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lilj4425

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

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I realize that. But people here were hugging the other models as far as the position of the surface low. The Euro at this range has difficulty with things like temps, especially in a CAD setup, but is still better (when consistent) with the synoptic features.

 

Yep,

 

Euro ultimately won out on the 5h trough and surface low placement, big surprise. lol

 

I actually looked at a 120 hr prog from 4 days ago and it's about identical at 5h to what it is showing now.

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Well for what ever it's worth, the 12z GFS did come in a little higher in qpf for northern NC for the first wave (to hour 27). Looks like .25 or greater along the NC Vir boarder. Then the greater than .1 runs through the center of NC northward. Laughable but it is higher than 6z.

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GSP has me with as much as 4-6 of snow an .25 of ice along the escarpment. They also think freezing temps will hang on longest along the escarpment, not good at all. Very scary situation up here. I trust GSP more than anything, them guys know there stuff.

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I think H is going to hug the NC/SC line. It won't reach into Henderson and Transylvania counties. Those are notorious CAD counties, even when areas around them are collapsing.

CbLRYQmUsAELaNx.jpg

 

 

I'm in the "G" section, and yesterday, I was convinced that we would see a substantial winter event. This morning.... just not feeling it as much. Going to be a day of short range model watching and looking at radar trends.

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Also, the HRRR was horrible for Friday's system.  It didn't show hardly anything getting into Wake and Wake saw a good amount of snow activity.

we had a small batch of flurries move through.  it nailed the bulk of the precip that stayed to the s of wake.

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I'd like to officially issue a BCW for our area. A BCW (Bored Children Watch) is issued whenever there is a high likelihood of children staying home from school for no reason, couped up inside because of cold rain, and driving parents batsh8t crazy.

Such a waste of record cold. This winter sucks.

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we had a small batch of flurries move through.  it nailed the bulk of the precip that stayed to the s of wake.

I agree, but when I looked at it, it didn't show the showers that went through wake.  taken verbatim, wake would've not even seen snow flurries/showers.

 

so looking at HRRR now doesn't need to be taken verbatim.

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I think H is going to hug the NC/SC line. It won't reach into Henderson and Transylvania counties. Those are notorious CAD counties, even when areas around them are collapsing.

Heartily agree! I have seen many storms bust and those counties, and us here in Saluda NC, stay the course with the CAD. I think that D area needs a thin lobe to extend down into eastern Henderson. I'm actually worried this is a repeat of Feb 2010 when CAD kept Saluda and Flat rock NC just cold enough to jackpot with 8 inch icicles on everything and no power for 4 days. I remember wlos didn't even report on us for 36 hours as they didn't believe that an ice storm could be that localized...

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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One thing I notice right off the bat is that my dew point is -1 degree F right now. That gives me a wet-bulb of 15 degrees! If precip moved in right now the temps would plummet,

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GSP has me with as much as 4-6 of snow an .25 of ice along the escarpment. They also think freezing temps will hang on longest along the escarpment, not good at all. Very scary situation up here. I trust GSP more than anything, them guys know there stuff.

They have me in the same general forecast with a winter storm warning. But from the talks on the forum that I have seen even us here with the warnings will get nothing to very little...

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I'd like to officially issue a BCW for our area. A BCW (Bored Children Watch) is issued whenever there is a high likelihood of children staying home from school for no reason, couped up inside because of cold rain, and driving parents batsh8t crazy.

Such a waste of record cold. This winter sucks.

Eh, I think the roads will be bad regardless of what we get because it has been so cold. Not impressed by how a lot of the modeling is now wanting to focus the overrunning up in S VA. That is our chance at snow... It's going to be mega-frustrating to watch all the overrunning hammering S VA and maybe even the border counties of NC with decent snow whole we twitter out thumbs and hope for flurries.

I'll be stubborn and stick with 1-3" SN/IP with 0.1-0.25" ZR, but I'm starting to wonder if I might need to cut that make to T-1".

Anyways, it is 22/-3. Not sure we make our forecasted high of 30 today.

EDIT: The 12z RGEM and GFS actually look a little better for us than the 6z runs, though. Guess we'll just have to watch the radar and see where the band sets up tonight.

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Why, folks are accurately interpreting the model runs and its not good news if you want more than a quick dusting to inch and then a little bit of sleet/zr east of I 77..

We'll see. All we know kw is there is potential. How much we actually get is yet to be determined. A couple of inches of snow and ice would be a big impact on the roads here Monday, and that is the typical storm we usually get here. I don't think it can be dismissed as not a big deal yet.

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Once again, HRRR does well within 1-3 hours of the event.

 

But looking at it this far out, it did horrible.  Go back and look.  So taking it verbatim right now is dangerous.

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8" forecasted here (not too far from the 8-12" zone) with about 0.10" of ice on top of that. Fun stuff. Best thing about this is it won't be around long.

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I've noted folks lamenting school schedules tomorrow. Don't kids get off for President's Day anymore? Not that it really matters down here, with a smattering of ice likely, but I remember my young'un getting the day off back in the day.

 

...and soon as I post, I see Nic has the answer. Many thanks!

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I'm getting reports via FB that the snow falling in SW VA on radar IS reaching the ground. Already a dusting out that way.

When was it initially forecasted to start for that area? The sun is shining bright here but I did just notice that twc has now given us a 40% chance of snow showers for today. That wasn't there an hour ago, but we also have to take that with a grain of salt imo.

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