Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Yeah the Euro is slow enough to substantially reduce the threat here vs the 12km NAM which is beyond impressive. As you mentioned earlier, Euro hasn't had good run to run continuity with this setup. It's getting into a range where you'd want to put more trust in its solution, but hard to tell in this case given poor run to run continuity. At the same time, it's also still far enough out to have some doubt in the NAM output. Pretty tough to have any confidence on timing given the spread. Looks like there may be better upper air sampling for the 00z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Pretty tough to have any confidence on timing given the spread. Looks like there may be better upper air sampling for the 00z runs?Yep very low confidence fairly close in to the potential event. It appears some of the energy will move ashore in time for 00z runs and then even better sampling appears likely for 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 This setup reminds me of the April 9th setup from last year. You had the SE flow off of Lake Michigan and a warm humid air mass sector that stretched into extreme southern WI. We looking at discrete supercell potential or damaging straight line winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 This setup reminds me of the April 9th setup from last year. You had the SE flow off of Lake Michigan and a warm humid air mass sector that stretched into extreme southern WI. We looking at discrete supercell potential or damaging straight line winds? From the way people have been talking, supercells that later congeal into a line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 We looking at discrete supercell potential or damaging straight line winds? The potential is definitely there for some sups, especially if something like the 12z NAM were to come to fruition. The Euro would be on the other end of the spectrum and wouldn't amount to all that much over this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 This setup reminds me of the April 9th setup from last year. You had the SE flow off of Lake Michigan and a warm humid air mass sector that stretched into extreme southern WI. We looking at discrete supercell potential or damaging straight line winds? Overall, I think there's good supercell potential, and you can make an argument that congealing into a line would not occur very quickly. As posted last night, deep layer shear vectors with respect to the cold front look favorable. As long as instability is good and moisture doesn't come in well below guidance, there should be pretty good supercell/tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 This setup reminds me of the April 9th setup from last year. You had the SE flow off of Lake Michigan and a warm humid air mass sector that stretched into extreme southern WI. Funny you mentioned that since I was thinking the same thing about the look of some of the soundings off the 12z NAM. Similar amounts of instability/shear present (dewpoints won't be as high as that event, but mid level lapse rates here may have the advantage). I also remember that was another event where the Euro really bombed the convective forecast, primarily since it was putting out way too much early convection in the presence of an EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 18z NAM looks like it might be coming in a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 A little OT but for Wednesday, was looking at the 12z NAM and it's showing incredible mixing heights in the afternoon...like into the 450 mb range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 18z NAM looks like it might be coming in a little slower. Yeah this one is more of a Central IL event (or just IL in general). Really impressive soundings showing up by 00z when the low level wind fields increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 18z NAM is slower but also lingers instability later into the night as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Euro would be concerning for the DVN area to be sure. I have a tendency to favor a slower evolution with these rapidly strengthening systems, so I'm leaning towards a slower solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Yeah it's slower, which brings Rochelle more into play...sounding for RPJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Yeah it's slower, which brings Rochelle more into play...sounding for RPJ.. 18z NAM rochelle1.png That's on the high end of any forecast soundings you'll see in northern IL. Incredible 0-1 km SRH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 The NAM is no doubt a chase-able setup, as well as the ECMWF to a slightly less degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 NAM 4 km on the other hand bullseyes the Kankakee/Champaign corridor with a string of pearls ahead of the boundary. I am really doubting we see 64 degree Tds though like it is showing unless we see some serious pooling along/ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 18Z NAM is looking like it's good for Tornadoes in Illinois and part's of Indiana and for Large Hail/Damaging Wind elsewhere. Also note, the run of the 18Z NAM on College of DuPage is broken, the sounding shows a 7.4 supercell composite at hour 60 around Saint Joeseph and the map shows nothing at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Also note, the run of the 18Z NAM on College of DuPage is broken, the sounding shows a 7.4 supercell composite at hour 60 around Saint Joeseph and the map shows nothing at the same time No it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 18z 4km NAM simulated reflectivity and 1-hr max updraft helicity valid at 00z Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 18z nam 4km is concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 No it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 *sounding* There is no way storms in that environment would be surface based. Look at the inversion off the surface. Also the wind profile in the lowest 3 km is complete mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Looks like 41.89, -84.76 comes out to the Hillsdale area. How many times have you been told to be less imby oriented? Or the least you could do is specify where you were talking about in your original post. Edit: I see you fixed that part at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Looks like 41.89, -84.76 comes out to the Hillsdale area. How many times have you been told to be less imby oriented? Or the least you could do is specify where you were talking about in your original post. Are you surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Are you surprised I told you I clicked by the large pocket of higher Supercell composites near Saint Joseph county MI. Jesus christ do you people have nothing better to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 CAPE getting up there. 2500+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I told you I clicked by the large pocket of higher Supercell composites near Saint Joseph county MI. Jesus christ do you people have nothing better to do? First of all there's a county named St. Joseph in N IN (where the COD plots are registering values) and you didn't specify. Secondly, you have been told so many times to cut the IMBY stuff out and you continue to do it. Also, I haven't seen any desire from you to try to improve your model analysis since you started posting here. Sorry if this comes off as harsh, but it is getting frustrating at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Sort of cool to see the precip streaks on the 4 km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Why is he still even able to post? It's getting beyond old and he's been called out/corrected many many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 18z GFS coming in a little slower, but probably still going to be much faster than the NAM and ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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