CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I'm not sure what you guys are done by but my call from last week was that Wed- Fri would be 50's and 60's and Scooter started talking about cold NE flow. So far it seems on track if Your're not on the North Atlantic coast You referenced Noyes' 50s-60s all week which is another terrible call by him. A quick search for Damage In Tolland posts from last week also reveals your assumption that models have 70s-80 at the end of this week, and also your 65-70 call for this weekend. My posts said Wed or Thurs may be milder in the CT valley if there is no rain, but otherwise 50s-60s all week simply will not work out in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 it's too early to launch an April pattern thread (perhaps...), I'm still liking the last week of this month and into the first week of April for a deeper seasonal flip/turn around toward milder weather. the straight up read off the GEFs-derived indexes connotes neutralizing heights over western N/A during that time frame. i'm also noticing subtle and not so subtle tendencies in the extended operational depictions to raise heights along the EC out there in time, with some members of ensemble clusters even opting for more of an eastern conus ridge/warm departure look. so there's some head nodding between ensemble means and the typically more accurate operational members. ... may lend some confidence there... can't forget it's spring, either, ...and we've seen whole-scale signals (meaning many mass-fields involved) fail - barring that ... thinking our next bona fide above normal and green-up initiator may be lurking in the < than 15 D extended. whatever happens from this coastal ... that may be it. of course, that doesn't prevent an April 15 cut-off dice roller, no - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Thanks, would this indicate troughiness in the intermountain west and west coast during this period under a neutral or negative PNA. Note necessarily ... it would be more likely to mean that if the PNA was more negative than what the GEFs derivatives are actually giving at this time. The PNA domain space is very large, encompassing much of the E Pacific and North American region of the hemisphere... a neutral PNA could still mean building some western heights; and in fact, even -PNA's can have ridging rolling through the Rockies at times. It's a matter of probability of that happening being lower in a -PNA and higher in a +PNA, and vice versa. Having said there, the PNA is scheduled in the GEFs mean to lose the positive and the NAO is forecast to also rise markedly post the 25th of the month. That's teaming up different statistical packages toward raising eastern heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 i knew the euro was going to do this...before even looking at the 12z run today, i knew it was going to plow deep warm sector air up into new england by the end of the same week that starts off with a deep winter coastal storm. 80 a week from Saturday on that run - heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 i knew the euro was going to do this...before even looking at the 12z run today, i knew it was going to plow deep warm sector air up into new england by the end of the same week that starts off with a deep winter coastal storm. 80 a week from Saturday on that run - heh Sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Napril fail on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Is this hail or graupel falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Is this hail or graupel falling? Dandruff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Earliest ice out on Lake Winni today in history, beating 03/23/12 Congrats up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Earliest ice out on Lake Winni today in history, beating 03/23/12 Congrats up there Can someone officiate this as not merely a Kevinism - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 EPS is pretty cool through d15. Maybe we can sneak a semi warm day late next week when that system cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Can someone officiate this as not merely a Kevinism - It's legit. Those are long periods of records on those NH lakes ice out, and this year takes the cake. Just add it to the list of new records this winter has broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 EPS is pretty cool through d15. Maybe we can sneak a semi warm day late next week when that system cuts. The EPS sucks, the Euro sucks..Torch is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 EPS is pretty cool through d15. Maybe we can sneak a semi warm day late next week when that system cuts. Yeah they'll be some warmups, but not the pattern you want to start April should you joe a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Is this hail or graupel falling? Hail is my guess. Graupel seems to be a bit more uniform in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Hail is my guess. Graupel seems to be a bit more uniform in size. Had two of those heavy hail/graupel showers yesterday. It seemed softer than hail..The 2nd one around 5:00 covered the ground briefly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Had two of those heavy hail/graupel showers yesterday. It seemed softer than hail..The 2nd one around 5:00 covered the ground briefly Ahh yeah hard to tell from the picture. Hail is often translucent while graupel will just be solid white so that could be graupel actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Ahh yeah hard to tell from the picture. Hail is often translucent while graupel will just be solid white so that could be graupel actually. Yesterday seemed more like a graupel type day to me. I'm not sure we were getting much recycling of hydrometeors in those showers yesterday. That's what made our severe event the day before so interesting, we probably had a little bit of both going on. Even the hailstones I picked up were like halfway between hail and graupel. Half ice, half heavily rimed snow pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Might want to watch mid week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Yesterday seemed more like a graupel type day to me. I'm not sure we were getting much recycling of hydrometeors in those showers yesterday. That's what made our severe event the day before so interesting, we probably had a little bit of both going on. Even the hailstones I picked up were like halfway between hail and graupel. Half ice, half heavily rimed snow pellets. Yeah that picture Dryslot had looked almost like quarter size graupel. Almost a solid white ball...don't see that very often for sure at that size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Might want to watch mid week next week. you damn Mainers better conjure up me at least an inch of snow, see the Euro has 2-4 Wed Didn't want to clutter the other thread with talk of midweek, but quoted Ginxy too. GFS isentropic plots have 50 knots ripping up from 850 to 700. I'll take that nice WAA punch for a quick hitting snowfall. Might be more impactful for far more of our CWA than this Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Didn't want to clutter the other thread with talk of midweek, but quoted Ginxy too. GFS isentropic plots have 50 knots ripping up from 850 to 700. I'll take that nice WAA punch for a quick hitting snowfall. Might be more impactful for far more of our CWA than this Monday storm. Euro does look good for a 1-4" snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday and maybe more on Wednesday night into Thursday? It's got 0.4" QPF here for that 24-36 hour period. As modeled that's one of the larger events of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Didn't want to clutter the other thread with talk of midweek, but quoted Ginxy too. GFS isentropic plots have 50 knots ripping up from 850 to 700. I'll take that nice WAA punch for a quick hitting snowfall. Might be more impactful for far more of our CWA than this Monday storm. how we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 how we pray 00z Euro goes with a nice 6-9" event from here to Sunday River at day 5-6. That's a nice SWFE look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 00z Euro goes with a nice 6-9" event from here to Sunday River at day 5-6. That's a nice SWFE look. That looks like it could drop a little snow even into parts of northern SNE.. Also looks like we won't warm up if the euro ensembles are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Local stations have 70 Thursday and 72 Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Local stations have 70 Thursday and 72 Friday Friday is probably best shot and CT is the best place should it happen. It certainly isn't as warm as it looked a week ago. April will start chilly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Friday is probably best shot and CT is the best place should it happen. It certainly isn't as warm as it looked a week ago. April will start chilly too. Seems like after week 1 Napril really goes to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 00z Euro goes with a nice 6-9" event from here to Sunday River at day 5-6. That's a nice SWFE look. I like the under on max temps Thursday. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Friday is probably best shot and CT is the best place should it happen. It certainly isn't as warm as it looked a week ago. April will start chilly too.Come spring, all late bloomer envy is forgotten. We sun in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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