CT Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Ugh - and more that I can even share on here to be honest. Anyway - back to January. Let's try an lock in 1/10 or so because I don't know if I can take another month of boredom. And people in authority were giving you a hard time for giving an honest scientific argument for the storm going out to sea. It was really disgraceful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 For a while we had basically 2 clusters... one OTS and one into SC/NC. Few, if any, members had the storm hitting Long Island. However when you split the difference and take the mean of those 2 clusters you get a track down in the middle. In that case the mean is the least likely scenario. Right, thats what I meant. A couple members skewed the mean into LI but no members actually placed it in LI.Interesting scenario to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 10-20 region wide Followed by the Cleveland super-bomb a week later, blizzard of 78 a week after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 87 hours. What was only 1 run? I was just saying how beings able to use the clustering of individual members can tell you so much more than just looking at the mean. True in the short range and the long range.agree, Joaquin mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yeah no I meant 78 - my badbeen on the analog list for 4 days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Followed by the Cleveland super-bomb a week later, blizzard of 78 a week after that.he originally said 77 which had a great cold storm, same week as the Epic Buffalo Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 There is however a huge difference between a tropical center mean at day 8 and a winter MSLP mean. Clusters are the way to go but I have seen Mets here quote Euro mean centers in.winter many many times. It has use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 There is however a huge difference between a tropical center mean at day 8 and a winter MSLP mean. Clusters are the way to go but I have seen Mets here quote Euro mean centers in.winter many many times. It has use. Well winter time synoptics tend to be better modeled in the first place. Not lead pipe locks, but better than warm season or tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Well winter time synoptics tend to be better modeled in the first place. Not lead pipe locks, but better than warm season or tropical.yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 been on the analog list for 4 days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Your posts are just a bad as your WOTY posts. You are constantly looking to point out anything that might be bad. You have become Forky. You are not really expressing real ideas half the time btw. Your posts are even less mature actually. You are like Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde, hopping from one end of the continuum to the other like a drunken rabbit alternating between ecstasy and prozac. Wow, I think you've just about summed that up...completely!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Good job mahk_webstah, someone needs to take him down a notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 NAM and models might be showing more ridging to the east of the January 3-4th shortwave from the arctic jet. If we can get this shortwave to dig more out of Manitoba then we will be golden for a redeveloper, but I just don't think the flow will buckle over New England enough to allow this to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Good job mahk_webstah, someone needs to take him down a notch. No I would never want to do that. He's a great contributor and I'm sure a nice guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 been on the analog list for 4 days now We saw that pattern break after that event, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 No I would never want to do that. He's a great contributor and I'm sure a nice guy. So even great posters need to be brought down, he is all over the place back and forth, you would do the same to me if I was too optimistic about something. I mean I even get it from where it doesn't need to come from. So you tell me if he deserves it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 This is the 18z GFS at hour 90, see the energy near Manitoba, more so over northern Ontario, Canada province, it is more strung out over the region than solidified like the 00z NAM at hour 84 below: 00z NAM at hour 84, see the energy closer to Manitoba province of Canada, this energy is more consolidated over space that leads to a better energetic burst as it reaches the East Coast of New England, if the energy digs further south, than the clipper could turn into a redeveloper that develops much closer to ACK than 300+ miles east of CHH. We shall see, but even the EURO is more lopsided with the energy. these runs should get better in determining how consolidated the energy can be and if the NAM is onto something or just plain bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The point has been made. He needs to research things better sometimes instead of just posting on emotions or sharing Twitter hype. He's not a dumb guy and does post some decent stuff but he reverts back to bad patterns. 10 people jumping on him is not necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm sorry for jumping on a fellow poster. That was not out of kindness but anger. I'm sorry Kevin. Anyways, we should be talking about a potential redeveloper if the NAM is right, again NAM continues to be outside of range fully so we can't see if it will be favorable later on for that energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 00z GFS at hour 72, looks like there is no change between 12z and 00z runs with the energy situated over Ontario compared to the NAM which is over Manitoba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The one thing that worries me is the potential for more IO forcing to return later in the month, which when you combine the general PAC Jet activity, means that the ridging in the west coast could take a beating. Of course, that doesn't take away from the potential great pattern starting around Jan 10th, but it would put into question its duration. Just some food for thought. I have contemplated that possibility as well, but I think if we do see a resurgence of -VP, it'll likely be fairly transient [in the upcoming 2 month period]. Interestingly enough, upon examining the IO forcing progression of a few of my top analog years, there was a propensity for enhanced IO forcing during the month of December. This generally transitioned into a more suppressive regime for Jan/Feb. December 1965/1957: December 1986 had fairly active IO convection as well. VP anomalies so far this month: Much different regime for January 1966/1958: February maintained the overall suppressive IO (as did with 1987): The CFS forecasts for chi 200hpa haven't been too great so far this year, though it's possible we have a 7-10 day pulse of IO forcing. I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see a reload period. But I strongly doubt a return to the December pattern or even a pattern that favors above / much above temperatures. The current empirical wave propagation suggests a transient IO pulse the last 10 days of the month before a return to conducive forcing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 been on the analog list for 4 days now I saw jan 2001 on there...yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looks like the 1/8-1/9 event is narrowly out to sea this run. We have a nice threat shaping up, as other have pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 been on the analog list for 4 days now Boxaroni on there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Interesting passage by Cohen: typical during El Niño winters, the models predict a strong Jet Stream along the Southern United States. Therefore because the northern or polar Jet Stream does not completely dominate eastern North America, temperatures remain near seasonable over southeastern Canada and the Eastern United States (Figure 6). However with both jet streams active over the United States, the storm track will likely remain active and potential phasing of the two streams may help to fuel storms crisscrossing the United States and could potentially be a snowy pattern for parts of the United States. #stopobsessingoverindividualopruns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Interesting passage by Cohen: typical during El Niño winters, the models predict a strong Jet Stream along the Southern United States. Therefore because the northern or polar Jet Stream does not completely dominate eastern North America, temperatures remain near seasonable over southeastern Canada and the Eastern United States (Figure 6). However with both jet streams active over the United States, the storm track will likely remain active and potential phasing of the two streams may help to fuel storms crisscrossing the United States and could potentially be a snowy pattern for parts of the United States. #stopobsessingoverindividualopruns Considering the pattern flip is over 240 hours away, I'd like it if we stop discussing OP model runs at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looks like the 1/8-1/9 event is narrowly out to sea this run. We have a nice threat shaping up, as other have pointed out. Why are we taking a 10 day threat seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Why are we taking a 10 day threat seriously?WTF are you talking about?If you identify a timeframe for a threat, what is wrong with affirming that notion by seeing SOMETHING consistently modeled? I don't think I was obsessing over anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Because the signal is strong for a potential storm and plus aren't we supposed to talk about storm threats any ways. Perhaps we don't have to wait another 10 days to get snow we have disturbance in the flow on the 2/4 of January, this system is becoming more and more enhanced and perhaps amplified by the EURO and NAM, GFS yet to catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I guess JANUARY weather should not be discussed in the JANUARY thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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