dailylurker Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks nice and chilly next week too! Snowpack will stay a bit fresher this time, although sun angle is a melt factory even in colder air!Congrats. Your the first person to bring up sun angle this season. Sun angle is overrated. I watched freezing rain accumulate during the day in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Congrats. Your the first person to bring up sun angle this season. Sun angle is overrated. I watched freezing rain accumulate during the day in March. You're only kidding yourself if you think it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter a LOT right now, but give it 28 days and it's a different story. Doesn't matter...........right now we are good, and have an opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You're only kidding yourself if you think it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter a LOT right now, but give it 28 days and it's a different story. Doesn't matter...........right now we are good, and have an opportunity. This is one of the stupidest debates that comes up every year. Of course it matters, tho it matters a whole lot less if it's cold and ripping snow. It's also generally ~Feb 15 and beyond it's more an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This is one of the stupidest debates that comes up every year. Of course it matters, tho it matters a whole lot less if it's cold and ripping snow. It's also generally ~Feb 15 and beyond it's more an issue. There are lots of stupid things debated. They just don't all get pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah, like PSUHoffman getting fringed every storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If we are watching the Superbowl this Sunday tracking a nice 4-8 inch snow for Tuesday, I will be delirious over this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If we are watching the Superbowl this Sunday tracking a nice 4-8 inch snow for Tuesday, I will be delirious over this winter! I have missed a good majority of our major snow events due to work travel. I am on travel starting Monday. We are good to go for this event so be excited because it will probably trend even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah, like PSUHoffman getting fringed every storm...I'm fringes on the euro and ggem I'm very worried!!! At this point it's a running joke but I'm supersticious enough that I have to keep saying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This is one of the stupidest debates that comes up every year. Of course it matters, tho it matters a whole lot less if it's cold and ripping snow. It's also generally ~Feb 15 and beyond it's more an issue. I agree. Right now we're safe. End of month. Different story. Sorry.. didn't mean to open this can of worms lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 EPS mean slp favors the low popping in front of the trough on the va/nc border. Trough has more dig than 0z. This is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I counted 12 members of the EPS with a 4-8" deal, definitely a step up from 12z. mean snowfall went from 2"-3.5, including 0.5" from tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Solid eps run. Especially compared to 0z. Almost unanimous that the low forms and tracks south of DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Solid eps run. Especially compared to 0z. Almost unanimous that the low forms and tracks south of DCA. Excellent news Bob... hope 18z GFS keeps it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 LWX afternoon disco A MUCH LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TODROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES INTO THEOHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. A NEW SURFACE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM COULD FORM OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHEASTFLANK OF THIS BROAD LOW AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.THIS NEWLY FORMED LOW COULD HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT TO OURREGION...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY BEFOREBECOMING MORE OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT WITHCOLDER AIR TO SUPPORT THE NEW LOW.ONE SIMILARITY WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS MODEL WITH THISNEW LOW IS BOTH CLOSE OFF THE NEW LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTTUESDAY BEFORE PIVOTING IT NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TUESDAYNIGHT.THE DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL DETERMINEWHETHER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GETS HIT HARD WITH ANOTHER SNOWSTORMOR GETS A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.RIGHT NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL CLOSES THE LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THECHESAPEAKE BAY AND MAKES IT A STRONGER LOW. THE GFS MODEL CLOSES THELOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DELAWARE BAY...FARTHER NORTH...AND IS NOTAS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR THE TIME BEING...WE HAVE A CHANCE OFRAIN OR SNOW IN OUR REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 JMA on board sort of....combined panels roughly .4-.5" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm going to go all IMBY for a second and say, down with the Euro.. unless the jackpot zone shifts north, then bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Solid eps run. Especially compared to 0z. Almost unanimous that the low forms and tracks south of DCA. 5" mean for DCA and 6" mean for BWI for those w/o maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Great EPS run. Shows 2 possible pac shortwaves affecting us d10-15. The trend of moving away from or pushing back ridging in the east continues. Looks good through d12-13. Pretty nice window shaping up during prime climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm going to go all IMBY for a second and say, down with the Euro.. unless the jackpot zone shifts north, then bring it. Poor you, only 6", Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm going to go all IMBY for a second and say, down with the Euro.. unless the jackpot zone shifts north, then bring it. EPS has you at 6.5" for the 15-day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 too easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think it's a comparable track to the last one with 25-33% of the accumulation I also agree with Zwyts that it's not a typical die out and transfer but more of a moderate low that moves southeast and weakens and the start reintensifying over east central Nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z NAM @ 84 hrs FWIW looks pretty good to me. Looks almost identical to GFS @ 90 hrs, except maybe a bit S.....Pretty interesting time period next week. Just as a fan of meteorology I am interested to see how this one plays out because it isn't a 'normal' looking setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 too easy No seriously. You get 6" while Southern Fauquier county gets a foot. You're this close to getting fringed. I really don't want to be in your spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 EPS has you at 6.5" for the 15-day period Take a look at the control run for giggles. A blocked MA hecs on the 16-17th. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 No seriously. You get 6" while Southern Fauquier county gets a foot. You're this close to getting fringed. I really don't want to be in your spot right now. OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z NAM @ 84 hrs FWIW looks pretty good to me. Looks almost identical to GFS @ 90 hrs, except maybe a bit S.....Pretty interesting time period next week. Just as a fan of meteorology I am interested to see how this one plays out because it isn't a 'normal' looking setup. and that's PSUHoffman's favorite model too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm not so sure about d10 - 15 anymore. Ens are starting to have some run to run continuity of looking pretty crappy. I hope they're wrong of course but can't really ignore it. Probably a window as the big cold departs and ao flips back + at least. Bob?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Take a look at the control run for giggles. A blocked MA hecs on the 16-17th. lol. see, that's what I envisioned, but not until AFTER the 15th!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 18z NAM @ 84 hrs FWIW looks pretty good to me. Looks almost identical to GFS @ 90 hrs, except maybe a bit S.....Pretty interesting time period next week. Just as a fan of meteorology I am interested to see how this one plays out because it isn't a 'normal' looking setup. in all seriousness, comparing the 81 hr 5H on this run to the 84 hr. from the 12Z, this run is definitely further south and the pesky trough off the SE coast is further east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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