Neblizzard Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ridge Bridge , Euro Ens 11-15 are straight out of Feb 15 ,holy crap man There is pretty remarkable agreement between the ensembles this far out. If they are right winter will come in with a vengeance for many areas east of the Mississippi. I pray it's right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ridge Bridge , Euro Ens 11-15 are straight out of Feb 15 ,holy crap manI don't know who it was or why but I seem to recall someone comparing this Dec to 12/77 or something. I don't see the connection but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Talk is patter breaks down early Feb for a week or 2. The cold again after a week torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Talk is patter breaks down early Feb for a week or 2. The cold again after a week torch Do you mean January? I think it's kind of early to be talking about February. If anything, it looks like Feb cold should be relatively locked down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Do you mean January? I think it's kind of early to be talking about February. If anything, it looks like Feb cold should be relatively locked down. The talk is since it came in early..it breaks a bit early then a 2nd reload after a break. Not saying that idea is right since no-one caught the 3 week early change.but it's just the talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The talk is since it came in early..it breaks a bit early then a 2nd reload after a break. Not saying that idea is right since no-one caught the 3 week early change.but it's just the talkprobably your same source who torched Jan. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Uhm.... did January get "torched" above its predicted 2F-4F AN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The talk is since it came in early..it breaks a bit early then a 2nd reload after a break. Not saying that idea is right since no-one caught the 3 week early change.but it's just the talk It is coming. Your endless torch is over. Be in the moment. Talking about a pattern change in early February? Who the he'll knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 GFS, CMC and EURO are in good agreement since 12z today about a pattern changing cutter/apps runner by day 8-10, perhaps arctic jet connections and STJ connections. Still a lot of time left for more agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 That pattern after day 8 is very conducive to some sort of big storm coming up the coast out of the gulf if the trof can dig enough. The problem is it probably would take a coastal track or close to it based on where that ridge is out west and the trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I'm no longer searching for a seed in a desert, I'm looking forward towards the middle of the month now when the NAO goes neutral and the +PNA rebalances and the -AO reloads a second time.. This reload happens as the PV swings through the province of Labrador, Canada and ridging floats atop the arctic circle over northern Greenland and balances the PV over Hudson Bay, Canada. This again shifts the storm track westward towards the Atlantic Seaboard. However the only caveat is that the arctic disturbance supplying the cold air for the storm system is in northern US great Lakes region and is attached to the PV circulation which means it can only go so far east, until it phases with the STJ disturbance in the southeastern US, this disturbance brings a ton of rain to the East Coast, however phases with the arctic jet and heads into the Maritimes at 950mb as a bomb. Also another storm follows this one and is cold enough to snow, but is too far east and intensifies so fast as it bends the flow near the island of New Foundland, Canada. This is a storm we need to watch, although it is in the fantasy long range of the GFS, we still need to watch these storms unfold on the models as we get closer as the potential wow factor will increase center fold. The closer we get to this pattern the more exciting we will all be, this is looking promising for the SNE coastline and Mid Atlantic states after the 7th of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 CMC is similar to the GFS, I think we trend much colder as NAO goes neutral in this period. So semi ridging over Greenland and Davis Straits will allow the +PNA ridge to push everything southeastward with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Looking at the GFS and EURO 168-240 hour progs at h5, I wonder if we can get a nor'easter instead of the warmth the models show right now, why? We have neutral NAO, -AO and +PNA pattern with a full blown EL Nino depiction in the southwestern US where troughing is placed underneath a +PNA ridge. The pattern should remain favorable for snow, unlike what the models show, a rainstorm which brings back the cold air, I think this rainstorm currently depicted by the models to be a snowstorm instead. -NAO/neutral NAO ridging over Greenland will get stronger and force the PV southwestward instead, allowing one of these disturbances in the PV circulation to phase with a STJ disturbance for our monster nor'easter. That is just what the pattern is showing, I will show you in the next post with a picture of what I see. or actually I will add it to this post. This image below shows the pattern I see days 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 6z GFS is getting more and more interesting for the fourth of January, low develops just off the coast of ME, misses Cape Cod by 100 miles to the northeast, but if that shortwave comes further southwest, it will have a chance to go negatively tilted and we could get a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 After today, no snow except upslope thru day 10. Perhaps Jan 9-10 is our next chance. At least the cold is coming Fri and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I don't know about that. Mostly dry for a week but I think we get a threat mid week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 2010 feb repeat in the same zones would just about finish me off, lets hope for something which gets everyone into the fun.....i worry about suppression some as well....be nice to see something come out of the gulf and move up the coast with 10 to 20 region wide(even though i will get the ten) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 May be quiet for the next 7-10 days, but could be a good cold shot of euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Tough for weenies. From warm and dry to cold and dry . Jan 9-10 is next threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Tough for weenies. From warm and dry to cold and dry . Jan 9-10 is next threat Looks like the fun starts mid January with multiple threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Mini torch next Wednesday or Thursday? Good signal on eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Mini torch next Wednesday or Thursday? Good signal on eps.there's definitely going to be the transition days before we get into a great period. Pop goes the weasel. Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 there's definitely going to be the transition days before we get into a great period. Pop goes the weasel. Oh my Yeah the 8-14 keeps getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yeah the 8-14 keeps getting better.some of these analogs dates are big dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 What happens to the so Cali low? Does it cut up and raise heights in the east for a couple days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 What happens to the so Cali low? Does it cut up and raise heights in the east for a couple days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 AO is freefalling. Euro shows a -NAO at 0z. Good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 With such a fast transition in ano so on a do we not see a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 With such a fast transition in ano so on a do we not see a storm? EPS is signaling 2 storms near mid month. We will see but the pattern going forward will be great for storminess and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 With such a fast transition in ano so on a do we not see a storm? There really isn't a big Archambault signal...NAO stays positive mostly until really late in the period and the PNA rises early on but then stays there. We shift colder in the means with perhaps a relaxation for a day or two around 1/5-1/7...but storminess may be more likely after the first week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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