April Pattern Disco -2016

[Typhoon Tip]

is there a formally refereed definition of what "torch" means ? 

 

or is it just kinda sorta like a jive thing ...where anything at all above normal is a torch - 

 

for me, 'torch' immediately engenders a visualization of welder's tool, a Bunsen burner ...etc... and these devices run between 2,600 in the laboratory, to and some-20,000 +F for arc welding - so hot that it produces ultraviolate radiation.

 

my grand pappy (grhs) always use to say, "...Hotter than the blue-blazers out there...!" 

 

that's about the closest i've ever existentially connected the concept of a blow torch to the atmosphere, and any metaphor in doing so could ever be so validated.  still, when i think of that spear of air-blue translucent spear and the white-noise it makes, or see metallic targets glowing so brilliantly one is compelled to turn their eyes away ... I cannot help be feel that the term 'torch', even in so far as its use in the parlance of opine-America should be reserved for more important impact scenarios. 

 

suppose the Winter Olympics is postponed due to GW, ...that's a torch.  

2012, Midwest and Mid Atlantic heatwave ... torch

Hell, i'd even say a midland warm winter with no snow (the infamous ratter) is sufficiently impacting to both winter-business reliance, as well as macro-culturally sensible that it too gets an honorary distinction of a torch.

 

somehow... i don't feel like a < +1 SD ridge that because of it's orientation relative to the larger scaled synoptic layout, cannot even provide a well enough mixed boundary layer, shouldn't really count.  yes, the sun will crank lower level thickness and temps toward what deterministic Meteorologist commonly refer to as seasonally above normal - but the appeal stops there in my mind.   But that's my opine -

 

I don't know if the term has ever been formally vetted...  

[dendrite]

I agree John. I always thought it should be a daily temp or monthly avg that is at least 2SD above the mean. It's the old 68-95-99.7 rule. That would save the "torch" designation to only the top 2.5% of the days. "Torch" has evolved to mean any semi warm day for some on here. This week looks more like an ember than a torch.

[ORH_wxman]

I agree John. I always thought it should be a daily temp or monthly avg that is at least 2SD above the mean. It's the old 68-95-99.7 rule. That would save the "torch" designation to only the top 2.5% of the days. "Torch" has evolved to mean any semi warm day for some on here. This week looks more like an ember than a torch.

 

In the old days of eastern back in its toddler days of 2005-2006 I remember we used "torch" to define days in January that were in the 50s and 60s.

 

It has eventually turned into a high of 40F in January and a high of 65F in April and a high of 87F in July.

[klw]

Seeing as we have never been able to agree what NNE, CNE and SNE mean, I doubt we will ever be able to agree what "torch" means.

[Typhoon Tip]

In the old days of eastern back in its toddler days of 2005-2006 I remember we used "torch" to define days in January that were in the 50s and 60s.

 

It has eventually turned into a high of 40F in January and a high of 65F in April and a high of 87F in July.

 

interesting ...that evolution of language there.

 

i'd even take it further and define it's use (as it is used nowadays) as just abusive over-application whenever an opinion is just sour grapes.  

 

meow, wah wah wah, it didn't snow at 33.3 F "torch" 

 

but yeah, agree Will and Brian - if we're going to use the term torch, I wonder if it couldn't kill us to say the departure has to be > than 2 or so SD.  

 

anything below that is either someone's personal gripe or exaggeration in play - either way.  i don't have a problem with hyperbole - it's fun and expressive.  cool.  but when it's over and over and over again,... kind of loses that purpose, too.

[Damage In Tolland]

BDL is -5.4 MTD

 

With the coming warmer pattern..can they get back to at least normal for the month?

[CoastalWx]

They finish BN.

[ORH_wxman]

They finish BN.

 

Yeah we'll need a pretty good warm spell to erase all of that...not sure we get it. A string of +5 to +10  days isn't gonna get it done when you mix in a few -5s...you need like a nice block of +15s to really make a run at it.

 

There's BDFs too all over guidance in the extended...one of those patterns susceptible to them.

 

 

Anyways, that's my temp talk for the week before I gouge my eyes out.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah we'll need a pretty good warm spell to erase all of that...not sure we get it. A string of +5 to +10  days isn't gonna get it done when you mix in a few -5s...you need like a nice block of +15s to really make a run at it.

 

There's BDFs too all over guidance in the extended...one of those patterns susceptible to them.

 

 

Anyways, that's my temp talk for the week before I gouge my eyes out.

The 11-15 day wasn't exactly Speedo inspiring.  

 

Looks awfully boring too. Good time to be busy with other things. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The 11-15 day wasn't exactly Speedo inspiring.

 

Looks awfully boring too. Good time to be busy with other things. 

Great pattern for lawns growing and lawn work . Warm sunny days and cool crisp nights.

[Typhoon Tip]

Great pattern for lawns growing and lawn work . Warm sunny days and cool crisp nights.

 

man, you won't stop and nothing and then keep going with sneaking in a spin - 

 

i think realistically folks should go with seasonally mild perhaps across Sat - Mon/maybe Tue...then, if anything the extended goes seasonally cool.   i mean that's as is in the blend and so forth of dependable guidance sources.  the teleconnector - if this were January we'd be ginning up for a fun time.  unfortunately, when we map that on top of seasonality and seasonal change ... you end up with uneventful times.  

[OceanStWx]

The 11-15 day wasn't exactly Speedo inspiring.

 

Looks awfully boring too. Good time to be busy with other things. 

 

That was my take in the AFD yesterday, much more likely to be boring than above normal.

[Typhoon Tip]

That was my take in the AFD yesterday, much more likely to be boring than above normal.

 

Maine sucks until... pretty much mid August....  heh, it seems - 

 

spring robs people of nice sensible weather due to NE's unique butt porking topographic geography meets with the oceanic heat sink at the terminus of the Labrador Current anyway...(or should it be 'tip of the labrador dildo') the two working together seems at times to violate physics just to keep said sensible weather miserable (  ) 

 

but the frequency of that theft obviously favors up your way - by the time one's at or N of PWM, there's three seasons. autumn, winter, and oscillatory failing summer

[Damage In Tolland]

man, you won't stop and nothing and then keep going with sneaking in a spin - 

 

i think realistically folks should go with seasonally mild perhaps across Sat - Mon/maybe Tue...then, if anything the extended goes seasonally cool.   i mean that's as is in the blend and so forth of dependable guidance sources.  the teleconnector - if this were January we'd be ginning up for a fun time.  unfortunately, when we map that on top of seasonality and seasonal change ... you end up with uneventful times.  

The coast will be cooler...but Sat is 65 and Sun/Mon are 70+ interior SNE. Then a back door to normal after.

[Typhoon Tip]

The coast will be cooler...but Sat is 65 and Sun/Mon are 70+ interior SNE. Then a back door to normal after.

 

much better...

 

yeah, can't say i disagree if going only by the general layout of synoptic charts at this time.  

 

MOS will tend to under-cut what actually happens; definitely at this range, because unlike raw machine guidance numbers, MOS has climo- tricks applied to help normalize things thatta way.  depending upon an 84 F high out of a MOS product's D7 is inherently a bad idea because it takes ever more unique, thus rare ...thus, less likely parametrics to actually get that to happen so early in the year.  etc...etc.. 

 

anyway, seeing as MOS is 70 on Sunday and there's some debate whether the ridge is topping/eroding too fast (not a-typical either) the correction should edge above 70 those two days - or at least, you wouldn't sound nuts. 

[OceanStWx]

Maine sucks until... pretty much mid August....  heh, it seems - 

 

spring robs people of nice sensible weather due to NE's unique butt porking topographic geography meets with the oceanic heat sink at the terminus of the Labrador Current anyway...(or should it be 'tip of the labrador dildo') the two working together seems at times to violate physics just to keep said sensible weather miserable (  ) 

 

but the frequency of that theft obviously favors up your way - by the time one's at or N of PWM, there's three seasons. autumn, winter, and oscillatory failing summer

 

Yes, every spring pattern discussion always comes with the Gulf of Maine caveat.

 

Take RKD, north wind is off the water, east wind is off the water, south wind is off the water. Not a lot of margin for error.

[New England Storm]

interesting ...that evolution of language there.

 

i'd even take it further and define it's use (as it is used nowadays) as just abusive over-application whenever an opinion is just sour grapes.  

 

meow, wah wah wah, it didn't snow at 33.3 F "torch" 

 

but yeah, agree Will and Brian - if we're going to use the term torch, I wonder if it couldn't kill us to say the departure has to be > than 2 or so SD.  

 

anything below that is either someone's personal gripe or exaggeration in play - either way.  i don't have a problem with hyperbole - it's fun and expressive.  cool.  but when it's over and over and over again,... kind of loses that purpose, too.

I also started reading Eastern in that winter, at the time a Torch was a warm winter day 55-60.  Overtime "Torch" became a word that lost some of its meaning.  70 in April? Torch  90 in July Torch so on and so forth 

[CoastalWx]

I was in Bar Harbor last year in June and absolutely loved it. Days near 70, cool nights, and lots of lobster rolls.

[Damage In Tolland]

I was in Bar Harbor last year in June and absolutely loved it. Days near 70, cool nights, and lots of lobster rolls.

Wxwise that is awful in summer. Jackets all times of day in June? No thanks

[Ginx snewx]

Wxwise that is awful in summer. Jackets all times of day in June? No thanks

epic back door man Mon?

[Damage In Tolland]

Yup. Looks awful. Temps dropping into the 30's in BOS with mist for the marathon while we go from 72 to 42 with screen doors slamming shut from gusts

[Ginx snewx]

Yup. Looks awful. Temps dropping into the 30's in BOS with mist for the marathon while we go from 72 to 42 with screen doors slamming shut from gusts

Sunday looks great, only 70s day but that's ok

[Typhoon Tip]

epic back door man Mon?

 

it's probably one of those double-barrel deals ... the 'front' actually comes through as a N-door boundary, but there is a lag for about an hour and a half. then GOM dense air rolls SW with a secondary pulse/push of more ENE chill shock bite to the air.

 

that's Kevin's slammin' screen door with the sound of wind-chimes, as the sun abruptly disappears behind misting thick slate strata.  

 

oh ...christ make not - thankfully, we have 5 to 6 days to engineer a miracle no show-

[Typhoon Tip]

not that anyone would wish this upon anyone ... but if things break right that could be a top tier BD whiplash event early next week... 

 

could see a 78 F at BED (as we typically will crush MOS in full sun under +10 C at 850 MB at this time of year)  go to 40 in 25 min flat type of NE laceration event. 

 

#1  March 98:  91 to 38 in 24 hours; 84 to 42 in 30 minutes;  Merrimack Valley region

 

#2  Circa late April 2003: 93 to 52 est 1 hr, Comm Ave near the BU bridge.

[Damage In Tolland]

not that anyone would wish this upon anyone ... but if things break right that could be a top tier BD whiplash event early next week... 

 

could see a 78 F at BED (as we typically will crush MOS in full sun under +10 C at 850 MB at this time of year)  go to 40 in 25 min flat type of NE laceration event. 

 

#1  March 98:  91 to 38 in 24 hours; 84 to 42 in 30 minutes;  Merrimack Valley region

 

#2  Circa late April 2003: 93 to 52 est 1 hr, Comm Ave near the BU bridge.

Could you envision screen doors blowing off hinges or glass shatterings?

[OceanStWx]

not that anyone would wish this upon anyone ... but if things break right that could be a top tier BD whiplash event early next week... 

 

could see a 78 F at BED (as we typically will crush MOS in full sun under +10 C at 850 MB at this time of year)  go to 40 in 25 min flat type of NE laceration event. 

 

#1  March 98:  91 to 38 in 24 hours; 84 to 42 in 30 minutes;  Merrimack Valley region

 

#2  Circa late April 2003: 93 to 52 est 1 hr, Comm Ave near the BU bridge.

 

This time of year a boundary strong enough should show up on local radars as a southwest moving fine line.

[Typhoon Tip]

This time of year a boundary strong enough should show up on local radars as a southwest moving fine line.

 

Yep!  was going to add that ...sinuous line wobbling rapidly SW on radar.   

[Ginx snewx]

This time of year a boundary strong enough should show up on local radars as a southwest moving fine line.

last year had a classic one LL was roasting quahog's on the Grill drinking Rumcholatas while I was outside in my shorts on the deck watching the radar getting that line closer and closer in a matter of 20 mins we went from 65 to 42.

[CoastalWx]

Wxwise that is awful in summer. Jackets all times of day in June? No thanks

 

It was fine in the sun. Shorts and t-shirts. Light winds. Epic. 

[Typhoon Tip]

this is actually a kind of famous one that got entangled in an HP supercell in CT... This cell had a 10 mile hail streak with baseballers that gave out free vinyl siding and car window removal services... (no one even asked, either; just showed up and removed - it was awesome) 

 

anyway, you can see the wind shifting on radar as these serpentine lines extending either side of the storm to go along with: