CT Rain Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Most of the time that's true. If you're modeled for a 3 day dumpster fire, usually by day 3 you've got a mix of sun and clouds and maybe a round of diurnal showers. Yeah - and this time the ensembles weren't terribly bullish on all this either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 You've abandoned your forecast of 6-8 days of clouds, rain, and below normal temperatures? That was fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 These west Atlantic abandoned spring cyclones happen though - duh. The models, carrying along a "virtual" presentation of the atmosphere out in time, don't really play dice with the atmosphere as much as we'd like to believe it is purely random ... out in time. Yes, there are emerging and decaying forces and it is up to the models to deduce which are veracious or fractal in nature - but the initial conditions must at least contain some vestige of them to see them out in time. Not that cut-off its self - per se - but the canvas that is created out in time where/when the models then paint the cut-off upon the chart, is at least indirectly ...sort of genetically related to the cut-off event. So yeah...it's a bit more philosophical in consideration, but I don't think the "mathematics" of virtual out in time is completely, initially, devoid of the forces that favor the cut-off. Muah hahahaha - now that everyone's morning has been proficiently saddled with a pop-cycle headache, my plan is complete... anyway, one of these years, we'll redux a 1987 and see the difference between the virtual and real cosmic dildo. May 2005 doesn't count - that was a full on L/W trough that happened to have a quasi-closed low rattling around inside of it, cycling through intensification episodes due to the N stream...blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Yesterday was a fantastic day all around, let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 The 1-2 days that has bugged me for a while is the April 18-20th period. Have to watch that. Sneaky cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Yesterday was a fantastic day all around, let's do this. yeah, i meant to get back with you on that - heh. it did in all fairness turn out much better up my way, but it just took a while. ended up 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Yesterday was a fantastic day all around, let's do this. I like drama... let's do this about 50 naut miles S of ISP! ....BUT, verify 70 to 80 first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 I like drama... let's do this about 50 naut miles S of ISP! ....BUT, verify 70 to 80 first that's the period in question. Been on and off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 2009. Also 1990, perhaps - Farmington touched 90 on 4/28 in each of those years, and never reached it again in either. Next warmest they've ever seen in April is 87, on 4/31/1899. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 What's up with the wind this year. Just came out of the Dr's office, windy as heck all of a sudden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 that's the period in question. Been on and off the charts. perhaps ... yeah, unfortunately it's just the 06z oper GFS and doesn't really have any support for the time being. but so long as it's brought up, that sucker dumps about 4 to 5" of total liq equiv inside the snow thickness over interior NS - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 What's up with the wind this year. Just came out of the Dr's office, windy as heck all of a sudden Decent mixing today. Can probably manage 30-35 mph gusts today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 11, 2016 Author Share Posted April 11, 2016 What's up with the wind this year. Just came out of the Dr's office, windy as heck all of a sudden So much warm/cold/warm/cold transitions..in a nino...generates more and higher wind than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 perhaps ... yeah, unfortunately it's just the 06z oper GFS and doesn't really have any support for the time being. but so long as it's brought up, that sucker dumps about 4 to 5" of total liq equiv inside the snow thickness over interior NS - Yes when I saw that, I almost threw up in my mouth. Dreadful if that panned out as modelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 So much warm/cold/warm/cold transitions..in a nino...generates more and higher wind than usual 2 things Nino brought wind and precip. Rivers are high here for the first time in two years and the ground is still wet. Wet soils colder spring/summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 11, 2016 Author Share Posted April 11, 2016 2 things Nino brought wind and precip. Rivers are high here for the first time in two years and the ground is still wet. Wet soils colder spring/summer? Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 So much warm/cold/warm/cold transitions..in a nino...generates more and higher wind than usual This is pretty much spring in the Northeast. Air masses tend to be drier (better mixing) and system tend to be strong than warm season (more wind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Nahbut dry soils bring heat according to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Was working trying to clean up the dead stuff in the woods but the wind chased me out,bunch of widow makers still around. Gust easy over 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 This is pretty much spring in the Northeast. Air masses tend to be drier (better mixing) and system tend to be strong than warm season (more wind). since Oct though it's been impressive wind events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 since Oct though Well cool season is windier on average. But I really don't think there is more at play than luck of the draw with wind cores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Well cool season is windier on average. But I really don't think there is more at play than luck of the draw with wind cores.it's been a very windy year,much more than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Hey Scott - your favorite -... a Sonoran heat release getting going on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Yeah that would make for some nice elevated sizzle if it weren't for the pesky trough in the SE. Congrats MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Yeah that would make for some nice elevated sizzle if it weren't for the pesky trough in the SE. Congrats MSP. and that's a early look/appeal for that - wow. nice mcc roller on D11 hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 12, 2016 Author Share Posted April 12, 2016 Trends last 24 hours to 70's interior Sunday and Monday and 65 Sat. Nape it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 Trends last 24 hours to 70's interior Sunday and Monday and 65 Sat. Nape itawesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 Trends last 24 hours to 70's interior Sunday and Monday and 65 Sat. Nape itMonday is still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 Trends last 24 hours to 70's interior Sunday and Monday and 65 Sat. Nape it Yes please. I'm kind of over burning the wood stove every night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 12, 2016 Author Share Posted April 12, 2016 Yes please. I'm kind of over burning the wood stove every night. Euro continues to bring the torch to areas away from water with 70+ Sunday and Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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