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stormtracker

January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter

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Lol- ninja'd!

 

Incredible stuff were seeing. Almost hard to believe honestly. And everything looks the same. Wow. 

 

Funny that we picked the same hour as an example.  When the location of that inner contour showed up, I got giddy.

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Well that changed quick! Wow what a huge backdoor add-on as the system pulls away!

 

I still think the western extent and totals are under done given slp track and h5. The comma would be expansive and dynamic. Not just I-95 and east. 

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Funny that we picked the same hour as an example.  When the location of that inner contour showed up, I got giddy.

 

I'm archiving all this stuff. Every weather geek should be doing the same. Simply amazing upper level progression from start to finish. I may be dead before I see it again. 

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Paul Kocin wrote up an outlook for this. Calls it "textbook" and used analogs of Jan 96, feb 10, and pd2.

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Not sure how the depth is done.  Really, should be looking at precip instead of any of the derived snow products anyway.

 

attachicon.gifUSA_APCPIPER_sfc_120.gif

 

My understanding is that the depth is handled by the land surface model which accounts for soil temps, etc.

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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016

HIGHLIGHTS...

LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE

POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY

THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE

RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES.

COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE

SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO

THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS

SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN

THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES

NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN

MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT

MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE

NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER

NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER

EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE

AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND

TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN.

IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS

WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF

THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS

FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS

ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE.

IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE

PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z

GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR

TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS

MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN

ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN

IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE

CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR

THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND

THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM

NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN

NEW ENGLAND.

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL

DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS

IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE

JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY

2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY

TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR

SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.

IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO

DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL

INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE...

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT

ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO

IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL

SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE

TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE

FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH

AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS

PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF

PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE.

KOCIN

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Kocin:

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS
IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE
JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY
2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY
TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR
SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.

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