512high Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 All models show a potential pattern for something late season. There isn't anything verbatim, but with a trough setting up over the MIdwest and East..I would keep an eye out during early April. Clearly it's difficult to get the ingredients to line up for snow...but that is some very cold air moving into the nrn tier of the US. I say lets do one more! Scott you and others , good call on this one, good job for my neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I would be fine with another one like this. Snow in the morning...melted by afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Euro weeklies show a strong signal for April to start out cold and potentially wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 We actually could torch ahead of the cold front later next week. But boy, after that...all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 We actually could torch ahead of the cold front later next week. But boy, after that...all bets are off. Another day near 80 not out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 We actually could torch ahead of the cold front later next week. But boy, after that...all bets are off. Next week looks nice ahead of the next cold shot. And yes the start of April looks like crap. Where was this in Febuary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Certainly not springlike the last few days of that ecens run last night. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Heh, I'm not as impressed ... in so far as it will be cold across Canada and eastern Canada, and one would in the least need cold air for wintry events, ...sure... But I don't like the way the details of the pattern are meshing with the teleconnectors. The NAO is positive and tho it is slipping some way out there in 'suspect to even happen' time frames. The PNA is neutral, which technically should connote more 'N/S' than anything. What does favor (somewhat) is a nice EPO ridge and an index that runs to -2 SD for some week's worth of time. The big key (and problem) here - beyond the fact that the PNA isn't really that suggestive to begin with - is that the PNAP flavor is west based. It's been consistent for weeks ...hell, months really. And actually here, the ridge in the west (a plausible extension of the EPO bulge...) is actually W of the west coast at our latitudes. This would imply two possible transit modes for S/W ejected out of the west: one ... damping as they attempt to pass into the eastern ridge (which is there; not sure why folks haven't acknowledged that more) two ... cutter systems. Obviously the usual caveat applies, as it does/should at all times .. in that no pattern, even by interpretation, is incorrigible. Anomalies relative to anomalies transpire all the time. It's call weather - ha! But what I mean by that is, the pattern in place could be an anomaly in its self, within which a snow event may or may not be favored, but either extreme happens anyway - the kind of occurrence is an 'anomaly within an anomaly' Those are hard to find/rarer, ...much less ever modeled with any discerned lead - nope. It's really a matter of balancing probabilities in one's mind. I don't see a western ridge that is so far west being very useful to those living east of 90 W for snow. The cold in Canada associated with the EPO dump ... could off-set and offer a overrunning ...or your SWFE things, sure. But at that point, one would be picking nits ... no J.Q. Public on the street corner gives a crazed rat in a tin schit house how it is snowing, if/when it is... so - And, by the time anyone finishes reading this post it will be mid April anyway and probably a moot point. I'll just wrap this up short of a headache by saying that heights over the Inter mountain region in the means are two low in this sort of teleconnector spread (and for the most part the operational runs are settling nicely into agreement for the time being) for more traditional snow threats. As far as overrunning ...won't know how those play out until any such event is in nearer terms to be too optimistic. I will say this ... it's not a "warm" pattern with repetitive bleeds of cold near-by and ample reasons to N-door or back door hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 That's a real nice -EPO block that rolls into the PNA domain, along with ridging into Greenland. That's what impressed me. You're talking 850 temps colder than 8C BN in srn Canada at the end of an ensemble mean. I thought that was impressive. As we all know, it takes a lot more work to get something in early April...but shoot...that would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 That's a real nice -EPO block that rolls into the PNA domain, along with ridging into Greenland. That's what impressed me. You're talking 850 temps colder than 8C BN in srn Canada at the end of an ensemble mean. I thought that was impressive. As we all know, it takes a lot more work to get something in early April...but shoot...that would work. keep in mind ... I'm not referring to any other derivatives than those provided by the GEFs Folks may have perfectly viable options to view ...EPS and who knows what. Fwiw - I've come to find that GEFs does just fine though for teleconnector mode ... provided one keeps up with trend. Having said that, the NAO doesn't appear to want to move very negative at either agency (CPC/CDC) ...despite any ridge heading toward Greenland. The index does tend to tail off toward neutral/negative way out there in time - but the NAO is probably the most stochastic index there is and beyond D9 or 10 ...heh I agree on the EPO, but again, cutters are a statistically agreeable event for -EPOs ...and I would argue that is particularly so when the mid latitude pattern over N/A is a -PNAP tendency. fun stuff... I also agree that it's a cold look - jesus, wholeheartedly. You know it's funny ... I keep reading these NASA press releases about GW and how that next month is the warmest ever relative to season ...along this seemingly meteoritic rise in we're all doomed... and aye yai yai... that may be true, but it seems we here in N/A are providing the ONLY counter-balancing heat sink over what ...the entire planet? This has been going on for months to years now, and since the last big heat wave in the Nations heartland back in 2012 (that we never really got any part of here in New England - even the Derechos went S of us!) ... we seem to be living in a bubble of cool off-set that is ironically perfectly wrong; it is wrong because this nation is one of the primary polluters of green-house gassing (so it is espoused), so why not blind its citizens from seeing the implications coming. wah wah waaaah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 That's an impressive pattern to start April, wow. Basically a massive -EPO with the NAO trying to go negative. Would be awesome to see that hold and grab an April '82. That may have been the year we received an 18" storm here in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Certainly not springlike the last few days of that ecens run last night. Damn. No joke EPO there on the last half dozen EC runs. They all have drilled it down to -6 SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 That may have been the year we received an 18" storm here in April. The old LEW coop had 26.3" of snow that month, 25.5" of it fell on the 6th/7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 The old LEW coop had 26.3" of snow that month, 25.5" of it fell on the 6th/7th. Is there a link to that data or is it archived? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Man what a torch next week . Couple days of 70's in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Is there a link to that data or is it archived? It's on xmACIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Man what a torch next week . Couple days of 70's in there Kevin with his mandatory incendiary inventions - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Here comes hell on Thursday AWT.. And continuing to trend colder. It'll end up 39 down to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 The old LEW coop had 26.3" of snow that month, 25.5" of it fell on the 6th/7th. April 1982 was very impressive in the Midwest too. Chicago (ORD) received 10" of snow on April 5-6, followed by a low temp of 7F on April 7. That min temp sticks out like a sore thumb in the record books: Record lows - ORD 4/5: 18 in 1995 4/6: 15 in 1982 4/7: 7 in 1982 4/8: 20 in 1972 4/9: 20 in 1989 Hopefully we can all replicate something close to that in the 8-15 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Here comes hell on Thursday AWT.. And continuing to trend colder. It'll end up 39 down to NYC Without fail ITH always had a few days like this every spring. Will and I checking in back home and hear about misery mist or well below normal temps, meanwhile it's full on Napril on Libe Slope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Here comes hell on Thursday AWT.. And continuing to trend colder. It'll end up 39 down to NYC 12z run has low 50s. 9z SREFs have quite a bit of spread... I'd say it's not a certainty we deal with misery mist and 30s in CT lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 12z run has low 50s. 9z SREFs have quite a bit of spread... I'd say it's not a certainty we deal with misery mist and 30s in CT lol EPS has significant spread for BDL, like anywhere from 40 to 65 for a high. Start the range high and we can always go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 GFS looks much colder for Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Man what a torch next week . Couple days of 70's in there it doesn't look "torchy". 70F as we get into April isn't that big of a deal either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 it doesn't look "torchy". 70F as we get into April isn't that big of a deal either. Probably meant dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Friday is a real question. May torch near and south of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Friday is a real question. May torch near and south of pike. CEF right on the line ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Friday is a real question. May torch near and south of pike. 4km NAM has a nice little backdoor for BOS tomorrow night. 60ish back into the 40s with winds from off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 4km NAM has a nice little backdoor for BOS tomorrow night. 60ish back into the 40s with winds from off the water. Yep. Party is over by mid-late aftn I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 GFS looks much colder for Thurs. She's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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