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Ian

Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting

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Shoveled 2nd time. Heavier icy snow this time. Rimed flakes falling now. Too tired to take more than a half dozen measurements but we here in PW have between 5.5-6. Thats what I got. Leesburg, Jeb or Bristow confirm?

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We face East/West. The drive way is the east facing. The wind is coming from behind our row and whipping around the side. We may be getting more drifting pumping up those clear off totals. Deck only looks to be about 4", it faces West and is getting the winds. 

I was eyeballing 4-4.5", but hadn't been outside.

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Is it just me, or is that mix zone getting closer to NOVA per the latest CC loops?

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.LWX.N0C.20160123.120.00

 

 

It will get a bit further north and have everyone panic, but as the mid level lows nuke near and east of DC, that will then collapse east later tonight. 

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Steady snow, 20 degrees, NNE winds gusting to 26 mph. Drifting is evident. Noticed some quarter inch graupels mixed in with the snowflakes. I remember one of the mets mention a rime layer below the dendritic growth layer yesterday while we were all examining the model runs.

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Just got back from a nice Jeb walk as the rates are picking up. But I did not expect that stiff of a wind this early in the evening.

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Is it just me, or is that mix zone getting closer to NOVA per the latest CC loops?

 

*snip*

 

-SNPL in RIC. So, it is a >0C layer. Not sure how much farther north it will get, more likely to pivot east and across before attacking from the east.

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61 at Hatteras, SE winds 30-40 -- development potential looks awesome to me. 1.89" (measured earlier, daily record) rain at ATL has turned to wet snow, Just two clues in the puzzle, cold air holding strong, sky's the limit on this snowstorm.

 

RIC probably will oscillate all night with bands shifting but I think they will settle into heavy snow by morning.

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Exactly... that is beyond the predictability of the high resolution guidance. However, the fact that you see such an impressive band run after run gives you confidence it will develop at some point, and somebody is in for near record accumulations, and possibly >3" per hour snowfall rates. 

 

It may be more useful to think of it probabilistically... where a large region in N VA, MD, and PA has the chance (30-50%) of getting under the 3" per hour snowfall band. As the band begins to set up, it will become more clear who really is going to jackpot from this event.

 

This guidance is available from the NCAR ensemble, which showed the highest probabilities of such a band off to the north and west of DC metro... but DC proper still has a 20-30% chance of getting under it. 

 

url: http://www.image.ucar.edu/wrfdart/ensemble/images.php?d=2016012200&f=snow_neprob_3.0&r=MATL

 

snow_neprob_3.0_f039_MATL.png

 

that's usually the case because of the steady increase in elevation to the northwest from the fall line between dc and bmore.  i think part of that is just due to the orographics of this region, but i could be wrong.

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Yes, that's where it always is no matter what the models show. They always jackpot unless it is a southern storm that is already fringing DCA. A huge band will set up over the northern tier tomorrow and dump for hours and hours while DCA and SE gets moderate snow. Eventually the band will swing through and give DC some sloppy seconds but by that time it will have blown its load.

 

If the storm kicks out a bit further east, that area will too. Just my guess based on what I see.

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What's the best radar app out there?

 

Radarscope (iOS and Android). $10, but the best $10 on a app you will spend in your life. #1 app for a weather enthusiast, bar-none. 

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It will get a bit further north and have everyone panic, but as the mid level lows nuke near and east of DC, that will then collapse east later tonight. 

rgem showed it stalling there right around there.

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I'm seeing that, too, but haven't been paying attention to the longer term trends.

those are just giant dendrites

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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