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Tracking hurricane Joaquin OTS


dailylurker

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Terrible post and reasoning. It is not one element that needs to be revealed tomorrow to arrive at the ultimate track. There is a massive amount of data and quantitative and physical analysis that underlie the established variables and synoptic set up that will take the system out to sea and away from EC landfall. There is no other solution other than something make believe.

 

 

Yep. the fact that all of the ensembles agree means there's not a chance IMO. A bit of a jog to the NW isn't going to change anything.

 

 

Interestingly the parallel T574 GEFS 06Z Ensembles still had three capture and landfall members. And the 0Z EC still had 5 of 50 with the same scenario.

 

It's a slim chance but there's still a chance. If there WAS going to be a massive model failure in the modern era for a major hurricane track (which are increasingly rare, of course)  it would be in this sort of situation and the next 12 hours of motion indeed matters.

 

Obviously there are wishcasters but there is still some interest here.

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Idk if this is true or not, but I was told by a retired met many years ago (not on here) that the NAM was originally developed as a result of a snowstorm bust (I think January 2000?) as a check against the GFS. It was only supposed to be used less than 24 hours out and mostly for winter weather only. Its always been a terrible model from what I've seen in my years of model watching (even within 24 hours) so I never take it seriously.

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One thing to point out is that if by some weird "miracle" it gets captured and heads into the E coast it'll still be seen as an american model failure. In theory models should get MORE accurate the closer we get to an event. So if by some chance it hits the E coast the american models still lose (Euro fails too in that case I suppose) but I'm not sure you could credit the GFS and company with the win either. 

Complex situation = complex model solutions. I suppose it's still possible for this to be the signature model failure of the 2010's but I'm extremely doubtful at this point. 

Ian sort of almost hooked me back in last night.

I've been pretty much off the landfall idea since Wed night really. But what else is there to talk about other than chilly rain that cancels some local schools? ;)

 

But it wasn't necessarily a done deal yesterday or even totally today tho at this point it seems like a heavy long shot.

 

Not sure capture is the right word here per se with the idea of landfall.. more that the mid-latitude trough location mixed with the high to the north creates the channel for it. There have been other cases with similar like Hugo. Do tend to think that without the weakness east it would have tried to come in. The pattern is extremely close to many landfalls.. though I'm sure there are plenty that look similar that didn't as well. The general drive for a storm even that far south is to recurve. 

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yep. this is the crucial difference from Sandy and why those comparisons don't make atmospheric sense.

the comparisons to Sandy are irrelevant other than it was a "hurricane" moving NW into the US perhaps.

 

neither of these 500mb lows kicked well developed hurricanes out to sea... 

 

d6zIqA2.gif

 

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    those details could not possibly be less accurate.

 

Idk if this is true or not, but I was told by a retired met many years ago (not on here) that the NAM was originally developed as a result of a snowstorm bust (I think January 2000?) as a check against the GFS. It was only supposed to be used less than 24 hours out and mostly for winter weather only. Its always been a terrible model from what I've seen in my years of model watching (even within 24 hours) so I never take it seriously.

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I've been pretty much off the landfall idea since Wed night really. But what else is there to talk about other than chilly rain that cancels some local schools? ;)

 

But it wasn't necessarily a done deal yesterday or even totally today tho at this point it seems like a heavy long shot.

 

Not sure capture is the right word here per se with the idea of landfall.. more that the mid-latitude trough location mixed with the high to the north creates the channel for it. There have been other cases with similar like Hugo. Do tend to think that without the weakness east it would have tried to come in. The pattern is extremely close to many landfalls.. though I'm sure there are plenty that look similar that didn't as well. The general drive for a storm even that far south is to recurve. 

Well, at this point the only models that do bring landfall seem to have a true capture. Hence why they should be discarded.

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Well, at this point the only models that do bring landfall seem to have a true capture. Hence why they should be discarded.

I guess I'm not totally sure what we're calling a capture. Sandy fully phased with the mid-latitude trough. A lot of the runs we saw landfall with in this system did not. But again very similar patterns have produced EC and mid-atlantic landfalls in the past.. which is mainly just a way of saying it was worth watching. 

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I guess I'm not totally sure what we're calling a capture. Sandy fully phased with the mid-latitude trough. A lot of the runs we saw landfall with in this system did not. But again very similar patterns have produced EC and mid-atlantic landfalls in the past.. which is mainly just a way of saying it was worth watching. 

 

Again, those were previous runs from several days ago now.  The 0Z GGEM, which some still cling to, does indeed show a full phase a la Sandy.  The NAM does as well.  These are unrealistic considering the system is still ragingly tropical.

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