Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion

[forkyfork]

How the heck are there two 1998 analogs there? That was one of the crappiest winters ever.

we had several strong nor'easters but there wasn't enough cold air around

[SnowGoose69]

03-03-94 is odd, that was an inland runner that went up the Apps like March 08 I think

[nyblizz44]

this is one of the most impressive nor'easter wind forecasts i've seen

Would that contitute a severe blizzard? ( not certain if there a specific catagory metreologically above Blizzard warning per se)

[Stormlover74]

03-03-94 is odd, that was an inland runner that went up the Apps like March 08 I think

Had 32" at state college

[Metsfan]

I know it's 4-5 days out, but it's good to have a concern about a dryslot, because once the low becomes vertically stacked south of the metro region, (between 126-132 hours on this run) you can see on twisterdata that the 700 mb vertical velocities virtually cease once the dry air starts to take effect particually for Long Island, and SNE New England decreasing the intensity of the snowfall rates.  

[PB GFI]

I know it's 4-5 days out, but it's good to have a concern about a dryslot, because once the low becomes vertically stacked south of the metro region, (between 126-132 hours on this run) you can see on twisterdata that the 700 mb vertical velocities virtually cease once the dry air starts to take effect particually for Long Island, and SNE New England decreasing the intensity of the snowfall rates.  

 

Agree 

With all that lift to our west as currently modeled  , the air has to sink somewhere . 

Lucky that convection forecast will get sorted the day before . But someone will be under light snow for several hours while it is ripping to their W 

[Allsnow]

I know it's 4-5 days out, but it's good to have a concern about a dryslot, because once the low becomes vertically stacked south of the metro region, (between 126-132 hours on this run) you can see on twisterdata that the 700 mb vertical velocities virtually cease once the dry air starts to take effect particually for Long Island, and SNE New England decreasing the intensity of the snowfall rates.

I think sne New England should be very worried about qpf and dry slot being that the low is maturing and occluding so far to there south.

[hooralph]

List of analogs

The most prolific NE blizzards are here.

Hmm... How about those 1998 analogs? What storms were those? Nothing memorable from a KU standpoint. Inland runners?

[Rjay]

...

[IsentropicLift]

On the other hand if it occluded 6-12 hours later the heaviest snows would be further NE but you'd have more mixing issues I'd think.

[Rjay]

Hmm... How about those 1998 analogs? What storms were those? Nothing memorable from a KU standpoint. Inland runners?

Warm, strong noreasters.

[+SN21]

Warm SSTs off the coast, think this will bomb out sooner and cause huge deformation bands ala Feb 06'

[F5TornadoF5]

Majority of members look good minus one ots and one inland.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

We should stop looking at snow maps, and start looking at liquid Eq., with the evolution of this storm, snow growth will be optimized and ratios will most def exceed the 10:1 and even the 12:1 maps

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Did the euro para come out yet

[LIsnowBubble]

We should stop looking at snow maps, and start looking at liquid Eq., with the evolution of this storm, snow growth will be optimized and ratios will most def exceed the 10:1 and even the 12:1 maps

... we are still 4 days away. By Thursday this could be a bee line off Virginia capes ots or making a run over NE NJ....

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

... we are still 4 days away. By Thursday this could be a bee line off Virginia capes ots or making a run over NE NJ....

Possible yes... Likely no, if this was a 1 or even 2 model storm to this point, I'd say yes... Model concensus is overwhelming, the pattern is ripe, all the ingredients are there in terms of High pressure weakening and a closed of low... No reason at this point IMO to think this will go OTS.. Not saying it isn't possible, but there isn't any evidence to support that solution

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I would put the chances of 6"+ in NYC at 80%

Getting in to HEC territory up here is a tricky for obvious reasons. I think seeing 2'+ somewhere in Virginia is 80% as well

96 is definitely on the table but so is 2/10

[e46and2]

... we are still 4 days away. By Thursday this could be a bee line off Virginia capes ots or making a run over NE NJ....

 

this post contributes nothing and illustrates little to zero synoptic knowledge... in the future try and make better posts.  have some pride.  cliches kill.

[LIsnowBubble]

... odds are good we will see storm conditions ... want to see 500 MB by 0z Weds - 1/20. For me on Long Island a stall g retrograde storm does not get me excited... obviously people west and northwest of me see that differently. My best guess is this come off Virgina/Delaware boarder and runs the 70/40... not a quick mover.. so sleet may mix in coastal region. That said... if it ran over city or ots off Virginia, would not be surprised either. I mean that is a cone of 150 To 200 mile wide cone... with huge ramifications. That is also a strong high NNE of us... not so easy to budge to the extent some models show Albany getting 15"+... So many variables to take shape... and usually the real deal starts to show its hand... hands .. 48 hrs before game time.

Possible yes... Likely no, if this was a 1 or even 2 model storm to this point, I'd say yes... Model concensus is overwhelming, the pattern is ripe, all the ingredients are there in terms of High pressure weakening and a closed of low... No reason at this point IMO to think this will go OTS.. Not saying it isn't possible, but there isn't any evidence to support that solution

[RU848789]

Possible yes... Likely no, if this was a 1 or even 2 model storm to this point, I'd say yes... Model concensus is overwhelming, the pattern is ripe, all the ingredients are there in terms of High pressure weakening and a closed of low... No reason at this point IMO to think this will go OTS.. Not saying it isn't possible, but there isn't any evidence to support that solution

 

Model consensus certainly would seem to make a major shift in storm evolution less likely, although it's always possible that some of the key initial conditions, which are critical to model accuracy (and whose errors propagate through every forward time increment in the models), are either inaccurate or were poorly sampled - and since these ICs are presumably all identically fed into every model, one could imagine all the models see the same resulting error.  Unlikely, but possible.  

[weatherpruf]

Model consensus certainly would seem to make a major shift in storm evolution less likely, although it's always possible that some of the key initial conditions, which are critical to model accuracy (and whose errors propagate through every forward time increment in the models), are either inaccurate or were poorly sampled - and since these ICs are presumably all identically fed into every model, one could imagine all the models see the same resulting error.  Unlikely, but possible.  

Models were pretty darn good with Sandy IIRC, looks like we get a good storm but southwest and west get the brunt, lots can change but the gen public is starting to notice

[RU4Real]

Model consensus certainly would seem to make a major shift in storm evolution less likely, although it's always possible that some of the key initial conditions, which are critical to model accuracy (and whose errors propagate through every forward time increment in the models), are either inaccurate or were poorly sampled - and since these ICs are presumably all identically fed into every model, one could imagine all the models see the same resulting error.  Unlikely, but possible.  

 

Don't the initialization conditions change with successive runs?

[jm1220]

Until all the pieces are onshore tomorrow (I believe), it's hard to get too excited. The potential's definitely there but a scenario like this is definitely fragile. Models are definitely showing what's possible though with this pattern. 

[jm1220]

Models were pretty darn good with Sandy IIRC, looks like we get a good storm but southwest and west get the brunt, lots can change but the gen public is starting to notice

The Euro by far was the first model to catch on. Others such as the GFS were too far east until maybe 2 days before Sandy hit. 

[Allsnow]

Models were pretty darn good with Sandy IIRC, looks like we get a good storm but southwest and west get the brunt, lots can change but the gen public is starting to notice

Social media and Twitter make them notice

[jan17]

Ecmwf eps low location

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Bernie Rayno with another great video and why he didn't buy the European solution

http://videowall.accuweather.com/?utm_source=mobileaccuweather&utm_medium=mobileaccuweather&utm_campaign=button

[Jason WX]

Could be some bad flooding in NJ with a full moon and Near hurricane force winds.

[snowman19]

Did the euro para come out yet

I read a tweet that it did and was another miss to the south. Maybe someone can confirm? If it was indeed another total miss, I'd say it's an extreme outlier right now based on 12z and 18z today