NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro rains on the parade, figuratively and literally. Low tracks to true Central and everyone goes to rain after light snow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the 70's? Man you're old .... You may have nailed it, no adjustments needed. No science behind it, just a gut instinct on my part, but i agree with you and told my wife this on Tuesday evening. I was born in '65. One of my first snowstorm memories was from the winter of 72-73. I developed a horrible ear infection on the day we got like 9" of snow but it blew and blew and blew. I was taken to the doctor that day on a snowmobile... Nut, was that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Wind Chill Advisories dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The euro has a sh!t ton of rain for most of us. That was one ugly run!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The funny thing is...there is melting going on today. And it's only in the low 20s. If we had this exact same weather back the 1st week of January the only melting would be on treated roads. The sun angle is real...BUT, it gets overplayed too much as well. the snow you see melting is likely on the roads correct? Probably the same roads that have tons and TONS of anti skid down...ya know, the stuff that melts to 14deg F. Or maybe a rooftop that has a wood stove, or 70k btu heat source under it.....Just sayin. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The euro has a sh!t ton of rain for most of us. That was one ugly run!! and the Doc says (sings)............ its my party... and I'll rain if I want to.... I smell a fight Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I have a hard time buying plain rain after an arctic outbreak. Ice storm imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 and the Doc says (sings)............ its my party... and I'll rain if I want to.... I smell a fight Nut Yea...the euro always seems to rip our hearts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the snow you see melting is likely on the roads correct? Probably the same roads that have tons and TONS of anti skid down...ya know, the stuff that melts to 14deg F. Or maybe a rooftop that has a wood stove, or 70k btu heat source under it.....Just sayin. Nut Haha I explain this constantly. Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the snow you see melting is likely on the roads correct? Probably the same roads that have tons and TONS of anti skid down...ya know, the stuff that melts to 14deg F. Or maybe a rooftop that has a wood stove, or 70k btu heat source under it.....Just sayin. Nut No. Seeing much more grass on south facing slopes than I did this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I have a hard time buying plain rain after an arctic outbreak. Ice storm imo. If the euro is right, and it's that amped up ice will be very little concern. Flooding on the other hand would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If the euro is right, and it's that amped up ice will be very little concern. Flooding on the other hand would be. Especially south and east of the mountains. I've seen storms produce plain rain on the same day my temp was in the single digits that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yea I gotta say we hold onto cold temps crazy well up here, but I guess it could be right. In fact, probably will be lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 LOL ITS THE EURO LOLOLOLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Especially south and east of the mountains. I've seen storms produce plain rain on the same day my temp was in the single digits that morning. So have I. When I was much younger and didn't understand things like I do today, I'd wonder how that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 euro has me at 3.1" liquid and 9" of snow (which is prob 9" of sleet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 euro has me at 3.1" liquid and 9" of snow (which is prob 9" of sleet) On the bright side, you'll have a white ground until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 On the bright side, you'll have a white ground until May. lmao, Mike on his A game today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 On the bright side, you'll have a white ground until May. lol...tru dat... Euro's over amped bias has to be part of what were seeing. For anyone to say its been rock solid...is just a hugger...as MOST of the 12z were wagons EAST...not west. Still think that even a logical compromise, puts true Central/NC and yes NEPAboy into the good stuff. I'll be smelling the rain down here and watching it wash away my precious snow. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 lol...tru dat... Euro's over amped bias has to be part of what were seeing. For anyone to say its been rock solid...is just a hugger...as MOST of the 12z were wagons EAST...not west. Still think that even a logical compromise, puts true Central/NC and yes NEPAboy into the good stuff. I'll be smelling the rain down here and watching it wash away my precious snow. Nut From what I have read the past few days the euro parallel has been east of operational, though have not seen any of it myself to confirm that or not. Also... "...SHORT WAVE CROSSING PACIFIC NORTHWEST SAT TO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY MON... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SHORT WAVE AS IT TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SAT TO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY SUN. THE 12Z GFS CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF MEAN WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE OVER IA SUN...WHILE THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST AND FLAT BY THE END OF DAY 3. THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SD INTO NE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF MAXIMUM. THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...SO THERE MAY BE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON SHORT WAVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THE SHORT WAVE GETS INTO THE RADIOSONDE NETWORK." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just wish we could all get crushed. Just once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just wish we could all get crushed. Just once. If one model was going to be so bad, why oh why does it have to be the Euro? The NAM looked like it would be good. The GFS was good for most. The GEM was good for most. And then doc came to the house and said "NO!" And I think most of us are having private counseling sessions telling ourselves we know who's going to be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think I also read that the Para is doing pretty well, and yes you are correct, it has been east (and so have the ensembles...if memory serves). mind you were talking euro here...not all of em. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If one model was going to be so bad, why oh why does it have to be the Euro? The NAM looked like it would be good. The GFS was good for most. The GEM was good for most. And then doc came to the house and said "NO!" And I think most of us are having private counseling sessions telling ourselves we know who's going to be right... You've been on your game today man! Enjoying the posts. Between our Mets and LSV guys we have best subforum around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Light snow in Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 LOL ITS THE EURO LOLOLOLOL With the way it has performed of late....lol is the best description! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Allweather, loved the live Facebook chat on WGAL Facebook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Woah. Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Southwest wind 5 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 The Euro op remains the furthest west and amped up of the model solutions in today's 12z suite. It's ensemble mean still indicates a good bit of uncertainty with lack of a truly coherent low center, widespread QPF and pretty uniform 850 contours. Overall it's a bit warmer and west of the GEFS mean. The GFS is more in the middle and the Canadian keeps most precip east and doesn't really have much of a snow swath after an initial push of lighter snowfall through the state. Despite the differences, the GFS and Euro are in fact pretty high impact winter storms for the commonwealth.. just in different portions. The Euro gets the Pit gang and NW PA pretty good snow wise, and gives central a decent front and tail end.. with at least some ice issues in the middle. It seemed most everyone got some kind of front end snowfall. One thing that has been consistent with this event the last several days... is that this storm is going to have a narrow swath of heavy snowfall, so it's likely that there will be winners and losers in PA as a whole and probably in this sub forum region. The high positioning (or lack thereof..as it's well east) is def a disadvantage and a major factor as to why the storm will have a narrow swath of snow and ice.. so track is probably even more crucial than usual. Without the high up north this will probably be purely a where the low tracks vs a miller B/secondary scenario. The Euro apps track is certainly not one you actually see very often but it's not impossible either. GFS is the more typical coastal track but favors central/eastern and leaves western PA fairly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I was born in '65. One of my first snowstorm memories was from the winter of 72-73. I developed a horrible ear infection on the day we got like 9" of snow but it blew and blew and blew. I was taken to the doctor that day on a snowmobile... Nut, was that you? Nope....but I've been "on call" for our fire company (well my sons as hes a junior member),.. and I was only 3 Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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