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March 15/16 Severe Wx


kystormspotter

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So what is preventing this from being a big big time event? Directional shear is amazing from SFC-500mb, instability is nothing to laugh at being 1000-2000J/KG, and both 0-1K and 0-3K helicities are impressive. Is timing the main issue or? Haven't been paying a ton of attention to this, but everything looks pretty great to me.

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So what is preventing this from being a big big time event? Directional shear is amazing from SFC-500mb, instability is nothing to laugh at being 1000-2000J/KG, and both 0-1K and 0-3K helicities are impressive. Is timing the main issue or? Haven't been paying a ton of attention to this, but everything looks pretty great to me.

 

 

I'd say it's moisture quality...it should be good enough for some tors but a little lacking for a big tornado outbreak.  Then you have the narrowing warm sector with time and questionable convective coverage where instability is good enough later tonight, which keeps the better tornado threat relatively confined.

 

As other people have been mentioning though, there's a pretty consistent model signal for a long track cell or two...and sometimes one or two cells can make an outbreak, so we'll see.

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So what is preventing this from being a big big time event? Directional shear is amazing from SFC-500mb, instability is nothing to laugh at being 1000-2000J/KG, and both 0-1K and 0-3K helicities are impressive. Is timing the main issue or? Haven't been paying a ton of attention to this, but everything looks pretty great to me.

In my opinion, it's probably the moisture quality. I've seen situations with dewps in the mid 50's, but for a big outbreak the overall availability doesn't seem to be too supportive.

I would not be surprised to see one of two storms go "classic supercell" and drop a strong, photogenic tornado or two.

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So what is preventing this from being a big big time event? Directional shear is amazing from SFC-500mb, instability is nothing to laugh at being 1000-2000J/KG, and both 0-1K and 0-3K helicities are impressive. Is timing the main issue or? Haven't been paying a ton of attention to this, but everything looks pretty great to me.

 

Surface dewpoint depressions are somewhat high and I actually thought 1km SRH was about average or even below average at least on the west side of the risk area. But, like you said pretty good instability and deep layer shear though. And with lower wet buib zero heights I was thinking hail would be the primary threat today. I still think there are pretty high odds for at least 1 or 2 tornadoes (if not more).

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Appears the warm front and morning outflow boundary remain separate entities, bullish for tornadoes. WF is up in northern IL. Elevated right mover on the WF is a hint of what to expect farther south on the OFB later. Central Illinois cell remains robust on the HRRR because it is on the intersection of the pre-frontal trough and outflow boundary. Said cell is forecast to turn hard right. Not trusting the model blindly, it lines up with the meteorology fundamentals. I would absolutely target the central Illinois cell.

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