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kystormspotter

March 15/16 Severe Wx

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For a well forecast event, we may have up to 10 mets (and sometimes as much as 12). 1 or 2 radar teams of primary and assistant. A mesoanalyst examining obs and mesoanalysis for environmental potential, also the near storm/storm behavior and writing meso AFDs. A severe weather coordinator (sometimes 2 coordinators for major events) working with the warning teams to make sure update statements are timely and passing on important report info that could be used in updates. An aviation forecaster handling TAFs and heads up calls to the airports. A public forecaster doing any routine products that need to be done. Data desk of 1 or 2 handling LSRs and making sure warnings go out on the weather radio. For bigger events we also try to have a social media desk as well that may be covered by a student volunteer when possible. A HAM radio desk is also staffed with 1-3 HAMs to monitor amateur radio as well as our social media pages for reports.

The shift can end up being a marathon, sometimes 12 hours or more, especially if we don't have a lot of extra staffing available (people off but available to come in). I've been at the office from the early morning to the late evening for some of our biggest events in recent years, such as 11/17/13, 4/9/15 and 6/22/15.

Regarding watches, the SPC internally draws up an area they would like to issue a watch for and then initiates a conference call with affected WFOs to discuss counties in the watch and reasoning. During the coordination, counties may be added or removed from the preliminary drawn up watch. Once collaboration is done, the watch is issued and local extensions/adding of counties are handled by the WFOs. All warnings are handled by the WFOs but mesoscale discussions may be helpful for the mesoanalyst and warning team (s).

 

 

This was very insightful and well laid out, thanks for this.  I have always wondered what it's like during those busy times.  Glad to see the collaboration and coordination.  

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Small pocket of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE just southeast of Galesburg on the 12km 18Z NAM. It's still on board for 60 dews up to I80 in western portion of IL, as is the 4km NAM..
FWIW SimRef on 4km *looks* like a linear cluster north of Peoria by 00Z Wednesday.

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Just for reference for tomorrow, those tornadoes that formed today near Dayton were in a 64/57 environment when they happened.

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4 km is really bullish with northward extent of high MUCAPE tomorrow evening.  I've noticed it tends to be a bit too bullish sometimes but if anything close to this verifies, the hail threat would be pretty pronounced even into the Chicago metro area where surface based destabilization struggles.

 

 

post-14-0-10231700-1457989235_thumb.gif

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NWS likely going to confirm 2 tornados around phillipsburg Ohio. Investigating another possible touchdown near Arcanum Ohio and near Laura Ohio. So possibly 4 tornados within 30-50 miles of each other. And photos of another tornado around St. Mary's Ohio.

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Rocking the simulated sat back and forth between the hours later tomorrow really reveals the tremendous vorticity with this system.  There's no doubt this system would be capable of producing intense tornadoes later tomorrow if we had more instability.  Very dynamic system, just a little short on instability.  The intense lift from that incoming strong vort will hopefully help the somewhat meager instability overachieve a little bit.

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I think my main concern tomorrow is revolving around mixing out of the relatively shallow BL moisture if temperatures get anywhere towards the mid 70s in the afternoon (not so much a concern with the Ohio tornado earlier). Would rapidly raise LCL heights and lower any tornado potential. Areas further north may be of less concern for this.

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NWS likely going to confirm 2 tornados around phillipsburg Ohio. Investigating another possible touchdown near Arcanum Ohio and near Laura Ohio. So possibly 4 tornados within 30-50 miles of each other. And photos of another tornado around St. Mary's Ohio.

There definitely was a tornado by arcanum. The damage that was reported is very close where I saw the tornado.

All this took was some backing of the winds caused by a weak surface low to enlarge the lowest 4km of the hodographs enough to get some tornados. This was quite an interesting event to work with.

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I think my main concern tomorrow is revolving around mixing out of the relatively shallow BL moisture if temperatures get anywhere towards the mid 70s in the afternoon (not so much a concern with the Ohio tornado earlier). Would rapidly raise LCL heights and lower any tornado potential. Areas further north may be of less concern for this.

 

 

Yeah, I don't see it happening in most of the threat area...clouds will be too much I think.  Best bet would be as you get toward I-70.  Given the delicate low level moisture situation, it's one of those times where one needs to root against temps getting to those levels.

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There definitely was a tornado by arcanum. The damage that was reported is very close where I saw the tornado.

All this took was some backing of the winds caused by a weak surface low to enlarge the lowest 4km of the hodographs enough to get some tornados. This was quite an interesting event to work with.

you should've picked me up lol

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Yeah, I don't see it happening in most of the threat area...clouds will be too much I think.  Best bet would be as you get toward I-70.  Given the delicate low level moisture situation, it's one of those times where one needs to root against temps getting to those levels.

 

Problem with that is the cap associated with the EML may be more difficult to overcome (especially ahead of the cold front).

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4km NAM does show temps getting as warm as the mid 70s up to about Springfield IL.  Could definitely see that happening.  My thinking is to play the middle ground north of that location where temps will be cooler, and the moisture should still be relatively decent.  Also juxtaposes with the better SRH.  Unfortunately I really don't think we'll have much popping out ahead of the strongly forced band of convection associated with the front.  Looks like the cold front will be the only show in town.  I'm guessing SPC will keep the tor probs fairly tightly compacted over north-central IL.

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There definitely was a tornado by arcanum. The damage that was reported is very close where I saw the tornado.

All this took was some backing of the winds caused by a weak surface low to enlarge the lowest 4km of the hodographs enough to get some tornados. This was quite an interesting event to work with.

2 wind reports, 2 minutes apart. I have a velocity screenshot from the minute that the first storm report was reported:

 

DULL ROAD DAMAGE. TREES UPROOTED. ROOFS OFF OF STRUCTURES. TIME ESTIMATED. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

 

 

MOBILE HOME HEAVILY DAMAGED. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED.

 

 

post-29453-1457980279_thumb.png

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EF1 just verified by NWS for phillipsburg Ohio.

Just seen the footage of the damage and tornado in Arcanum Ohio. It hasn't been verified yet.

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

558 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR PHILLIPSBURG IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY

OHIO...

LOCATION...PHILLIPSBURG IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY OHIO

DATE...MARCH 14 2016

ESTIMATED TIME...219 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON OH HAS CONFIRMED A

TORNADO NEAR PHILLIPSBURG IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY OHIO ON MARCH

14 2016.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT

WEATHER.GOV/ILN.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES

INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.

EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.

EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.

EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.

EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.

EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

$$

SITES

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DVN seems to think that the afternoon storms will also have some severe potential along with the morning mrgl hail potential west of the MS river.

 

HWO

 

 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY IS BETWEEN
2 AND 8 PM. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
 

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A point of view here. So far this season, it has been the tendency for storm systems across the Lower 48 to out do themselves. Like today with the tornado west of Dayton, OH. Tomorrow I feel has the same potential.

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FWIW the experimental long-range HRRR shows dews AOA 60 already at noon as far north as central IL. 24hr RAP (lol) does as well.

HRRRX

qz4z81.jpg

That is very NAM like.

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This might be incorrect but I recall hearing from somewhere that the HRRR is more or less an extension of the NAM. 

 

The HRRR is derived from the RAP.

 

Should also note that it busted badly with moisture yesterday as well. With the moisture currently present over areas further south, I have a really hard time believing we are going to see much more than spotty 60-61 readings (if that) with most in the mid-upper 50s unless there is some serious pooling near the warm front.

 

If I bust low, I bust low.

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DULL ROAD DAMAGE. TREES UPROOTED. ROOFS OFF OF STRUCTURES. TIME ESTIMATED. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

 

I live only 2 miles from that damage site.   JasonOH, and others, thank you for that information. I was stuck at work.

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Yeah if you check mesoanalysis right now closer to the Gulf Coast, the 0 hr prog is way off the actual values in terms of dewpoints right now.

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0z NAM is a good bit slower.

Puts it in less favorable chase terrain, but still worthy.

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