kevinbente

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Everything posted by kevinbente

  1. Latest HRRR runs are suggesting a rather concerning parameter space, and associated reflectivity field, for the MDT risk area by late morning tomorrow. This is off the 0z HRRR run.
  2. Trying to chase this upcoming trough. Hopefully Monday follows the GFS's way. It looks very good.
  3. Right. Enough of a VBV signature to really start looking at it. This is for the KS/OK border at 0z. But the VBV goes away at 3z. Weird stuff.
  4. While it is the 4km NAM, that model along with the less, but still notable 12km NAM are both showing a decent chance of severe weather and potentially a tornado threat in Alabama and surrounding areas on Thursday, March 24th. It seems right now, if this setup wants to be more significant, the surface low should want to slow down a bit so surface winds would be more backed in the area. Also, CAPE values generally range from around 1000 J/kg on the 12km NAM/GFS to 1500-2000 on the 4km NAM. Regardless of this, the 4km NAM shows discrete supercells in central Alabama Thursday afternoon.
  5. Welp. That shifted south and west. Lol
  6. Yeah the 18z NAM has a pretty nice environment for storms at 3z. Yay for nighttime tors.
  7. I mean... Sunday on the NAM. Still a ways out though.
  8. Like Quincy said, it seems that the rear end of next week seems to hold some good potential for some sig severe wx across the north central plains. still shows 40-60 knots at H5 along with pretty significant CAPE values. Euro is a little less excited as the GFS but of course it's still long range on both models. Definitely an encouraging sign for chasers such as myself.
  9. Just taking a brief glimpse at the models, it seems both the GFS and the EURO have a pretty significant trough entering the west CONUS around the 15-16th of June. Such an anomalous trough would be impressive for the time of year, and would obviously increase the chances of severe wx over the central/high plains, so we'll see if it continues in forthcoming runs!
  10. Initiation seems to be underway west of Lubbock, along the dryline.
  11. Just my gut feeling but setups like this seem to always have something in central KS... profiles certainly support something significant there on both GFS/NAM as well. Just my gut feeling. I could be wrong though. Time shall tell!
  12. Agreeing with Andy here... HP mode will lessen the long track tornado threat for now...
  13. 0z NAM continues to show Sunday being a big deal. Check out this sounding from Southeast Iowa at 0z
  14. Anyone have any new thoughts on Friday's setup? I see the 0z NAM does not get more than 1750 CAPE in east OK, also not convecting. I personally just don't believe this solution so much, given the amount of dynamics associated with this storm. It almost wants to point to Wichita, KS being the spot, with higher CAPE values located there and seems to initiate IIRC.
  15. 12z nam has Sigtors in the 6-8 range, but it's the NAM in fantasy land. Still interesting.
  16. Certainly seeing 60+ knots at H5 over 3000 cape is a big deal. Lets see if low levels trend in the right (for chasers) direction. Usually for a 996 low you usually see a mass response. Me thinks low levels are being underplayed a bit. Could just be the optimistic bias I have lol.
  17. well, if stuff looks interesting after my atmospheric instrumentation class i could drive north to FLL to see if any mischief could arise.
  18. Yes have been looking at this today. Euro model seems to have DL a bit too far west IMO but those specifics will be worked out in the near future. Still a few days out so things can still change, but that run looked pretty hefty. 12z runs will be interesting.
  19. Models seem to upping tomorrow's potential again. Seems to be a trend. Hope it stays this time.
  20. I agree - Wednesday seems to have the bigger potential over Thursday. Any ideas why analogues are so aggressive for Thursday when instability seems to clearly be lacking, at least on the GFS? Granted, it is only model, but still.
  21. I know it doesn't mean much, and I know this may not be the right thread for this post, but long range GFS ensembles are suggesting a more progressive pattern (finally) over the next 2 weeks. Shifting anomalous ridging to the eastern part of the US. Anomalous troughing over the rockies, spreading SW flow over the plains. Something to watch considering it's March now. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015030218&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=182 And I'll go May 16th for my first high risk. 1050 tornadoes.