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Superstorm93

Hurricane Joaquin

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The 0Z GFS seems to have initialized with a pressure of around 989 MB. I wouldn't trust much of anything the 0Z run of the GFS says. You put bad data into the run you're going to get bad data out of the run. Basic forecasting 101 when it comes down to utilizing model data. FWIW the high-res GFS had the pressure around 965 MB for initialization. 

 

gfs_mslp_uv850_east3_2.png

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I'd like a bit less than Isabel. 35-40 sustained and not many gusts over 50.

Up the bay has striking look to it. I hope it is further west even if we are in northeast quadrant; more time inland to weaken.  Up the bay we would be west but very close and I dont want very close. 

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The 0Z GFS seems to have initialized with a pressure of around 989 MB. I wouldn't trust much of anything the 0Z run of the GFS says. You put bad data into the run you're going to get bad data out of the run. Basic forecasting 101 when it comes down to utilizing model data. FWIW the high-res GFS had the pressure around 965 MB for initialization. 

 

gfs_mslp_uv850_east3_2.png

 

I rarely see the GFS initialize with the correct pressure (presumably due to resolution issues).  Furthermore, a significant component of storm track and intensity is dictated by large scales... so don't throw in the towel on every run that doesn't get the exact pressure right.

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Nice temperature gradient...

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 3:43Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 27
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 3:09:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°39'N 73°09'W (23.65N 73.15W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,677m (8,783ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 220° at 117kts (From the SW at ~ 134.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) from the flight level center at 3:04:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 260° at 19kts (From the W at 22mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) from the flight level center

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Global often do not depict a low enough pressure.

That is a weenie defense mechanism imo.

 

Probably. Either way we'll see what the 06Z run shows for consistency sake.

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The 0Z GFS seems to have initialized with a pressure of around 989 MB. I wouldn't trust much of anything the 0Z run of the GFS says. You put bad data into the run you're going to get bad data out of the run. Basic forecasting 101 when it comes down to utilizing model data. FWIW the high-res GFS had the pressure around 965 MB for initialization. 

 

gfs_mslp_uv850_east3_2.png

 

30 mb in a very small area that the GFS can barely resolve anyway aren't going to make a huge difference in the entire synoptic pattern.  

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What I really want to know is whether the 0z had the data from the upper air recon flight they made today.  If it did, then I trust it more than others.  Otherwise, will just wait for the 12z tomorrow.  

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Euro should be coming in any minute now. WHo wants to do the play by play?

 

 

Still out to sea.

 

Pretty impressive to see such a variety of solutions even with the additional data.  Goes to show how sensitive the setup is.

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The Euro and UK are now taking Joaquin down deep into the Bahamas, below 23N, essentially keeping Joaquin in the Bahamas for an extra day and making it more likely it heads out to sea.  To catch the southeast US low fujiwara, Joaquin really needs to lift out of the Bahamas sooner, before it gets caught instead by the energy passing under the ridge by Bermuda, but so far it has shown no sign it wants to halt its sw path.

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The 0Z GFS seems to have initialized with a pressure of around 989 MB. I wouldn't trust much of anything the 0Z run of the GFS says. You put bad data into the run you're going to get bad data out of the run. Basic forecasting 101 when it comes down to utilizing model data. FWIW the high-res GFS had the pressure around 965 MB for initialization. 

 

 

This makes no sense to me.  At 5 pm, the pressure was 968 MB, so at ~7 pm, when the GFS should have been initializing its run, why would it not have included the system pressure at that time?  I'm not a met, but I've done somewhat similar modeling on a small scale (chemical reaction/mixing models that are similar) and agree that garbage in equals garbage out - I just don't understand how known initial conditions wouldn't have been fed into the model run.  Am I missing something here?

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Probably 1% of the uncertainty can be pinned on initialization errors and 99% on the widespread weakness of features in the upper atmosphere for a thousand miles around the storm. I think the NC and s VA landfall, counter-clockwise loop and weaker system then heading for New England is the most likely outcome. A slightly offshore loop as with a storm in Oct 1984 whose name I don't recall (but I remember the loop it made) could happen too.

 

Models should start to get a handle on this later today. There will be better sampling of the important wind field over the southeast U.S. to determine how much northward tracking should follow. I predict model consensus by 00z Friday.

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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanim8wv.html

 

The water vapor loop linked above shows the trough and soon to be upper level low to the West and

a mid Atlantic low to the East. There is no where to go but up the Atlantic seaboard. The trough already appears

to be going negative as well. I agree with others that by evening we should have better clarity.

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....By tomorrow evening or so, I bet we have a MH on our hands....

 

 

NHC now calling for a MH in 72 hours.....I say sooner...way sooner....

 

 

Very preliminary thought based on future conditions for Joaquin....I think he maxes out at 945ish pressure, and touches Cat. 4 status in a day or so....as for track...way too much uncertainty....especially with the potential redevelopment of Ida....

 

 

Cat. 4 by tomorrow afternoon....bank on it....I'll revise my earlier call of the lowest pressure attained to near 930mb....This system is so very nicely "round" at the surface....and now the shear is going bye bye....just in time for diurnal max. and nice bathwater!!

:whistle:

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The 06Z GFS ensemble mean shows a significant eastward shift, keeping Joaquin east of the U.S. and out to sea...it's a bit early, but I'm thinking that this will end up as a significant synoptic-scale victory for the ECMWF suite.

 

The first visible images show that the eye is practically right over Samana Cay. San Salvador Island, some ~80 mi to the northwest, earlier reported sustained winds of 74 kt with gusts to 96 kt...very impressive, considering the distance.

 

With dry air now fully mixed out and a solid, persistent ring of cold cloud tops enclosing the eye, I expect significant strengthening once the eye clears out later today. Probably 125-130 kt (perhaps 135 kt) is reasonable.

 

Edit: Thanks to billgwx for the correction.

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The 00Z GFS ensemble mean shows a significant eastward shift, keeping Joaquin east of the U.S. and out to sea...it's a bit early, but I'm thinking that this will end up as a significant synoptic-scale victory for the ECMWF suite.

 

Not totally there yet but you can see quite the out-to-sea cluster of tracks now. Let's see now if it continues through multiple cycles.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_16.png

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Satellite presentation continues to improve as J makes another small dive southwest. Eye showing up again on IR, very cold cloud tops wrapping around the western flank (which had been a problem through last night). Looking quite symmetrical. Strengthening ongoing IMO. We'll see what recon finds.

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