Ian Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Run has a nice lengthy -AO and it's a closer than we've been to a lengthier -NAO at range.. goes there late but it's kind of a 1998 config with another height anomaly in a not so great spot over NE and north. I still get sense they won't truly see the high lat change well, but my concern there is still that it sets up too late. Of course the 0c and 32 sfc line is north of Toronto at the end so it could be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If the GFS fantasy range verifies, winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If the GFS fantasy range verifies, winter is over. well we know it won't but the sum of LR guidance at this point isn't too pretty. that said, there's already precedence for them to be wrong with certain things that shake up the whole pattern. though again the pattern late does sort of look like Jan 1998 and we know how that went. CA needs some more precip soon though, esp south, so we could probably take one for the team at this point. edit: urgh, was looking at 18z AO/NAO stuff. sleep time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 0z gefs look pretty bad for any organized snow chances over the next 8 days. Time to flip through a bunch of blizzard pics as I fall asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 0z gefs look pretty bad for any organized snow chances over the next 8 days. Time to flip through a bunch of blizzard pics as I fall asleep. I just reviewed 153 snowmaggedden pictures. What a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 00Z Euro op surface reflection is a strung out mess with the transfer that quickly pulls out to sea. Shows a strip of 2 to 4 for N Va and southern MD over to the shore. No getting around it, the first low is throwing a monkey wrench into the works of what otherwise would be a promising setup. But what else is new, living in the mid-Atlantic you get used to this. That being said I don't think it is anywhere near time to stick a fork in this. After looking at the 500's for tonight's run for both the means and the op they are actually somewhat promising. To my eye they suggest a southwesterly adjustment with the transfer as well as a more consolidated low compared to the op. Haven't looked at the ensemble members yet but would not be surprised if they reflect this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Gfs gets low 1 out of the way but doesn't dig the trough enough. Euro dugs the trough perfectly for us but bombs out low 1 and with a 970 low sitting not far off the coast your not going to be able to really develop anything behind it so it's a strung out mess. Ggem is closer to euro then gfs with trough evolution. I'll take that as I would rather get a better h5 pass and be rooting for a better surface then the other way around. Gfs h5 would be game over. At the least there would be some funky convective bands around and perhaps an inverted trough type deal with the h5 pass so something to watch even without a better surface reflection. Still way out there and convoluted so not going to analyze it anymore then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Gfs gets low 1 out of the way but doesn't dig the trough enough. Euro dugs the trough perfectly for us but bombs out low 1 and with a 970 low sitting not far off the coast your not going to be able to really develop anything behind it so it's a strung out mess. Ggem is closer to euro then gfs with trough evolution. I'll take that as I would rather get a better h5 pass and be rooting for a better surface then the other way around. Gfs h5 would be game over. At the least there would be some funky convective bands around and perhaps an inverted trough type deal with the h5 pass so something to watch even without a better surface reflection. Still way out there and convoluted so not going to analyze it anymore then that. Haven't looked as hard into the GFS as I should because I think some of its bias' are coming into play. I also noticed that the GEM was very similar to the Euro so that has also played into my leaning towards the Euro. Probably a mistake considering that the GFS outperformed the Euro recently. I did notice that from the Euro 12Z and previous runs to tonights run that that the means are showing a quicker progression of getting the Atlantic low into a 50/50 position and we were seeing a corresponding response down stream at 5oo's. I myself think that if we can see just a little quicker solution with that, that it would do wonders with the setup. What are your thoughts on that? Edit: Actually after looking a little harder at the Atlantic low, as it rides up into the general 50/50 region, I wonder if the 500's are responding more so to the greater separation between it and the forming Miller B. Or maybe a combination of both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The means are showing a more consolidated low, in roughly the same position, with what looks to be a slightly quicker transfer. Euro snowfall means have reflected this with an area wide 1/2 to 1 inch increase from the 12Z with the same Miller B type distribution of snow. Shows Dc firmly in the 2" zone with far NE MD skirting with 3 1/2". As far as the longer range it is very similar to the 12Z and once again suggest that after this Miller B snow will be hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 6z rgem rubs salt in the wound giving sby 5" tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 00z parallel GFS and 06z GFS still have some light snow monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Glancing at the Euro individual members about the only thing that can be determined is that they favor a Miller B setup. Where that sets up and how it evolves is anyone's guess. To add to the confusion there are now enough members now showing solutions that put the initial Atlantic low into play for us that you can not wholly discount it. Of course that solution brings its own issues with temps. In the long run this setup has screw job written all over it but at least it will be an interesting few days of tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 00z parallel GFS and 06z GFS still have some light snow event monday night.6z is mainly light rain per ncep site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Glancing at the Euro individual members about the only thing that can be determined is that they favor a Miller B setup. Where that sets up and how it evolves is anyone's guess. To add to the confusion there are now enough members now showing solutions that put the initial Atlantic low into play for us that you can not wholly discount it. Of course that solution brings its own issues with temps. In the long run this setup has screw job written all over it but at least it will be an interesting few days of tracking it. Still a couple more days where this can trend towards us. Although a big event is looking unlikely I'm not totally out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Our best shot looks like 2/15 unless tonight surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 6z is mainly light rain per ncep site LOL of course. Didn't even think to look below 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 that 2/15 timeframe keeps showing up as something to watch. It would be nice to have something to track for a few days, get a nice little storm, and then leave the winter buffet not full but at least satisfied that we got to climo. imagine if we erased those magical two days..the Panic Room thread would have been renamed the Morgue thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Eps Low clustering for storm 2 is south of 12z which argues further south transfer. As others have said no way this is a right off yet. Heck all models still give us some snow regardless. 500 mb on euro looks prime as Psu said. The Euro actually looks reasonably interesting to me, that band of moderate snow south of us around 120 gives me some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 We are sooooo close to a fluke with this event tomorrow morning, it's incredible. Just look at the srefs' last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 We are sooooo close to a fluke with this event tomorrow morning, it's incredible. Just look at the srefs' last run. We were talking about it in the short-term thread, but if you are into it as well I think someone should make a thread. Who has good storm mojo right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 We are sooooo close to a fluke with this event tomorrow morning, it's incredible. Just look at the srefs' last run. Its happening. Mount Holly is already talking about the potential for as much as 3-4" towards the DE coast. Surface temps are an issue, so dynamical cooling will have to do its thing. At this point I may see an inch at my house...but its trendinggg.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 We are sooooo close to a fluke with this event tomorrow morning, it's incredible. Just look at the srefs' last run. Check out the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Its happening. Mount Holly is already talking about the potential for as much as 3-4" towards the DE coast. Surface temps are an issue, so dynamical cooling will have to do its thing. At this point I may see an inch at my house...but its trendinggg.. Imho, the only thing stopping you from getting 2-4" are temps. If they cooperate, you'll get that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Check out the RAP Lol. I just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Lol. I just did. sorry to ask, have a link???nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 sorry to ask, have a link???nevermind http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Para euro is similar to the op with snow during the transfer and has the same mini jack just south of DC. Looks like a 10" bullseye with dc getting 5-6. Baltimore 2". Ji berg around 6-7. Euro ops really like the mini bullseye to the west of the low. Euro ens means pop a low south of DC and off the coast. It's a messy situation that is trending away from any a big storm but right now we aren't in a terrible spot to pick up something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ wow, tyvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Para euro is similar to the op with snow during the transfer and has the same mini jack just south of DC. Looks like a 10" bullseye with dc getting 5-6. Baltimore 2". Ji berg around 6-7. Euro ops really like the mini bullseye to the west of the low. Euro ens means pop a low south of DC and off the coast. It's a messy situation that is trending away from any a big storm but right now we aren't in a terrible spot to pick up something. North trend baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Our best shot looks like 2/15 unless tonight surprises. I think that is our best shot as well. All of the models have a strong HP moving into the right position for us in that time frame. The GL low is the kiss of death on the next event. But that really isnt a surprise to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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