SnowMan Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Based on the trending, I think there will be some surprises with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This should comfort Lava Rock StormTotalSnowWeb011616.png My max potential on the previous maps was only 3". Now my likely is 4-6"...I'm not really feeling these min/likely/max maps so far...no offense to our NWS members here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 My max potential on the previous maps was only 3". Now my likely is 4-6"... I'm not really feeling these min/likely/max maps so far...no offense to our NWS members here. It does not make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 My max potential on the previous maps was only 3". Now my likely is 4-6"... I'm not really feeling these min/likely/max maps so far...no offense to our NWS members here. I've argued this for 2 winters now. The public doesn't understand probabilities, and they don't make sense. No-one cares about percentages Issue a range and you're either right or wrong come verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This should comfort Lava Rock StormTotalSnowWeb011616.png Comforts me as well ... a couple hours ago I told a buddy in Topsham that I figured 4-6 for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Comforts me as well ... a couple hours ago I told a buddy in Topsham that I figured 4-6 for him. Good call young man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I seriously may have picked the worst place to move to in Maine, Portland, lol. It's a beautiful little city on the Atlantic but man the mixing situations are constant so far. I guess this is what I get, for wanting to live on the ocean, lol. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I seriously may have picked the worst place to move to in Maine, Portland, lol. It's a beautiful little city on the Atlantic but man the mixing situations are constant so far. I guess this is what I get, for wanting to live on the ocean, lol. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Don't worry, Portland does ok, just ask any of the residents about the past few years. Just hasn't worked out yet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looking like a major ice storm in my neck of the woods. EC going with fzra warnings and then 4" of snow on top. Oh and wind to top it off. Should be a fun. Looking better for you guys especially the Maine peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I've argued this for 2 winters now. The public doesn't understand probabilities, and they don't make sense. No-one cares about percentages Issue a range and you're either right or wrong come verification. He's arguing the logic on how the min/max/likely do not really line up and appear inconsistent. So far, those maps have been messy and inconsistent, so they aren't adding much. The probabilities when presented logically are good tools to use because weenies like you don't pay attention to the bottom part of a range...4-8" means 8" to weenies. Ranges are good, but only if they are actually taken to heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Box max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This looks nice for lakes region and Maine. Good man snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This looks nice for lakes region and Maine. Good man snow.You were right about a NNE winter back in Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Box max. More likely this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 ...4-8" means 8 - 50" to weenies. mm hm anyway, the 18z NAM crushes N ORH and western Middlesex Cos when analyzing the FRH grid (classically referred to the FOUS) BOS: 18024989566 05913 900332 46050198 24123968126 -2108 923124 40010098 - See more at: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/fous/FOUS61#sthash.1lfguear.dpuf That's over Logan - imagine even half that QPF total out around FIT-ORH axis, with about half that T1 temperature of +5 followed by +1, and you are getting absolutely hammered given the fact that there is no intervening layer of warmth above that -2 C at 800 mb levels. That's a wow run. a big juicy kielbasa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 He's arguing the logic on how the min/max/likely do not really line up and appear inconsistent. So far, those maps have been messy and inconsistent, so they aren't adding much. The probabilities when presented logically are good tools to use because weenies like you don't pay attention to the bottom part of a range...4-8" means 8" to weenies. Ranges are good, but only if they are actually taken to heart. Yeah....I'm bringing up more the execution of the product rather than the product itself. If my likely this afternoon is 4-6" you would think my max potential this morning should've at least been 4-6"...not 2-3".I guess you could argue those maps are the 10th and 90th percentiles and that this is the 95th percentile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Down to 31.9. Getting prepped for a trace of glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM flips many over to a thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM flips many over to a thump thats an awesome map, if only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 thats an awesome map, if only. Not for qpf-starved western NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z GFS back to being well SE...weak sauce. That model has flip-flopped almost non-stop for the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Down to 31.9. Getting prepped for a trace of glaze.31.8FWe scared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm looking at several parameters... 1. not enough antecedent llv gradient to begin removing cold/evaporative cooling(ed) ... air mass that will condition colder upon the commencement of latter. 2. dps in this region are 20 to 25 ... relating to 1. 3. what llv gradient there is, will turn N and intensify draining as fairly rapidly deepening low pressure approaches from the south ...before ultimately missing E of eastern zones means zippo ability to scour out what is probably a poorly resolved lowest thickness interval CAD. If the low went west and plowed up over the Berks...no problem! But given multi-guidance array of a track ideally situated SE, given these antecedent conditions i just don't see this going anywhere but down and frozen. 4. this/that is augmented by the fact that every sigma level between 980 and 800 is progressively colder, with in particular the most recent run of the NAM showing the 900 mb level temp oover BOS is only +1 C!!! as the storm commences. That +5 at the sfc when cat's paws get under way is going to get obliterated. 5. typical rule of thumb... for regions east of ALB and west of BOS ... take (ALB+BOS)QPF/2 ... if using the NAM that should price out to about .9" liq equiv around Orange Ma, with more going east. 6. 24 hour leads on the NAM are not horrible; in fact, though even at this time range the NAM can run into problems, there are two sub-interests for me: a, it tends to markedly improve from 24 inward b, i saw the 12z Euro for 12z and it had the snow look on the synoptic charts all the way down to n ct. usually when the NAM and Euro jump in the sack together ur safe. We'll see how it all works out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z GFS back to being well SE...weak sauce. That model has flip-flopped almost non-stop for the past 2 days. Like a monkfish on amarshall's boat. #saveahorse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z GFS back to being well SE...weak sauce. That model has flip-flopped almost non-stop for the past 2 days.look at the convective feedbacks, the model cant handle this evolution. Feel like I am back in 2001, Euro/NAM EE weekend. All we need is a Swartz seven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Tip is CC too warm to turn to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 31.8F We scared lol warn.jpg I'm looking at several parameters... 1. not enough antecedent llv gradient to begin removing cold/evaporative cooling(ed) ... air mass that will condition colder upon the commencement of latter. 2. dps in this region are 20 to 25 ... relating to 1. 3. what llv gradient there is, will turn N and intensify draining as fairly rapidly deepening low pressure approaches from the south ...before ultimately missing E of eastern zones means zippo ability to scour out what is probably a poorly resolved lowest thickness interval CAD. If the low went west and plowed up over the Berks...no problem! But given multi-guidance array of a track ideally situated SE, given these antecedent conditions i just don't see this going anywhere but down and frozen. 4. this/that is augmented by the fact that every sigma level between 980 and 800 is progressively colder, with in particular the most recent run of the NAM showing the 900 mb level temp oover BOS is only +1 C!!! as the storm commences. That +5 at the sfc when cat's paws get under way is going to get obliterated. 5. typical rule of thumb... for regions east of ALB and west of BOS ... take (ALB+BOS)QPF/2 ... if using the NAM that should price out to about .9" liq equiv around Orange Ma, with more going east. 6. 24 hour leads on the NAM are not horrible; in fact, though even at this time range the NAM can run into problems, there are two sub-interests for me: a, it tends to markedly improve from 24 inward b, i saw the 12z Euro for 12z and it had the snow look on the synoptic charts all the way down to n ct. usually when the NAM and Euro jump in the sack together ur safe. We'll see how it all works out... no love for GC.....temp and qpf or just temps? Like a monkfish on amarshall's boat. #saveahorse lol 31.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Tippy I outlined the BVY-MHT-FIT-ORH corridor As one to watch. Has that sneaky paste look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I seriously may have picked the worst place to move to in Maine, Portland, lol. It's a beautiful little city on the Atlantic but man the mixing situations are constant so far. I guess this is what I get, for wanting to live on the ocean, lol. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk It's a good spot most years. If it makes you feel any better this winter sucks here in Concord NH area too and even Killington was only up to 18" as of a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 warn.jpg I'm looking at several parameters... 1. not enough antecedent llv gradient to begin removing cold/evaporative cooling(ed) ... air mass that will condition colder upon the commencement of latter. 2. dps in this region are 20 to 25 ... relating to 1. 3. what llv gradient there is, will turn N and intensify draining as fairly rapidly deepening low pressure approaches from the south ...before ultimately missing E of eastern zones means zippo ability to scour out what is probably a poorly resolved lowest thickness interval CAD. If the low went west and plowed up over the Berks...no problem! But given multi-guidance array of a track ideally situated SE, given these antecedent conditions i just don't see this going anywhere but down and frozen. 4. this/that is augmented by the fact that every sigma level between 980 and 800 is progressively colder, with in particular the most recent run of the NAM showing the 900 mb level temp oover BOS is only +1 C!!! as the storm commences. That +5 at the sfc when cat's paws get under way is going to get obliterated. 5. typical rule of thumb... for regions east of ALB and west of BOS ... take (ALB+BOS)QPF/2 ... if using the NAM that should price out to about .9" liq equiv around Orange Ma, with more going east. 6. 24 hour leads on the NAM are not horrible; in fact, though even at this time range the NAM can run into problems, there are two sub-interests for me: a, it tends to markedly improve from 24 inward b, i saw the 12z Euro for 12z and it had the snow look on the synoptic charts all the way down to n ct. usually when the NAM and Euro jump in the sack together ur safe. We'll see how it all works out... I would extend that line to cover NW CT up to MPM area. And probably move it north of my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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