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2015-16 Total New England Snow Table

Kevin W

By Kevin W,
in New England

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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I honestly didn't think under 50% (60" or less basically) was even possible here, but I guess it supports JSpin's calculation of a 1 in 115 year season.

 

Actually, since snowfall has remained behind average pace into the spring, that number has continued upward since I reported it.  Cumulative season snowfall for my location is 2.74 standard deviations below the mean as of today, so that’s a 1 in 323 year occurrence based on the stats.  This is of course with all the usual caveats of statistical analysis, and the fact that my data set is only 10 years in length, but even just looking at mean snowfall, it’s ~90” behind average pace here, and that is a notable deviation.

 

There’s a very interesting note to add about the deviation on this current season’s snowfall however.  We’re actually far enough into the season now that we’re closing in on the limit with respect to snowfall deviation – using the numbers I have for our location, this season can no longer be more rare than a 1 in 1,000 year event, even if no accumulating snow falls from here on out.

 

…honestly there isn't a single person up here who thinks it'll snow again.

 

I disagree; I think it will snow again - there’s actually snowfall in several of our NWS point forecast panels for the coming week.  Also note that to even make it through just next season with no snowfall at our location is a one in over eight million chance (1 in 8,011,596 actually) and that bottom number of course becomes infinite if you go out to eternity.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Actually, since snowfall has remained behind average pace into the spring, that number has continued upward since I reported it. Cumulative season snowfall for my location is 2.74 standard deviations below the mean as of today, so that’s a 1 in 323 year occurrence based on the stats. This is of course with all the usual caveats of statistical analysis, and the fact that my data set is only 10 years in length, but even just looking at mean snowfall, it’s ~90” behind average pace here, and that is a notable deviation.

There’s a very interesting note to add about the deviation on this current season’s snowfall however. We’re actually far enough into the season now that we’re closing in on the limit with respect to snowfall deviation – using the numbers I have for our location, this season can no longer be more rare than a 1 in 1,000 year event, even if no accumulating snow falls from here on out.

I disagree; I think it will snow again - there’s actually snowfall in several of our NWS point forecast panels for the coming week. Also note that to even make it through just next season with no snowfall at our location is a one in over eight million chance (1 in 8,011,596 actually) and that bottom number of course becomes infinite if you go out to eternity.

:lol: Nice stats JSpin. It will snow again of course, but I'm not as optimistic as you are sometimes, though a lot of it is tongue-in-cheek.

A 1 in 323 year winter, haha. Feels about right.

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tamarack

tamarack

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:lol: Nice stats JSpin. It will snow again of course, but I'm not as optimistic as you are sometimes, though a lot of it is tongue-in-cheek.

A 1 in 323 year winter, haha. Feels about right.

 

That's like the anomaly of BWI having more snow than CAR in 2009-10.   BWI's long term (69 yr) avg is 20.9" while CAR's (76 yr) is 113", so on average, BWI has 18% of CAR's snowfall.  For 09-10 they had 110%, nearly double their 2nd highest "CAR fraction", 57% in 95-96.  The stats on that occurrence must be awesome.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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That's like the anomaly of BWI having more snow than CAR in 2009-10.   BWI's long term (69 yr) avg is 20.9" while CAR's (76 yr) is 113", so on average, BWI has 18% of CAR's snowfall.  For 09-10 they had 110%, nearly double their 2nd highest "CAR fraction", 57% in 95-96.  The stats on that occurrence must be awesome.

 

Yeah that is almost impossible. I used to think how ridiculous it was that RIC had more snowfall than ORH in 1979-1980 (by a staggering 12" too!). But BWI having more than CAR definitely wins for most obscene combo.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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:lol: Nice stats JSpin. It will snow again of course, but I'm not as optimistic as you are sometimes, though a lot of it is tongue-in-cheek.

 

Hehe, of course; I do enjoy bringing in the science/stats side of things though as a bit of a counterpoint.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Yeah that is almost impossible. I used to think how ridiculous it was that RIC had more snowfall than ORH in 1979-1980 (by a staggering 12" too!). But BWI having more than CAR definitely wins for most obscene combo.

Yeah I agree on that last sentence...that's more ridiculous than New Haven, CT running close with the NNE mountain towns/villages this winter. Or like Long Island beating the southern Greens ski resorts.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Yeah I agree on that last sentence...that's more ridiculous than New Haven, CT running close with the NNE mountain towns/villages this winter. Or like Long Island beating the southern Greens ski resorts.

 

 

It's gonna be hilarious when the next 2000-2001 comes along and a bunch of the coastal plain folk get amnesia of the past 5 years. They'll wax poetic on how the deformation bands always hit dendrite and MPM. :lol:

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

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Hey it's NORTH Haven! I cherish those events that i last 10 minutes longer as snow when New Haven flips to rain and the extra 5" of avg seasonal snowfall that i average over New Haven, haha. I'm about 10-12 miles inland actually im closer to MMK than HVN and i usually go by MMK on those radiational cooling nights, I can be 10-20 degrees cooler than HVN and in the spring ill be around 80 when HVN is rotting at 59 with a south wind.

 

But i digress...It's pretty amazing how well southern NE did as a whole compared to CNE and NNE. I still feel comfortable with that grade and the last 2 early april events just solidified that even more. Now im over 130% of normal and less than an inch away from 40". That last event we just had on 4/4...even though we only got 1.5" of snow/sleet was still super impressive because of the freezing rain factor that occured all day long, mid-afternoon in early April and a mini ice storm? Thats really incredible, we didnt even get above freezing on Monday. Even HVN got a solid icing event and stayed mostly frozen. I think thats a first. I've seen accumulating snow in April, 4/7/2003 sticks out, but never freezing rain (to my knowledge).

Probably a one in a hundred year deal to have New Haven, CT in the same league as most NNE inhabited elevations for seasonal snowfall come April.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Hey it's NORTH Haven! I cherish those events that i last 10 minutes longer as snow when New Haven flips to rain and the extra 5" of avg seasonal snowfall that i average over New Haven, haha. I'm about 10-12 miles inland actually im closer to MMK than HVN and i usually go by MMK on those radiational cooling nights, I can be 10-20 degrees cooler than HVN and in the spring ill be around 80 when HVN is rotting at 59 with a south wind.

 

But i digress...It's pretty amazing how well southern NE did as a whole compared to CNE and NNE. I still feel comfortable with that grade and the last 2 early april events just solidified that even more. Now im over 130% of normal and less than an inch away from 40". That last event we just had on 4/4...even though we only got 1.5" of snow/sleet was still super impressive because of the freezing rain factor that occured all day long, mid-afternoon in early April and a mini ice storm? Thats really incredible, we didnt even get above freezing on Monday. Even HVN got a solid icing event and stayed mostly frozen. I think thats a first. I've seen accumulating snow in April, 4/7/2003 sticks out, but never freezing rain (to my knowledge).

 

Haha sorry I didn't even know there was  New and North Haven :lol:. 

 

Hey I agree with your grade, that's a good winter for you.  Its all a very personal and localized thing to grade your own winter...and when you compare your backyard to past seasons, and then relative to your neighboring areas, I'm sure this winter would get a pretty decent to high grade from me if I lived there.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

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27.25" for the season total here, or 27.3" if I adhere to the NWS's rule of rounding to the nearest tenth of an inch. I think it's hard to measure snow to the nearest tenth of an inch, so I tend to go to the nearest quarter of an inch.

 

While the last hurrah we had this past week helped to ease the pain just a tad, it was still an all around ratter of winter that I would like to forget ever happened.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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27.25" for the season total here, or 27.3" if I adhere to the NWS's rule of rounding to the nearest tenth of an inch. I think it's hard to measure snow to the nearest tenth of an inch, so I tend to go to the nearest quarter of an inch.

While the last hurrah we had this past week helped to ease the pain just a tad, it was still an all around ratter of winter that I would like to forget ever happened.

Glad we don't live there.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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2K in southern VT no man's land. I'll still say it.

Haha...but it's weenie central for snow and severe (southern VT seems to get a ton of SVR warnings per season too).

But yeah his area is probably more remote than most of the northern Green communities, many of which are commuter towns to BTV or MPV.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Haha...but it's weenie central for snow and severe (southern VT seems to get a ton of SVR warnings per season too).

But yeah his area is probably more remote than most of the northern Green communities, many of which are commuter towns to BTV or MPV.

meh,remote is Aroostock county. In a half hour in SVT you will find civilization in Maine you will find the next lake.
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Bigbob

Bigbob

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meh,remote is Aroostock county. In a half hour in SVT you will find civilization in Maine you will find the next lake.

 

Someone asks where you live from away and you respond with T2 R7. I like to see the look on their face!

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