HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 This reminds me of a couple of adages: "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once and a while" and "A broken clock is right twice every day" Perhaps this one too: "Close, but no cigar" Well. There is always that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Seems like next Wed is next day of 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 70.4/56 at the Pit. Impressive for the pit in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Impressive for the pit in November.impressive in July! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Only in a Nino Heater could we set record high dews for Nov. We had record high humidity today. The dew point reached at least 62 degrees at Windsor Locks. The previous record was 61 degrees, set on November 6th in 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Only in a Nino Heater could we set record high dews for Nov. We had record high humidity today. The dew point reached at least 62 degrees at Windsor Locks. The previous record was 61 degrees, set on November 6th in 1988. Nov 88 was nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Nov 88 was nina Wasn't the early part of that winter very warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Wasn't the early part of that winter very warm? It was terrible as a whole. Less than 30" of snow in Worcester. (28.1 to be exact). December, February, and March were essentially normal temps--just no snow to speak of (maximum depth was 5 inches in Feb). January was 5F above normal. A true "ratter" snow-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 It was terrible as a whole. Less than 30" of snow in Worcester. (28.1 to be exact). December, February, and March were essentially normal temps--just no snow to speak of (maximum depth was 5 inches in Feb). January was 5F above normal. A true "ratter" snow-wise. Thank god it was a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Just one model run out to 384, but its fairly amazing how consistent the GFS is at 6z in showing the initial conditions being almost identical to the 384 panel. Really no change over 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 It is interesting that the Euro ensemble and now this 12z GFSop do have a -NAO ridge into the Davis Straits amid a pattern not necessarily conducive for it. Seems like it forms in a Rex block fashion by an Upper level ridge over an Upper level trough. This ridge basically cutoffs off in the Davis Straits. It doesn't mean much now, but I cant recall seeing that once last winter or even the winter before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 How's the pattern looking in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 How's the pattern looking in the long range? We start weakening the big vortex in AK, but the flow still is Pacific dominated, albeit weaker through day 15. If the block in the Davis Straits holds, could be cooler than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 It was terrible as a whole. Less than 30" of snow in Worcester. (28.1 to be exact). December, February, and March were essentially normal temps--just no snow to speak of (maximum depth was 5 inches in Feb). January was 5F above normal. A true "ratter" snow-wise. I was in Los Angeles and I recall the chilliest winter of my 15 years. I had to work up in Santa Barbara for a couple of days in early February and there were patches of ice on the road pre dawn. The next day in Santa Barbara I had to do an 11 miler before work as I was training for a May marathon. It was in the 20s that morning in Santa Barbara. The next night, back in Los Angeles, there was a snow event in the San Fernando valley which is where millions live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 We start weakening the big vortex in AK, but the flow still is Pacific dominated, albeit weaker through day 15. If the block in the Davis Straits holds, could be cooler than shown. As long as we have the -pna and Vortex In that position I don't see much change until those two things change..looks like the 12z gfs yesterday was rushing things. Will and you have touched on that, looking at the weeklies the change would be more towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 As long as we have the -pna and Vortex In that position I don't see much change until those two things change..looks like the 12z gfs yesterday was rushing things. Will and you have touched on that, looking at the weeklies the change would be more towards the end of the month. Yeah the pattern turns into something that offers a few storms and shots of cold, but I wouldn't call it a pattern of persistent cold. Heights stay very low near the N Pole and into the Bering Sea which is the opposite if you want persistent cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Yeah the pattern turns into something that offers a few storms and shots of cold, but I wouldn't call it a pattern of persistent cold. Heights stay very low near the N Pole and into the Bering Sea which is the opposite if you want persistent cold. -EPO signal much weaker in LR on last two euro ensemble runs. I figured that would probably happen. Hopefully we see it come back. Getting that at the end of the month would be great or early December. I'll say that the negative NAO showing up is actually a real positive sign. To see any type of blocking up there is good. Even if it's too early to produce any snow events with a cruddy N PAC. But two previous potent Ninos used NAO blocking to overcome crappy pacific patterns ('65-'66 and '57-'58) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 -EPO signal much weaker in LR on last two euro ensemble runs. I figured that would probably happen. Hopefully we see it come back. Getting that at the end of the month would be great or early December. I'll say that the negative NAO showing up is actually a real positive sign. To see any type of blocking up there is good. Even if it's too early to produce any snow events with a cruddy N PAC. But two previous potent Ninos used NAO blocking to overcome crappy pacific patterns ('65-'66 and '57-'58) I notice on today's GEFS at the end f the run the vortex in AK does weaken but the depth moves towards the pole. If we could get some Asian heights up that could set up some cross polar flow. You can see it trying so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 -EPO signal much weaker in LR on last two euro ensemble runs. I figured that would probably happen. Hopefully we see it come back. Getting that at the end of the month would be great or early December. I'll say that the negative NAO showing up is actually a real positive sign. To see any type of blocking up there is good. Even if it's too early to produce any snow events with a cruddy N PAC. But two previous potent Ninos used NAO blocking to overcome crappy pacific patterns ('65-'66 and '57-'58) I can´t see much of a -EPO until that black hole weakens or moves. At least the flow isn't a total firehose at 500mb off the PAC, but no real cold into Canada quite yet with the deathstar bottling it up for now. I was mildy intrigued about that -NAO too. It wasn't just a flash in the pan either like we would see from a storm blowing up near Labrador. That was legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 And by the way, euro has a coastal this week. Winter is saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 -EPO signal much weaker in LR on last two euro ensemble runs. I figured that would probably happen. Hopefully we see it come back. Getting that at the end of the month would be great or early December. I'll say that the negative NAO showing up is actually a real positive sign. To see any type of blocking up there is good. Even if it's too early to produce any snow events with a cruddy N PAC. But two previous potent Ninos used NAO blocking to overcome crappy pacific patterns ('65-'66 and '57-'58) Opposite of the last two winters. Every time we saw the models weaken the ridge in the long range it would come right back. This year I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Opposite of the last two winters. Every time we saw the models weaken the ridge in the long range it would come right back. This year I'm not so sure. We did have the vortex in AK for periods in the prior 2 autumns. Given the PDO tendency I feel decent of periods of good epo. We'll know soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 We had an ugly Pacific last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 And by the way, euro has a coastal this week. Winter is saved. Nice upslope event days 7-9 haha. But yeah, glad to see that low pressure go south of SNE...the fact that its a coastal and not a cutter is really going to pay off in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 We did have the vortex in AK for periods in the prior 2 autumns. Given the PDO tendency I feel decent of periods of good epo. We'll know soon. Strength of the nino would suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Nice upslope event days 7-9 haha. But yeah, glad to see that low pressure go south of SNE...the fact that its a coastal and not a cutter is really going to pay off in January. I look for increased baroclinicity at this time of year always a pretty good sign as November deepens and Dec approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Interesting. Looks like the opposite of the EPS weeklies through the first week of December, which show cold west, warm east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 If nothing else there's definitely a lot of potential/dynamics available out there in time. These super bombs that keep detonating in the distant modeled winds are really more of an homage to huge gradients being established. Not for not.... it's one the aspect we...well, I have been stressing during the autumn; with the expectation of a warm ENSO on-going as we descend into the cold season, along in situ N/NE Pac block tendencies (whether we see that now, I am not so sure we won't see that going forward), does put greater than normal gradient in place at times. I've noticed that about 48 to 72 hours prior to one of these bombs, the EPO dips in the operational version of the GFS... Doesn't take a lot, just brief interval of NW flow in the NW Territories of Canada and 2 or 3 days later boom, 980 mb low somewhere's between St L and Buff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I was in Los Angeles and I recall the chilliest winter of my 15 years. I had to work up in Santa Barbara for a couple of days in early February and there were patches of ice on the road pre dawn. The next day in Santa Barbara I had to do an 11 miler before work as I was training for a May marathon. It was in the 20s that morning in Santa Barbara. The next night, back in Los Angeles, there was a snow event in the San Fernando valley which is where millions live. When I was visiting this summer I told my friends in Tahoe that I was expecting a normal or possibly better year for them for snow/temp based on my likely poor comprehension of large scale patterns and chat here. Would be nice if that could verify to reduce the drought and make me look prophetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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