mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 CMC is exactly what we want. Great dig and slp pops over va/nc border. Then we get hit with a norlun. Lock that S up.That norlun or norlun type feature is likely what the Euro sees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 So...gfs/cmc/ukie all dig the trough better than any recent run. Cmc/ukie have nice slp placement. Not bad. Hopefully the euro shows a similar trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I am checking on the B and W maps and I don't see anything... unless you are talking abnout yhe Friday event Don't know what's happening for you, but there's something wrong. It's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I don't see any CMC looks to have over an inch of precip from Northern Va to Balto. Please see your eye doctor ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 So...gfs/cmc/ukie all dig the trough better than any recent run. Cmc/ukie have nice slp placement. Not bad. Hopefully the euro shows a similar trend. With this much time left, there's no telling what this might end up as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Was just getting ready to post this. Am I looking at the right maps? Yes you are... I again wish there was a 132 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 CMC looks to have over an inch of precip from Northern Va to Balto. Please see your eye doctor ASAP. I had to clear the cache, the B and W maps didnt update till then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 With this much time left, there's no telling what this might end up as. No doubt. I'm not used to things like this trending better inside of 5 days. This is when we usually see the miller b screw job starting to take shape. Of course we still have plenty of time for that too. I'll just enjoy the 12z runs for now and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Even if it looks bad, somebody do the " Euro " thing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 UKIE digs the trough for gold into the gulf; a definite shift south from its 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I had to clear the cache, the B and W maps didnt update till then 30 minute time out. Start it now so you'll be ready for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 I can see a mecs happening between these 2 panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GGEM is 36 hours worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I can see a mecs happening between these 2 panels. ukie120.JPG ukie144.JPG Wow. They're pictures of your financial independence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wow. They're pictures of your financial independence. 10k solves about 1 semester of problems. We might have to go double or nothing. Especially if I lose! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 #TeamCanada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 10k solves about 1 semester of problems. We might have to go double or nothing. Especially if I lose! lolI was just repeating one of those late night, get rich scheme commercials. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Comparatively smoked compared to the rest is what I meant. I'm starting to think organized coastal low pressure is a more likely outcome than a strung out mess that the ops are showing right now. GFS was pretty close as it is and we have 4 days to go. I agree its likely the surface reflection trends better once we are closer and models can get a better picture of what to key on, and I am not yet convinced that any transfer would be to a location 100 miles inland like that when the better baroclinic zone is probably along the coast. Furthermore I am almost sure the models have not yet accurately nailed the details of the trough orientation and vort track and so all the rest is subject to change. These changes could be better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Anyone have an idea of how often better trends for us are first seen on the GGEM and UKIE? This is a serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Anyone have an idea of how often better trends for us are first seen on the GGEM and UKIE? This is a serious question. The GFS also had a better trend... Mostly at H5 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The 12z GEFS is much improved for you guys on the Mon/Tuesday potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GFS ensembles are following the footsteps of the op. Better dig, sharper through and closes the 500's off. Also has better separation with the low out to sea. All in all a pretty good improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Gefs isn't as far south as the ggem, but it's south of the op with the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Link/images guys? That sounds good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Link/images guys? That sounds good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Pack, can you post 120hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Pack, can you post 120hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 00Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Pack, can you post 120hrs? 114 individ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Anyone have an idea of how often better trends for us are first seen on the GGEM and UKIE? This is a serious question. with so many opportunities over the years every model has its moment to pick up on something first, the real question is how likely is it. The GGEM is pretty low in verification scores overall. Its Ensembles I believe, do a little better, and the RGEM is a quality short range tool, but the GGEM is pretty bad. The UKMET is actually a very good model with solid verification scores, but its less utilized because of its poor availability and crappy graphics. It does sometimes over amplify things, or at least that was a known bias a few years ago, not sure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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