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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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The record for pressure with Tip was 870 right?  I mean I guess that's still technically in play here.

 

I bet it came very close sometime last night just after recon left.  For sure it reached into the 870s.  Sustained may have peaked between 205-215mph, but we'll never know for sure.  Recon will likely get in this thing too late.

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The thing is, will it matter? I looked at the local topography and the problem is elevation increases pretty quick...even though they will be further inland..it means they get into the higher winds right above the surface so it's a wash probably..especially considering how fast this thing is moving. Pretty solid east jog on satellite though so maybe it goes south of where they are?

I was looking at pictures of Perula: I was mostly concerned about storm surge. Obviously the high winds are biggest concern but...

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The thing is, will it matter? I looked at the local topography and the problem is elevation increases pretty quick...even though they will be further inland..it means they get into the higher winds right above the surface so it's a wash probably..especially considering how fast this thing is moving. Pretty solid east jog on satellite though so maybe it goes south of where they are?

 

Well Perula just wasn't an option anymore, even after checking around. They will recon N and S to find anything viable.

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Perula is a no go.

They are checking another town further inland.

Wise choice! There's a huge difference between being brave and suicidal. At its prospective landfalling intensity, he can still document extreme conditions at an inland location, with mitigated risk to his life, which is always priority number one!

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Well Perula just wasn't an option anymore, even after checking around. They will recon N and S to find anything viable.

Some nasty convection ahead of the center. I hope if they get on the road they get on it quick . Mudslides have to be a huge concern in interior. Another consideration. So many hazards

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I bet it came very close sometime last night just after recon left.  For sure it reached into the 870s.  Sustained may have peaked between 205-215mph, but we'll never know for sure.  Recon will likely get in this thing too late.

It's killing me that there is no recon in there right now. Still several hours to go before the next one and i think there is a good chance it weakens a little bit by then just because of it's proximity to land. We may never know how strong it really got.

 

I was looking at pictures of Perula: I was mostly concerned about storm surge. Obviously the high winds are biggest concern but...

 

Yeah storm surge would be quite severe indeed given the shape of that bay.

Well Perula just wasn't an option anymore, even after checking around. They will recon N and S to find anything viable.

I have a hard time thinking anywhere is a really viable option...but Was that because of lack of sturdy buildings, just couldn't find a spot to stay,  or where they worried about storm surge? I'm wondering what type of structures are they seeing down there in general though..haven't heard much on how well things are build down there. Some dude on twc a moment ago said locals weren't even taken it that seriously in la manzanilla (i think that's where he said he was at). That's to the south of the projected landfall but this eastern jog has to be a concern. If that sentiment though is widespread everywhere though..that is depressing and quite sad

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Just wobbles or has it made a pretty significant turn to the east?  If so, that would be right into the state of Colima, meaning Manzanillo and several other large towns would be right in the path, rather than the relatively unpopulated coastline to the north. 

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  • Next

     

    You may have already seen it, but here is arguably the most intense TC winds captured on film.

    Incredible, thanks for posting.

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Just wobbles or has it made a pretty significant turn to the east?  If so, that would be right into the state of Colima, meaning Manzanillo and several other large towns would be right in the path, rather than the relatively unpopulated coastline to the north. 

 

Trochoidal wobbles and should smooth out.

 

Really need recon....

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I have a hard time thinking anywhere is a really viable option...but Was that because of lack of sturdy buildings, just couldn't find a spot to stay,  or where they worried about storm surge? I'm wondering what type of structures are they seeing down there in general though..haven't heard much on how well things are build down there. Some dude on twc a moment ago said locals weren't even taken it that seriously in la manzanilla (i think that's where he said he was at). That's to the south of the projected landfall but this eastern jog has to be a concern. If that sentiment though is widespread everywhere though..that is depressing and quite sad

 

Just no real options considering the intensity of the storm. Haven't talked enough with Josh to see if some of the small towns were akin too Mahuhal which till late last night was sorta what I was thinking would be comparable.

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This is still the winner for me.

 

This is another contender by iCyclone...really showing the power of even a storm much weaker (110 kt) than Patricia. (Personally, I suspect that Odile may have been 115 kt--low-end Category 4--at landfall.)

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Josh has scouted San Mateo and for now feels like it's an option. Little elevated for my liking but a far better alternative than Perula.

Looked at San Mateo but didn't see any hotels

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Off the charts...literally

2858db6085100fb51ca1782810dd0b2b.jpg

Sent from my SM-G925V

given how we've had Hayian and now Patricia going "off the charts", has there been any talk of revising the charts to reflect  these possibilities becoming real now?

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center eye temp wow

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 17:21:02 N Lon : 105:35:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.2 / 884.5mb/176.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.2 8.1 8.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -0.3C Cloud Region Temp : -80.5C

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Josh has scouted San Mateo and for now feels like it's an option. Little elevated for my liking but a far better alternative than Perula.

where exactly is that?  I'm having a hard time finding that...google maps keeps taking me to the town in central mexico and i don't think he'd go there lol

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