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About kevinbente

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  1. kevinbente

    April 1-3 Severe Threat

    Latest HRRR runs are suggesting a rather concerning parameter space, and associated reflectivity field, for the MDT risk area by late morning tomorrow. This is off the 0z HRRR run.
  2. Trying to chase this upcoming trough. Hopefully Monday follows the GFS's way. It looks very good.
  3. kevinbente

    April 24-30th Severe Potential

    Right. Enough of a VBV signature to really start looking at it. This is for the KS/OK border at 0z. But the VBV goes away at 3z. Weird stuff.
  4. While it is the 4km NAM, that model along with the less, but still notable 12km NAM are both showing a decent chance of severe weather and potentially a tornado threat in Alabama and surrounding areas on Thursday, March 24th. It seems right now, if this setup wants to be more significant, the surface low should want to slow down a bit so surface winds would be more backed in the area. Also, CAPE values generally range from around 1000 J/kg on the 12km NAM/GFS to 1500-2000 on the 4km NAM. Regardless of this, the 4km NAM shows discrete supercells in central Alabama Thursday afternoon.
  5. kevinbente

    March 15/16 Severe Wx

    Welp. That shifted south and west. Lol
  6. Quite the sounding in central AR on Sunday evening.
  7. Sorry I'm late. 1188 tornadoes. First High Risk will be April 20th.
  8. kevinbente

    Nov. 16th-17th Severe Event

    Yeah the 18z NAM has a pretty nice environment for storms at 3z. Yay for nighttime tors.
  9. kevinbente

    November 11th-12th storm system

    Yeah, 4km NAM is cellular mode at 21z.
  10. kevinbente

    June 18th-21st Severe Events

    I mean... Sunday on the NAM. Still a ways out though.
  11. Like Quincy said, it seems that the rear end of next week seems to hold some good potential for some sig severe wx across the north central plains. still shows 40-60 knots at H5 along with pretty significant CAPE values. Euro is a little less excited as the GFS but of course it's still long range on both models. Definitely an encouraging sign for chasers such as myself.
  12. Just taking a brief glimpse at the models, it seems both the GFS and the EURO have a pretty significant trough entering the west CONUS around the 15-16th of June. Such an anomalous trough would be impressive for the time of year, and would obviously increase the chances of severe wx over the central/high plains, so we'll see if it continues in forthcoming runs!
  13. kevinbente

    May 15th-16th Severe Events

    Initiation seems to be underway west of Lubbock, along the dryline.
  14. kevinbente

    May 15th-16th Severe Events

    Just my gut feeling but setups like this seem to always have something in central KS... profiles certainly support something significant there on both GFS/NAM as well. Just my gut feeling. I could be wrong though. Time shall tell!
  15. kevinbente

    May 7th-10th Severe Outbreaks

    Agreeing with Andy here... HP mode will lessen the long track tornado threat for now...