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Wow

Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion

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nam is running, lets see if it continues to shift that slp north into the convective band or comes around to the euro/gfs solution

Looks like it's deeper. 

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SREF is actually more south of the last run. 

 

21z

 

 

 

3z

 

 

SREF is definitely still figuring things out, it's probabilities were useless as the s/w stayed positive and never even went neutral yesterday...lol

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Looks like a huge jump eastward at hour 9; or maybe I'm not comparing it correctly to hour 3 at 6z.

 

Edit: I was looking at the hours backwards..

looks identical out to 15 to me

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I don't think Roanoke is safe. Hour 45 at 775mb 0.0  Warm nose is often stronger than modeled so I am expecting some sleet.  This is 1 degree colder than 00z last night so maybe it will trend colder.

 

 

It's anecdotal local climo that the sleet/snow line will establish roughly from the NW corner of Henry County to the SW corner.

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it's further south with the primary low at 15

The surface low is near San Antonio at this time for what it's worth. Still digging ESE and may pass over/near Metro Houston midday into the afternoon hours.

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warm nose much less pronounced with the low further south at 27.. so far.  Transfer needs to happen fast to keep it hat way.

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BOOM! Hour 27 heavy snow Triangle to Charlotte north and west!

I assume upstate SC and NE Georgia north of I-85 are snow then also. This is sounding like it's turning into a I-85/I-40 special.

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I assume upstate SC and NE Georgia north of I-85 are snow then also. This is sounding like it's turning into a I-85/I-40 special.

 

To my eyes, looks like rain to FZRA around hour 27, transitioning to sleet around HR 30 for the 85 corridor. 

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To my eyes, looks like rain to FZRA around hour 27, transitioning to sleet around HR 30 for the 85 corridor.

Oh, well that's a bummer. Seems like a lot would have to happen for this area to be snow instead of IP and ZR.

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