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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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Neither does anything else at that range.  So how would this be, "a lot better"?

 

I am saying if it showed an actual snow storm here that far out. It's better that it isn't showing that this far out because 99% of the time it doesn't happen. I think it's usually better for the models to pick up things gradually as we get closer.

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I am saying if it showed an actual snow storm here that far out. It's better that it isn't showing that this far out because 99% of the time it doesn't happen. I think it's usually better for the models to pick up things gradually as we get closer.

 OK, Brick.  I think everyone knows that the models tend to do better the closer we get to an event.  I was hoping you had some new methodology that gave deeper insight into long range predictions.

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But some things you don't believe are a lot better than others.  Got it.  You should go into teaching.

 

I should say don't trust it. I think the models can see there is potential there in the long range. So, it's saying there is a possibility that something could happen. But exactly what is not going to get clear until we're at least 5 days out. It is nice to see the potential is there, and now we just have to see if the ingredients come together to actually produce.

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Euro pops a low pressure in the northern GA area at hour 240, probably not a snow track for the Southeast but it's 10 days out so a lot can and will change. You have the GFS with a coastal a little too far offshore and the Euro with a low forming over the mountains.

just saw that too, glad to see the low showing up on the euro and gfs, just need to see them keep it over the next week or so.  

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OK, Brick. I think everyone knows that the models tend to do better the closer we get to an event. I was hoping you had some new methodology that gave deeper insight into long range predictions.

I think his point is simply that if you're in the bullseye long range then there really isn't much that can improve but a lot can go wrong. If you're close but not quite there chances are it could trend in our favor. Even 5 days out being in the bullseye here in the South has a tendency to trend the wrong direction (infamous NW trend).

There is quite the disagreement between the Euro and GFS. The GFS 500mb pattern is much different at hour 240 compared with the Euro. Also the storm track and evolution is different with the Euro going over the Appalachian Mountains. Canadian is closer to a euro solution but also different. Something to watch but the model disagreement tells me a lot of changes, either better or worse, are on the way. At least we have something to keep an eye on :)

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just saw that too, glad to see the low showing up on the euro and gfs, just need to see them keep it over the next week or so.

I think the GFS will trend NW and the Euro may be holding the energy back a little long long. A good middle ground would be my best guess at this time. Take the GFS track and slide it west 150-200 miles and it would be a nice snow for many. The Euro ensemble low plots will be helpful in determining if there is any agreement in track or not. It probably won't work out but at least we have the cold nearby and the moisture, just need the timing.

Fwiw, the Euro taken literally would probably bring snow along and west of the apps as the low deepens but would be more heavy rain anywhere east of there.

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But some things you don't believe are a lot better than others.  Got it.  You should go into teaching.

 

Like Santa Claus.  Way better than the Easter Bunny.  But we don't believe in either of them.

 

Or Star Wars.  Better than Star Trek.  But we don't believe either of those stories either.  (I may have just started a war.)   :bag:

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Just popped up on Twitter...

 

CIPS Analog Guidance @CIPSAnalogs 28m28 minutes ago

First strong signal in the ext analogs this winter of an eastern US “arctic blast” in the Jan 3rd-5th time frame.

CW2LPuKUkAAbFcB.png
CW2LRLCUkAA8Nwz.png

 

Exactly why I made the post I did about the ensembles yesterday for the 10-15 and 11-16 day time frame, that would be the 9-14, 10-15 day time frame today. Analog guidance isn't perfect though but it's good to see.

nBkW7tF.png

 

Clear pattern change evolving but will we cash in and how long will it last? Not long without sustained blocking...as others have said it's likely to warm up/cool down on and off until we get blocking or SSWE.

 

Also a little disclaimer: This isn't saying it's going to be deep cold coming down, more seasonal temps expected.

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Fwiw, the Euro taken literally would probably bring snow along and west of the apps as the low deepens but would be more heavy rain anywhere east of there.

12z Euro cuts the low just before the Apps so that solution would bring a cold rain to most everyone. What it isn't showing (because of it occurring past day 10) would be a decent shot a NWFS here in the Apps after the low passes.

Right now the Euro looks more probable in my opinion because I don't see a strong enough high pressure to the north to funnel down any meaningful cold air. Euro is also showing another LP that moves through NE a day before and that complicates the progression of cold air. Oh well at least we have something to track and who knows, maybe it pans out for us here in WNC. But I am not getting my hopes up on this one.

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I like all the pretty blues! We'll need the changes West and East (with the extended periods of cold in Alaska and Greenland we've had) to get cold to stick around more than a couple days. My guess is we'll see transient shots for awhile then have a better chance at some more extended "cold" as we get further down the road, IF we get the the Pacific to cooperate some.  

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for those of you hoping for Phase 8-1 MJO for Jan....via @forecastguy on twitter:

 

Winters w/ MJO 8-1 in Jan with ENSO >= 1.0

  • 12/05/97-1/13/98
  • 12/17/91-1/25/92
  • 12/24/82-02/01/83

Not a good look (these are temps):

HaCL0sh.png

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