mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Mean precip looks to be around 1" for DC for that event.Just about what it was when Matt was doing a gfs pbp when the bliz first showed up goving us "only" a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Just about what it was when Matt was doing a gfs pbp when the bliz first showed up goving us "only" a foot. How far out was the blizzard showing up on ops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Just about what it was when Matt was doing a gfs pbp when the bliz first showed up goving us "only" a foot. but this is 10 days out... the models must be getting better ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Just about what it was when Matt was doing a gfs pbp when the bliz first showed up goving us "only" a foot. too early for the details, but there are some turd members in there if you like snow and live near the big cities. Def favors n/w attm, but obvs silly to worry at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Really, really awesome sign is the huge HP showing up on a ton of the individual gfs ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'd have to go back and search for Matt's pbp...but I'll find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 the big features for snowzilla started showing up on globals as far as 12 days out... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sure, let's all jump on a +10 day unicorn threat. I mean, c'mon, a huge blizzard happening a few weeks before obviously increases the chances of another one happening, the same way an EF5 tornado means more EF5s, right? Just because the LR models got right on one storm, doesn't mean they'll be correct again. A broken clock is right twice a day. A +10 day threat hardly has much veracity, especially when we're talking about the 18z GFS, which so many of you knock when it dares show a rainstorm or warm pattern. This threat should be approached with more caution, IMO. A majority of the posters on this sub-forum have been tracking wx for a long time bud. We understand it is 10 days out lol.....We're hyped over the PATTERN being shown, not the exact storm. We're not just talking about the 18z GFS though. We're talking about the 12z GFS, 18z GFS + GEFS, 00z PARA EURO, 00z PARA EURO ensembles, 00z EURO & Ensemble, & 12z EURO & Ensemble. So, yea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Also CiBill....This is a weather forum and we're posting in the mediumlong range sub-thread. I mean, would you rather us post about the low temps day 5 instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 The one thing that seems unusual is the shortwave comes in in the pac nw and gets shoved south. IIRC the big storms in 09-10 were all from sw's coming into CA. The blizzard this year entered the conus in CA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 definition of a wet blanket. I love when ne'er do wells from outside regions come in here and tell us sh*t we already know as if they're helping us or teaching us something new. "Hey guys, it's a 10 day prog, it might not come true!" "Be careful, it's not a lock". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sure, let's all jump on a +10 day unicorn threat. I mean, c'mon, a huge blizzard happening a few weeks before obviously increases the chances of another one happening, the same way an EF5 tornado means more EF5s, right? Just because the LR models got right on one storm, doesn't mean they'll be correct again. A broken clock is right twice a day. A +10 day threat hardly has much veracity, especially when we're talking about the 18z GFS, which so many of you knock when it dares show a rainstorm or warm pattern. This threat should be approached with more caution, IMO. Go away and never return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 We get another 6" or so at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The one thing that seems unusual is the shortwave comes in in the pac nw and gets shoved south. IIRC the big storms in 09-10 were all from sw's coming into CA. The blizzard this year entered the conus in CA as well. Bob didn't the Blizzard enter around Washington state? Going to look it up. I just remember tracking the shortwave coming on shore in the NW fwiw. Probably wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Just for laughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 We get another 6" or so at the end of the run. PNA doesn't want to end. Anytime we can score a 50/50 look we got a good chance of cashing in. Nice HP being shown around the 19th too. Let's rock Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Just for laughs Its even more on wxbell... I think instantweathermaps is doing something weird with ratios because kuchera has us at 2' as well. This matters a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not too shabby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I love when ne'er do wells from outside regions come in here and tell us sh*t we already know as if they're helping us or teaching us something new. "Hey guys, it's a 10 day prog, it might not come true!" "Be careful, it's not a lock". How would we know anything about weather if 40N wasn't here to drop by and teach us like we're 6 years old? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I thought fir sure the blizz shortwave entered near the OR/WA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I thought fir sure the blizz shortwave entered near the OR/WA border. Yes, it did (at least as I recall it). I remember tracking it when it was well north of Hawaii in the Pacific and it moving onshore near the OR/WA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The one thing that seems unusual is the shortwave comes in in the pac nw and gets shoved south. IIRC the big storms in 09-10 were all from sw's coming into CA. The blizzard this year entered the conus in CA as well. 1048 HP is gonna shove it south for sure. I would be worried about it getting squashed below us. But the HP is in the perfect position on this run. This one has a legitimate chance to be another big one for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Go away and never return.Think in almost everything you get seasons with preferred zones. Could be we are one this winter. Not really a repeating pattern here though per se. I'll pretend that was the look I was expecting if it happens though. Works for other people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sure, let's all jump on a +10 day unicorn threat. I mean, c'mon, a huge blizzard happening a few weeks before obviously increases the chances of another one happening, the same way an EF5 tornado means more EF5s, right? Just because the LR models got right on one storm, doesn't mean they'll be correct again. A broken clock is right twice a day. A +10 day threat hardly has much veracity, especially when we're talking about the 18z GFS, which so many of you knock when it dares show a rainstorm or warm pattern. This threat should be approached with more caution, IMO. You should probably stick to trolling the NYC forum per your usual antics. You should also probably check the Euro OP, the Euro control, the GEFS, and the EPS just to name a few in regards to the D+10 setup. Yes, temper expectations at this range, but being it has mucho support, your doom and gloom over the pattern is slightly unjustified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sure, let's all jump on a +10 day unicorn threat. I mean, c'mon, a huge blizzard happening a few weeks before obviously increases the chances of another one happening, the same way an EF5 tornado means more EF5s, right? Just because the LR models got right on one storm, doesn't mean they'll be correct again. A broken clock is right twice a day. A +10 day threat hardly has much veracity, especially when we're talking about the 18z GFS, which so many of you knock when it dares show a rainstorm or warm pattern. This threat should be approached with more caution, IMO. First flakes are only nine days out not 10+ but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 with most globals on board with the big features im looking forward to 10 days of OMG, IT'S HAPPENING, OMFG DID YOU SEE THE EURO, and of course Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ok, here it is. It was a 12z or 18z run i believe on 1/13 (9 days before the storm) that Matt said that the gfs gave us a foot. I'm on my phone and the mobile version doesn't let me link the url of the exact post so I'm giving you the page of the thread...it's near the top. How's that for remembering a post over 3 weeks ago! Soooo, it's not too soon to get serious. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47563-january-medlong-range-disco-part-2/page-44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I look forward to the descriptors like pummeled, crushed, stone cold assassin, rippage and my favorite brutal beat down. let the games begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 with most globals on board with the big features im looking forward to 10 days of OMG, IT'S HAPPENING, OMFG DID YOU SEE THE EURO, and of course Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Prolonged sleep deprivation again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yes, it did (at least as I recall it). I remember tracking it when it was well north of Hawaii in the Pacific and it moving onshore near the OR/WA border. Maybe it did. I look at so much stuff it just falls out of my brain when the RAM gets full. I was thinking northern cali. In the end it doesn't matter. Each storm has its own personality. Every has that classic look right now. And it's only 10 days away so nothing should change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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