spring weather. Boring weather season but I expect daily model swings and BDF surprises to spoil. Luckily WNE can pull some pretty sweet days while the eastern brethren do the BD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 2 full days of early summer torch..Looking forward to tanning . ECMWF FROPA DELAYED UNTIL MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS REACHING 70-75 MUCH OF SNE EXCEPT FOR THE S COAST. UKMET AND GGEM ALSO SLOWER THAN GFS AND KEEP SNE IN WARMER AIR MON. WE USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARD ECMWF I don't find this modeling behavior surprising at all. The GFS has a progressive bias - to me - over eastern N/A. It is not always very obvious and seems to express differently depending on the pattern and so forth. Contrasting, the Euro/GGEM and UKMET for that matter ...they all tend to 'dig' too much S, too soon, in their respective middle ranges. This gives a kind opposite correction necessity for the GFS -vs- those others. I can swear on several occasions over recent years, when the GFS appear too flat and stretching the wave lengths to the point of no system, while the Euro has a stem wound bomb over Chicago, what ended up happening was something more situated with a nor'easter on the EC. ...not this immediate last year, of course, seein' as nothing seemed to happen at all...ha. Anyway, it's complex but the question of the BD on Monday came down to the GFS being too flat and fast (as usual) from western Ontario to Nova Scotia, such that the frontal mechanics driving it along, and the attending trailing high pressure, were all shunted E too fast and that meant that the front came through more from due N and/or as a BD. Contrasting, the Euro solution ilk dug more and the front comes through less like a BD and more standard from the NW or NNW... The 06z GFS has now corrected squarely toward the Euro - that solution is no longer technically a BD at all... Doesn't necessarily mean one or the other is correct at this juncture - could modulate back toward the GFS or even more ampted the other way, for other reasons, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 welp ... 'been following this all along, this period as we approache(d) the ides of the month, and looking beyond; it was becoming more and more clear that this was this particular year's calendar chosen time for the real flip of 'tendency' and 'appeal' in the atmosphere ...sans winter, herald spring. this particular post frontal cool wave is briefer by comparison to previous, also coming along with less biting standard deviation. Offset by the sun? probably a pleasant afternoon regardless... We warm up by happenstance of a rotted polar air mass having been meat tenderized by the sun over the next several days, and the next trough incursion and its associated cool down, set now to arrive safely after the last limper hobbles across the Marathon finish line, is just like this one...briefer by comparison, not very deep, and in fact, most models bulge +10 C 850 air and decent mixing gradient from the OV up to NE before next week is even over. So on balance, winter is finally over in my mind (in the models); but I feel pretty confident we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Skeptical but warm and dry is my favorite spring weather. Boring weather season but I expect daily model swings and BDF surprises to spoil. Luckily WNE can pull some pretty sweet days while the eastern brethren do the BD. This. Looks like a fantastic stretch upcoming out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 This. Looks like a fantastic stretch upcoming out here. It really should be ... if you can stand the "chill" , the sun offsetting even really starts the stretch today; but if today isn't your bag than by Saturday and Sunday, those pretty clearly headed for 'top 10' afternoons. But we are stagnated pattern-wise under the south nose of a big high pressure, that will warm more and more by day, so tomorrow ...Friday, these aren't terrible days really, either. Anything like that we get in April ...heh, sacrifice a virgin man - it can be indescribably much worse as we know. Anyway, i'd have thrown Monday into that mix but I'm not altogether certain the front delay idea won't vacillate back earlier in the runs - tho it doesn't seem that's going to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Interesting retro storm incoming for NS. Some models put down warning snows. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Interesting retro storm incoming for NS. Some models put down warning snows. Yikes. i don't claim to be an aficionado on NS climate but I'm almost willing to bet even there you're into cat's paw season in scenario like that, when a stacked system briefly retrogrades inside these stagnated moderating cool spring air masses. we get those down this way too in april every so often, and you might get a band of parachutes and sleet going but it ends as light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 i don't claim to be an aficionado on NS climate but I'm almost willing to bet even there you're into cat's paw season in scenario like that, when a stacked system briefly retrogrades inside these stagnated moderating cool spring air masses. Yeah it will be a slopfest at best although higher elevations might do ok. Getting into rare territory for accumulating snows around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 yeah monday's fropa is looking less and less like a BD at all at this point. straight NW-SE mover... nice cool shot modulates quickly by mid week and we're back at it according to plan. la-la range gfs mighty warm. 588 dm ridge and 564+dm thickness over massive area east of 90. details to change. pna is negative with neutralized nao supports some sort of warm finish to the month. we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 yeah monday's fropa is looking less and less like a BD at all at this point. straight NW-SE mover... nice cool shot modulates quickly by mid week and we're back at it according to plan. la-la range gfs mighty warm. 588 dm ridge and 564+dm thickness over massive area east of 90. details to change. pna is negative with neutralized nao supports some sort of warm finish to the month. we'll see Those retro storms always make me nervous this time of year, with the NAO going so far neg they can tap cold and send it south pretty quick. Modeling has again trended more north with latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Those retro storms always make me nervous this time of year, with the NAO going so far neg they can tap cold and send it south pretty quick. Modeling has again trended more north with latitude. it may be the last important shot of this season... i mentioned awhile ago it appears we've turned the corner, and this runs no different, but it is an important cool shot - it's brevity and the idea of deep continental barotropic air source/transport by next fri-sat tells the seasonal tail tho. that comes in tandem with gef's -derived big recovery in nao numbers over the following week so pulling the westerlies n back east has mass-field merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 I would probably change the wording to crops or produce were destroyed then. Gardens just seems relatively benign. I bet Eek has a different opinion on that! haha. Yeah I can feel my blood pressure rising. 7/26/2011 was my 9/11. Nothing was ever the same again. I'm still triggered by the sight of purple pixels on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 We warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 it wouldn't shock me if the euro ends up too deep with near-by cut-off D7-10 and has to correct that feature somewhat less amplified, ...the flow flatter and less chilly. just like the close low needed work, it's really in the same ilk and pattern where these thing may be over assessed out in time like that. i dunno - with the pna going negatve and the nao neutralizing in that period, the ideas of warm appeals gain traction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 High of 56 on Tues (TWC) .... Yeah. Reality: Highs in low 40's for us with clouds and possibly OE showers or drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 High of 56 on Tues (TWC) .... Yeah. Reality: Highs in low 40's for us with clouds and possibly OE showers or drizzle. What? It's not a backdoor. It's a regular Nw to SE moving cold front with dry n flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 What? It's not a backdoor. It's a regular Nw to SE moving cold front with dry n flow After a closer look, you're right. Kinda had that look of the high being N/NE of us, but that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Amid the Napelodeon talk will be some SHSN possible Tuesday Night or Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Amid the Napelodeon talk will be some SHSN possible Tuesday Night or Wednesday.Noyes has 55-60 Tuesday and Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Noyes has 55-60 Tuesday and Wed What does he have for Tuesday night? Plenty of times in the spring can have overnight snow showers at temps in the 30s with daytimes in the 50s. I'd almost say it's likely up here. You get the CAA and hills causing showers of wet snow and graupel at 3-7am and then by afternoon it's 55F and partly sunny with scattered instability rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Mayorch !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 2F AN? Sounds like Mehyorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 the Euro backed off the cold incursion for overnight Monday through early Wednesday on its 0 Z run. whatever deterministic impressions are engendered about next week, that much cannot be altered. whether things verify that way remain to be seen, but the magnitude and duration continues to wane in the runs (not just the Euro at that) as that time gets closer. personally i don't find that behavior surprising as far as the Euro and GGEM go, because ...even though at times an amplified mid-extended range solution will do okay, those models edge on the 'too amplified' side as a persistent bias beyond 4 or 5 days; so correcting off the throttle on that thing isn't/wasn't altogether a bad idea based upon that alone. the Euro (as we thought) also backed off on the D7-10 thing it had in the 12z yesterday. ...interestingly, the 06z GFS represents.. i think the overall model trend of de-amplifying cold that's been going on across the pantheon of most guidance over the last week combined with the expectation of seasonal flip (also quite air apparently chosen in the runs during this 15th - 22nd of the month), keeps the "correction vector" milder. we'll see how things go.. i have to say though, the overnight tele's continue the flip in the PNA toward negative, with the NAO neutral-positive. that could spin up early heat as just likely as only meaning at or above normal during the 20th - the end of the month. we'll see on that too. 0Z Euro makes the conus warm by next thursday for everyone east of Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Point and click high temps continue to trickle down Saturday, went from 64 to 59 here. With the onshore flow due to the storm over the Atlantic and Omega block pattern, I'm skeptical of 70 on Sunday east of the CRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Take em up. Weak NE flow torches interior areas this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Take em up. Weak NE flow torches interior areas this time of year wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 GFS is very warm in weenie range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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