pcbjr Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 And for next Monday... Any way there is a corresponding for 2M or surface temps? Not finding it on Levi's site or elsewhere. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 And for next Monday... Looked at the 12z gfs( haven't looked at the GFS recently ) and it also has a LPS in the same area on the 29th, so 2 models are showing what appears to be a pretty strong low. could be some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Tracking NW of most. Something doesn't look right with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well the models flipping around some especially in the 10-15 day range is a good sign and usually points to a pattern change, or at least that's the way it has been in the past....I still think by Jan 1 we are more in a "normal" winter pattern and that in of itself means chances for snow etc go up....if we can actually get some periods of blockiness then mid Jan into Feb could be good for us. Some -20's in the Dakotas by the end of the latest GFS run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Interesting run of the Euro for sure... 993mb to sub 980mb low...everyone is awake now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 12z Euro clown map had a dusting in WNC around the 29th but it is the clown map. That really isn't what grabbed my attention though. In comparison with the 0z Euro, this run was much less certain with an Ohio Valley tracking LP. The 12z run splits the Apps and give WNC a good NWFS. Statistically speaking, the Ohio Valley track is most probable and is the default track unless something can push it south. Looks like the 12z Euro phases the energy later and therefore the storm blows up over Tennessee instead of TX/OK. Still a long way to go with this one, but I would say it is something to watch over the next few model runs, especially in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Even if it,s not cold enough during the storm, it looks like it has the potential to pull down a good amount of cold air for NWFS. Maybe there's a chance this far out? Who knows , but nice to see potential.Granted even if it's not cold enough, could be a LOT of rain. Now I'm just waiting for one of those outlier runs where it pushes the low into georgia instead of the ohio valley and watch everyone lose it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Head to West Tennessee Image from Wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 It's gonna cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 It's gonna cut.Isn't there a Great Lakes low to stop it!?There will be one when we have a legit threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 FWIW snowfall based on ENSO state for RDU....via @webberweather on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 FWIW snowfall based on ENSO state for RDU....via @webberweather on Twitter. Here's to a strong Nina next winter...Edit: On second thought, maybe not, 2 winters total 60" which skews it and with 1989 your approaching 75" with 3 winters. Super feast and predominately famine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 FWIW snowfall based on ENSO state for RDU....via @webberweather on Twitter. The one on the left is strong La Niña? The sample size is too small to draw too many conclusions, but that's still surprising. There also could be a huge year in a strong La Niña which is skewing the mean higher (as in a right-skewed distribution). It would be interesting to see median snowfall for each ENSO state. Of course, in the SE our snowfall distributions are almost always right-skewed with the mean in some cases significantly higher than the median. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Here's to a strong Nina next winter... The one on the left is strong La Niña? The sample size is too small to draw too many conclusions, but that's still surprising. Maybe not you but I'm having crazy dejavu I think I talked about this with someone last year...La Ninas aren't *usually* good for snow. 99-00 we had 25"ish from the carolina crusher and 1892-93 we had 32", skews the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Maybe not you but I'm having crazy dejavu I think I talked about this with someone last year...La Ninas aren't *usually* good for snow. 99-00 we had 25"ish from the carolina crusher and 1892-93 we had 32", skews the data. Yeah, that'll do it, then. That's always my issue with analogs. The sample sizes are so tiny that it really hampers their predictive value, IMO (not that analogs aren't useful because I believe they are). Right-skewness is almost always an issue for us. A "typical" winter for us has below average snowfall because our median snowfall is lower than our mean snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 FWIW snowfall based on ENSO state for RDU....via @webberweather on Twitter. Got one for MBY? Ha ha and best!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Got one for MBY? Ha ha and best!!!! I don't even have to draw that one up Averages: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 FWIW snowfall based on ENSO state for RDU....via @webberweather on Twitter. Agravating chart...just reminds me RDU has been over 8" once in 11 seasons. Serenity now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Yeah, that'll do it, then. That's always my issue with analogs. The sample sizes are so tiny that it really hampers their predictive value, IMO (not that analogs aren't useful because I believe they are). Right-skewness is almost always an issue for us. A "typical" winter for us has below average snowfall because our median snowfall is lower than our mean snowfall. I hated statistics in undergrad and in grad school (bio statistics and drug literature) you're bringing back nightmares. But I agree. Via @webberweather on twitter: 1886-2015 median=5.9", standard seviation=6.84", avg=7.5" That SD, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Nice wedge portrayed on the 18z GFS... wouldn't take much tweaking for something interesting. If we only had snow pack in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 I don't even have to draw that one up Averages: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shoot, and back to "lurking"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 For CTL folks: (again via @webberweather on Twitter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I hated statistics in undergrad and in grad school (bio statistics and drug literature) you're bringing back nightmares. But I agree. Via @webberweather on twitter: 1886-2015 median=5.9", standard seviation=6.84", avg=7.5" That SD, though. Heh, the standard deviation is off the charts. No wonder predicting seasonal snowfall in our areas is a crapshoot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 That's some extremely high heights showing up on the GFS for next week and a little later. 588dm over us and 594dm off the coast,that's like having a Bermuda high or a death ridge parked over you in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Wonder if the warm gulf/east-Atlantic will be taken advantage of Jan-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Nice wedge portrayed on the 18z GFS... wouldn't take much tweaking for something interesting. If we only had snow pack in the NE. Add this to the list of winter quotes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Add this to the list of winter quotes! If we could just move the continent to the west a bit, we'd be golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 For CTL folks: (again via @webberweather on Twitter) Yup, we probably do better in a nino due to being a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Wonder if the warm gulf/east-Atlantic will be taken advantage of Jan-March. It's really hard to see our way out of this and into a good winter pattern. I just don't see how it can be done without -NAO even with an improved PAC...we shall see...if by XMas there is no improvement in the long range we are going to be in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 It's really hard to see our way out of this and into a good winter pattern. I just don't see how it can be done without -NAO even with an improved PAC...we shall see...if by XMas there is no improvement in the long range we are going to be in trouble Warm waters off the NC coast can often favor baroclinic forcing which in turn can help form strong coastal storms off our coast. The negative is it also can allow those strong storms to drag warmer air further inland as well. I think that was what NCrain was alluding to. Also, long range modeling is certainly making small improvements. CFS beginning January 3-8th is cooler, EPS finally shows weak PNA ridging and a weak trough over the central US. These are good trends in the right direction, I like what I see for the early January pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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