Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Good call young man looking better here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You know who will do really well is the Poconos and lower Catskils. Has a nice look of 4-7 inches there as they will be almost all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 32/29 here atm. I assume some light glazing tonight and we'll see what the heavier precip does later on. I'm optimistically planning on at least a period of snow, ground whitening etc. Tip's plastering scenario extending into interior MA will keep me tuned in. Looking forward to seeing how his intensifies and final track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 warn.jpg I'm looking at several parameters... 1. not enough antecedent llv gradient to begin removing cold/evaporative cooling(ed) ... air mass that will condition colder upon the commencement of latter. 2. dps in this region are 20 to 25 ... relating to 1. 3. what llv gradient there is, will turn N and intensify draining as fairly rapidly deepening low pressure approaches from the south ...before ultimately missing E of eastern zones means zippo ability to scour out what is probably a poorly resolved lowest thickness interval CAD. If the low went west and plowed up over the Berks...no problem! But given multi-guidance array of a track ideally situated SE, given these antecedent conditions i just don't see this going anywhere but down and frozen. 4. this/that is augmented by the fact that every sigma level between 980 and 800 is progressively colder, with in particular the most recent run of the NAM showing the 900 mb level temp oover BOS is only +1 C!!! as the storm commences. That +5 at the sfc when cat's paws get under way is going to get obliterated. 5. typical rule of thumb... for regions east of ALB and west of BOS ... take (ALB+BOS)QPF/2 ... if using the NAM that should price out to about .9" liq equiv around Orange Ma, with more going east. 6. 24 hour leads on the NAM are not horrible; in fact, though even at this time range the NAM can run into problems, there are two sub-interests for me: a, it tends to markedly improve from 24 inward b, i saw the 12z Euro for 12z and it had the snow look on the synoptic charts all the way down to n ct. usually when the NAM and Euro jump in the sack together ur safe. We'll see how it all works out... but that's not Foxboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Tip is CC too warm to turn to snow? yeah... unfortunately that looks to be the case. it's really tough to keep cc snow even in great set ups. it can and does from time to time. the best way to do s down there, particularly over the arm, is to have a fresh -2 SD or lower air mass available to intense cyclone moving far enough SE to cirrus Will to Ray while it is a whiteout on the arm. that actually happened a lot in the late 1980s...at least 3 times that i recall. i also remember a couple between 2000 and 2010. but most of the time, sticking out into the ocean like that... that's going to be trouble for not going to rain. even in Feb 1978 ..the big historic deal... Chatham went to rain for time I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z GFS back to being well SE...weak sauce. That model has flip-flopped almost non-stop for the past 2 days. That was the GFS mantra last year (after the Jan blizzard), gradual increase in qpf 2-4 days before the event then chop it in half during the final run-up. GYX map now has nearly all its CWA in the 4-6" blob, as colder air and lesser precip do their dance. Have not had one of those -SN, 2" in18 hr events yet this season. With 10" at the stake, no complaints here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 lol no love for GC.....temp and qpf or just temps? lol 31.6 ? His map included much of Franklin co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Even Kevin has a shot of ending as snow if Nam is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I seriously may have picked the worst place to move to in Maine, Portland, lol. It's a beautiful little city on the Atlantic but man the mixing situations are constant so far. I guess this is what I get, for wanting to live on the ocean, lol. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk There certainly some far better weenie spots up here to live if snow is your thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 but that's not Foxboro I could definitely put a slice of uncertainty se over that region, though... This storm is tightly wound as it is passing, the wind may go super geostrophic when the low makes it's closest pass - that's code for blowing more normal or straight across the isobars. probably ..oh, 2/3rds of the way through, there is a collapse se of transition... this is a fast ordeal. stars may be out by the end of Pats game, where the beginning of it is real dicey, while at noon folks are wondering if a f-ball game coulld even be played... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Even Kevin has a shot of ending as snow if Nam is right. Thanks for the last sip of backwash beer in the bottle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Tippy I outlined the BVY-MHT-FIT-ORH corridor As one to watch. Has that sneaky paste look. yeah, sorry... i'm stealing moments away from work, dropping by with occasional excitement (ya, i like this look personally). - not sure whose posted what to be frank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The GFS has not done well at all on these storms this winter when we get inside go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I wish it would slow by 5 hrs and just dump in Foxboro. I just want to hear the BBchek rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You were right about a NNE winter back in Oct. Ha, hahaha. Hahahaha. You're a funny dude. On pace for futility records through January 15th... I hope that isn't your version of a "NNE winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ha, hahaha. Hahahaha. You're a funny dude. On pace for futility records through January 15th... I hope that isn't your version of a "NNE winter." Northern half of Maine doing well. The rest of us? A steaming pile of meh so far (but improving for some) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Northern half of Maine doing well. The rest of us? A steaming pile of meh so far (but improving for some)Although I get the logic, most crappy winters are said to be "NNE winters"...like 2011-2012 has been called that before too. Mostly because it's really crappy everywhere but the few marginal events favor NNE. 2011-2012 is my lowest snow season (though still 75" more than this year, so we have some work to do), but it still snowed at least some, so it's a NNE winter. Try telling Killington it's a NNE winter when they've had 18" total at 2,000-4,000ft from October/November/December/January 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Thanks for the last sip of backwash beer in the bottle Let her go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z RGEM by p-type: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z RGEM by p-type: image.png Every run gets snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Every run gets snowier. Still sucks down here, but it's getting closer. Still think 900-925 is going to be too much to overcome in SNE maybe until the end...but perhaps a miracle can happen. I'd want to see every model tick about 0.5-1.0C colder at 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Every run gets snowier. I guess I haven't been paying attention...I thought you looked to jackpot the whole time, you to Jeff lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I guess I haven't been paying attention...I thought you looked to jackpot the whole time, you to Jeff lol. RGEM had been kind of a torch in the mid-levels around dendrite....but it's been cooling as we get closer. It has been cold at the sfc though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ha, hahaha. Hahahaha. You're a funny dude. On pace for futility records through January 15th... I hope that isn't your version of a "NNE winter." it snows there almost everyday now and will continue to do until next weekend. I don't feel badly for you anymore now that Dec is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Still sucks down here, but it's getting closer. Still think 900-925 is going to be too much to overcome in SNE maybe until the end...but perhaps a miracle can happen. I'd want to see every model tick about 0.5-1.0C colder at 00z tonight. So do you not align your thoughts with Tip's assessment he outlined earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 So do you not align your thoughts with Tip's assessment he outlined earlier? I certainly think the colder solution could verify with several inches of heavy wet snow in the ORH hills and monads...but I'm leaning marginally away from that at the moment. I'm like 60/40 against right now. I think 925mb layer or thereabouts is going to be just a pinch too warm...and there's also the issue of absolutely needing that insane 50+ microbars of lift...no guarantee we get that. But I'm not closed off to the idea that there will be a snowier surprise...I may change my thoughts tonight as more real time data comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I certainly think the colder solution could verify with several inches of heavy wet snow in the ORH hills and monads...but I'm leaning marginally away from that at the moment. I'm like 60/40 against right now. I think 925mb layer or thereabouts is going to be just a pinch too warm...and there's also the issue of absolutely needing that insane 50+ microbars of lift...no guarantee we get that. But I'm not closed off to the idea that there will be a snowier surprise...I may change my thoughts tonight as more real time data comes in. You were tracking earlier today how verifications were about 1-2 colder than modeled upstream..was that still the case or did it level off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 it snows there almost everyday now and will continue to do until next weekend. I don't feel badly for you anymore now that Dec is over Ok so you aren't basing it on anything against climo but just comparing everyone equally as to whether snow falls or not. It is possible for it to snow and still be in the basement of seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 We'll see Brad Field @BradNBCCT rain developing around midnight, over prior to noon...some snow may mix in in the northern hills... #FirstAlertCT 1 retweet2 likes More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You were tracking earlier today how verifications were about 1-2 colder than modeled upstream..was that still the case or did it level off? I just checked and the 18z NAM and 18z RAP...looks like they are running about 2C too warm over SNE at 925mb...closer to 1C down on the south coast and they are pretty on target over LI. SO yeah, they are still running too warm...but we'll see if that changes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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