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Superstorm93

Hurricane Joaquin

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Lots of possibilities here, the Euro doesn't really deepen it until 72hrs so I doubt it does much before then.

 

Track is even more confusing, what model had it drifting southeast tonight?

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Lots of possibilities here, the Euro doesn't really deepen it until 72hrs so I doubt it does much before then.

 

Track is even more confusing, what model had it drifting southeast tonight?

 

Yeah I don't think there will be much consensus for a few days, hell the two cane models ( admittedly horrible models) were about 2500 miles apart with their 00Z Sunday plots for the storm.....the HWRF had a rem low near Hudson Bay, the GFDL has a cane 350 miles SE of Hatteras......the more reliable models seem to like a up the coast solution at this point but with the continued SW or SE motion that could easily change.

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Is there any discussion of remnants of Ida trying to form a Fujiwara couplet with Joaquin, and if so, would that tend to weaken or strengthen a landfalling Joaquin in four to six days? It seems to me that the GGEM has a partial solution like that but may be trying to stall the complex too long before eventual recurvature (so its solution is too far south on that). And the ECM at this point seems to bring remnants of Ida into such a prominent role that they almost become the entire storm, so that what the ECM brings into NYC-LI region is just the blended version of the Florida weak system and a version of Joaquin that never amounts to more than it is now.

 

The way Joaquin blew up into a perfectly circular system over 29-30 C waters and the coming energy peak around Oct 3-4 tells me that it could overperform and get into cat-2 territory. I hope not, we've seen that movie before. But given the hemispheric pattern with so much blocking at this point, where else is it going but NJ-ePA?

 

Finally something very interesting to track after months of recycled fish storms and intervals of nada.

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000
NOUS42 KNHC 291019
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0615 AM EDT TUE 29 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-125 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS....ADDED
1. TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 29/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0211A JOAQUIN
C. 29/1315Z
D. 26.6N 71.2W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....FURTHER TASKING ON JOAQUIN.
3. REMARKS:
A. ALL TASKING ON THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
B. THE NOAA G-IV IS EXPECTED TO FLY 2 RESEARCH MISSIONS
AROUND JOAQUIN DEPARTING AT 29/1800Z AND 30/0600Z

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Would be nice if most of the discussion on Joaquin was in this thread instead of the NYC Metro forum. 

 

Plenty of good discussion going on in the NE subforum too.

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So with TS Joaquin a threat for a possible landfall eventually, I looked through the complete hurricane database
for the Atlantic.  There have been landfalling TCs not yet fully ET/PT in New England and LI in October...all prior
to 1924.  The Hurricane Re-analysis Project has checked over all these systems and officially accepted them into
the historical TC database.  Of course, there is still some uncertainty as to the true nature of these systems by
the time they made landfall in the NEUS given how late in the season they were, but this is the best we have
and are considered official.
 
 

   Date        Landfall location  Intensity                  Notes
10/19/1851          RI              60 mph          Formed just N of the Bahamas
11/03/1861        ern LI            70 mph          Moved over srn FL and Hatteras

                                                     before final landfall over LI
10/04/1869       Cape Cod           90 mph          Known as "Saxby's Gale" with

                                                     second landfall over PWM
10/10/1894       cntrl LI           85 mph          Made first landfall as a major

                                                     hurricane over FL Panhandle,

                                                     weakened to to TS over SC,

                                                     and became a hurricane

                                                     again just offshore of

                                                     Delmarva
10/19/1923       Cape Cod           60 mph          Moved NW from E of Bermuda

                                                     to Cape Cod and then over BOS
 

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Kind of anxious for recon to get out there. The last few hours of visible satellite might be misleading but either the tightly wound vortex of the exposed LLC collapsed or it has relocated under the thunderstorm canopy of the MLC.

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VDM is in. Rather shockingly, 994 mb, 47 kts surface wind from Dropsonde on the SE Side.

 

 

roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 17:07Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 16:34:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°58'N 70°40'W (25.9667N 70.6667W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,394m (4,573ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 78° at 39kts (From the ENE at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.36 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,671m (5,482ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,669m (5,476ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph) which was observed 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the NW (317°) from the flight level center at 16:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) which was observed 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 16:52:10Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 195° at 11kts (From the SSW at 13mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Rain at the center fix location. Heavy rain outbound, some SFMR rain-contaminated surface winds
Dropsonde confirmed at least 47 kts surface wind in the SE quadrant outbound prior to max FL wind

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No discussion in here, so considering trashing the thread and keeping it to the local sub-forums. 

 

Joaquin is putting on a bit of a show with recon showing a pressure drop down to 994mb with a dropsonde measuring at least 47 knot winds on their first pass. The LLC is under -80c convection and shear should begin to weaken from here on out.

 

00eb9cd6d86e23e9cd6ba6d4e523bae2.jpg

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Model spread is wild, even run to run divergence is vast with the handling of Joaquin, most especially the Euro. Why is that?

 

Key players are the mid/upper low in the Southeast CONUS, ridging in the NW Atlantic, to the NE of Joaquin and the wild card of a possible cutoff low pinching off the Atlantic trough and retrograding west (the one ventilating the remnants of Ida). Out to sea solutions have weaker ridging, hence Joaquin doesn't get into the SE CONUS ULL sphere of influence (which would whip it to the NW). Also, if a cutoff low pinches off the Atlantic trough and retrogrades, it would increase the shear over Joaquin and hook it abruptly to the east.

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No discussion in here, so considering trashing the thread and keeping it to the local sub-forums. 

 

 

 

 

Alternatively, how about trashing all the local forum sub-threads?

 

Having discussion of an east coast tropical cyclone confined to five regional sub-threads would be literally the single dumbest thing in the history of American Weather. 

 

Obviously there was sort of a weird genesis to all of this in the combination of a very dead Atlantic tropical season and this beginning discussion regionally as a non-tropical rain event, but it's simply absurd to have to have TC recon, satellite, and model discussion split regionally.

 

I can't believe people have become such parochial IMBYers that a New Englander couldn't abide or tolerate discussion of recon or a computer model by someone from Virginia, or (gasp! horrors!) face the off chance that there might be a mention or two of storm impacts to Chincoteague or something that they can't avert their eyes from before reading.

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No discussion in here, so considering trashing the thread and keeping it to the local sub-forums. 

 

Joaquin is putting on a bit of a show with recon showing a pressure drop down to 994mb with a dropsonde measuring at least 47 knot winds on their first pass. The LLC is under -80c convection and shear should begin to weaken from here on out.

 

Think that might be about to change. Clearly the LLC has relocated per recon. Though this thing is still tilted, obviously even the slightest abatement of shear is going to make a huge difference.

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Alternatively, how about trashing all the local forum sub-threads?

 

Having discussion of an east coast tropical cyclone in confined to five regional sub-threads would be literally the single dumbest thing in the history of American Weather. 

 

Obviously there was sort of a weird genesis to all of this in the combination of a very dead Atlantic tropical season and this beginning discussion regionally as a non-tropical rain event, but it's simply absurd to have to have TC recon, satellite, and model discussion split regionally.

 

I can't believe people have become such parochial IMBYers that a New Englander couldn't abide or tolerate discussion of recon or a computer model by someone from Virginia, or (gasp! horrors!) face the off chance that there might be a mention or two of storm impacts to Chincoteague or something that they can't avert their eyes from before reading.

 

 

Not sure why you're all flustered.

 

All I meant by that post was that since there had been around eight posts since this morning in a tropical thread with a real red-meat cyclone developing in the Bahamas is pretty telling that the general forum isn't getting nearly as much traffic as the populated sub-forums. 

 

Oh, and never call me a "New Englander"  :thumbsdown:

 

Gonzo wlll be flying a high-altitude mission to collect data for tomorrow mornings 12z runs

 

20150929N1ftk_zpsmyacew6s.jpg

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The Euro really wants to shove Joaquin SW into the Bahamas as a hurricane. Then just as quickly as the 00z run, ejects it out towards Bermuda and doesn't allow it to get captured.

 

post-845-0-63767900-1443550727_thumb.png

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HWRF still trying to move this thing westward along 26.5N for the next couple days(yesterday it kept it at 28N), which leaves it in a better position to get pulled into the east coast.  The Euro is taking it down to 24N, which should at least cause a wider swing if not a miss OTS.  I suppose I'd have to lean toward the more southerly position given the last day of movement and probable continued tug of the center toward the deep convection on the south side.

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Merely a few hours of the LLC and MLC being in close proximity and we now have an intensifying tropical cyclone. The vortex is still tilted to the SSE, but is definitely improving. Intense convection over the center and 61kt on the dropsonde in the NE quadrant. Should have a new vdm soon.

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000
URNT12 KNHC 291852
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 29/18:17:50Z
B. 26 deg 00 min N
070 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1353 m
D. 59 kt
E. 062 deg 7 nm
F. 131 deg 61 kt
G. 062 deg 21 nm
H. EXTRAP 990 mb
I. 16 C / 1673 m
J. 22 C / 1672 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C20
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0211A JOAQUIN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 61 KT 053 / 21 NM 18:11:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 069 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
50 PERCENT BAND AROUND EAST HALF OF CENTER
850 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR RADAR BAND

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I'm a little hesitant to post the HWRF because it feels like cherry-picking, but I thought the upper level structure was interesting enough.

 

nEEEW1e.png

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