codfishsnowman Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Heh, I'm not as impressed ... in so far as it will be cold across Canada and eastern Canada, and one would in the least need cold air for wintry events, ...sure... But I don't like the way the details of the pattern are meshing with the teleconnectors. The NAO is positive and tho it is slipping some way out there in 'suspect to even happen' time frames. The PNA is neutral, which technically should connote more 'N/S' than anything. What does favor (somewhat) is a nice EPO ridge and an index that runs to -2 SD for some week's worth of time. The big key (and problem) here - beyond the fact that the PNA isn't really that suggestive to begin with - is that the PNAP flavor is west based. It's been consistent for weeks ...hell, months really. And actually here, the ridge in the west (a plausible extension of the EPO bulge...) is actually W of the west coast at our latitudes. This would imply two possible transit modes for S/W ejected out of the west: one ... damping as they attempt to pass into the eastern ridge (which is there; not sure why folks haven't acknowledged that more) two ... cutter systems. Obviously the usual caveat applies, as it does/should at all times .. in that no pattern, even by interpretation, is incorrigible. Anomalies relative to anomalies transpire all the time. It's call weather - ha! But what I mean by that is, the pattern in place could be an anomaly in its self, within which a snow event may or may not be favored, but either extreme happens anyway - the kind of occurrence is an 'anomaly within an anomaly' Those are hard to find/rarer, ...much less ever modeled with any discerned lead - nope. It's really a matter of balancing probabilities in one's mind. I don't see a western ridge that is so far west being very useful to those living east of 90 W for snow. The cold in Canada associated with the EPO dump ... could off-set and offer a overrunning ...or your SWFE things, sure. But at that point, one would be picking nits ... no J.Q. Public on the street corner gives a crazed rat in a tin schit house how it is snowing, if/when it is... so - And, by the time anyone finishes reading this post it will be mid April anyway and probably a moot point. I'll just wrap this up short of a headache by saying that heights over the Inter mountain region in the means are two low in this sort of teleconnector spread (and for the most part the operational runs are settling nicely into agreement for the time being) for more traditional snow threats. As far as overrunning ...won't know how those play out until any such event is in nearer terms to be too optimistic. I will say this ... it's not a "warm" pattern with repetitive bleeds of cold near-by and ample reasons to N-door or back door hell i read the entire post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 i read the entire post you're a brave soul ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 She's coming What temperature are you expecting at HFD at 18z on Wednesday and Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 What temperature are you expecting at HFD at 18z on Wednesday and Thursday? I also thought this was BDL season? Seems like he's back to ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 admittedly ... the following statement is based a bit on decades of culminating New England spring-time bendover violations... but - no guys: you put a boundary there, with high up there...and a low going there, and that boundary WILL BE DOWN IN DCA next subject Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 What temperature are you expecting at HFD at 18z on Wednesday and Thursday?64 at 2:00 pm Wed and 40 2:00 pm Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 What temperature are you expecting at HFD at 18z on Wednesday and Thursday? close to 30 inches in west hartford for season snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 64 at 2:00 pm Wed and 40 2:00 pm Thurs I'll go 61 and 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Southie hell season is about to start. Say goodbye to the son for the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Man, that's still a crazy looking early April pattern on EC ensembles. I'd be surprised if there wasn't a threat or two if that panned out. Looks torchy around April Fools day and then the LW trough sets up further east with big time cold available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 JB already saying he thinks there will be a tremendous storm in the east around very beginning of April, but says he thinks it will cut west of Apps, and then bring down vicious cold after it passes. Says the ridge out west will be to far west for a storm to be along the coast. But he says there's always a chance it could be along the coast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 JB already saying he thinks there will be a tremendous storm in the east around very beginning of April, but says he thinks it will cut west of Apps, and then bring down vicious cold after it passes. Says the ridge out west will be to far west for a storm to be along the coast. But he says there's always a chance it could be along the coast lol. I don't read or listen to him but sounds like a classic case of the MET in him knows it'll cut, but he also knows his audience and in order to keep them engaged he's gotta at least give the east coast nor'easter a mention. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Looks as though March will go down as another solidly above normal month for departures with only 8 days left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Looks as though March will go down as another solidly above normal month for departures with only 8 days left. MonthTDeptNRCC.png Man this winter was an all out torch when you go Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar. Probably makes 2011-2012 look like a frigid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Man this winter was an all out torch when you go Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar. Probably makes 2011-2012 look like a frigid winter. Not speaking for NNE ... but March in 2012 was +10 down here and historic. i doubt we beat that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Not speaking for NNE ... but March in 2012 was +10 down here and historic. i doubt we beat that we're close to that down here for March, +7 give or take. +10 is a longshot, but we could see +9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 we're close to that down here for March, +7 give or take. +10 is a longshot, but we could see +9 without looking .. (so tfwiw) i suspect there was a gradient through the area. we did have that one insane hot day, perhaps that's throwing the average. hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Not speaking for NNE ... but March in 2012 was +10 down here and historic. i doubt we beat thatYes but combine Dec (record breaking torch of a month), Jan, Feb, and March. I think this winter might be warmer on the whole.This December had a larger departure I think than March 2012...this year we were like +13 or 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Yes but combine Dec (record breaking torch of a month), Jan, Feb, and March. I think this winter might be warmer on the whole. This December had a larger departure I think than March 2012...this year we were like +13 or 14. I think ORH had a +10 for Dec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Actually, ORH was +12.0F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Actually, ORH was +12.0F Yeah December was one of the more impressive monthly departures you'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Yeah December was one of the more impressive monthly departures you'll see. I still find it fascinating that within 1 year we had (for some) the coldest winter on record and the warmest on record Has something close to that ever been done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I still find it fascinating that within 1 year we had (for some) the coldest winter on record and the warmest on record Has something close to that ever been done? Not that I know of. I think we'll do it up here. I think it's cool that in the same calendar year, February was widespread the coldest February ever in like 100+ year data sets, while December was then the warmest ever for pretty much all. We went from like -14 departures to +14 departures at the mountain for those two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 2011-2012 was warmer at ORH...this year January was like +3 and Feb +2 or something...2012 was putting up like +6s those months. So even with the insane December, we won't match 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 2011-2012 was warmer at ORH...this year January was like +3 and Feb +2 or something...2012 was putting up like +6s those months. So even with the insane December, we won't match 2011-2012. Also doubled the snow fall totals from that year down here. I think some places in the south shore have tripled them. That year remains King ratter temp wise and snow wise for E NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 2011-2012 was warmer at ORH...this year January was like +3 and Feb +2 or something...2012 was putting up like +6s those months. So even with the insane December, we won't match 2011-2012. Yeah... 2011-2012 was +6.75 for the 4 months of Dec-March So far, ORH is at +5.85 or so close though March 2012 was +9.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Snow in 2011-2012 has me beat by a lot. 46" vs 28" Of course, more than half of the 2011-2012 total came in 2 October events...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Snow in 2011-2012 has me beat by a lot. 46" vs 28" Of course, more than half of the 2011-2012 total came in 2 October events...lol Yeah it was much worse east of there...basically for anyone who didn't see much snow from the October bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 As others have noted, the difference between this winter and the last is remarkable. I think we've had about 35" this season versus at least 110" last year. I suppose it could be worse like 2011-12 where we struggled to get about 20 inches on the year but to think that a year ago we still had a few feet of snow that had yet to melt is just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Yeah it was much worse east of there...basically for anyone who didn't see much snow from the October bomb. This winter was better than 2012 IMHO even back here...yes, the Octo bomb was sick and I'll never forget it but the rest of the winter was deplorable. Basically, winter ended on Halloween that year and there was very little to look forward to all winter on the models...it always looked like garbage except for a fleeting moment in late January when February had a bit of promise...but that quickly faded. We at least had threats to track this winter once we got to early/mid January, even if many of them disappointed. We had more snow cover days this winter and obviously more snow in the actual met winter than that year. This year also had the notable cold shot. Of course, "Grading" winters is subjective, but that's how I would stack up those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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