TowsonWeather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just wow at that ridge out west...impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Great NAM look at 84, taping into the gulf, good height rise in the east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol, the differences at h5 at 78 hours vs 6z NAM...looks much better i would think? The 12z NAM looks to be in lock step with the 0z ECMWF with the ULL placement in TX at 0z 12/25, which is very impressive considering we are talking about the NAM at 84hrs. It does have a piece of energy in IL, while the 0z EC has it in IA, with the main phasing parcel coming down through ND. No big deal on that at this range, what is going on in TX is the main thing to take away from this run, and that looks great and has support from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am not entirely familiar with the NESIS ratings. I have heard of them, but I am not entirely sure on how they work and the such. A NESIS 4 or 5 would be a massive, "crippling" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 84HR NAM has the "look." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Dare I say that ridge on the Euro especially in the Rockies looks very similar to February 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 A NESIS 4 or 5 would be a massive, "crippling" snowstorm. and none of the storms last winter made it to a 4, believe it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Will be looking at the 12z GFS and Euro to see if the slowing down of the system holds. I'm thinking the slower the system, the better chance for a coastal bomb than OTS. This run also gives me a glimmer of hope that I may be able to beat the storm to DCA without a delayed or canceled flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Did you not read the Storm mode announcement? Look at this post folks. Do you want to be limited to 5 posts per day or suspended? This will do it. Keep it on topic, give some rudimentary analysis or just don't post in the model thread. This thread is for model analysis/discussion only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Did you not read the Storm mode announcement? Look at this post folks. Do you want to be limited to 5 posts per day or suspended? This will do it. Keep it on topic, give some rudimentary analysis or just don't post in the model thread. This thread is for model analysis/discussion only. Sorry, NAM seems to be folding towards the Euro with holding the energy back a bit more. Thank God, cause a crippling NESIS event Xmas eve into Xmas would be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Will be looking at the 12z GFS and Euro to see if the slowing down of the system holds. I'm thinking the slower the system, the better chance for a coastal bomb than OTS. This run also gives me a glimmer of hope that I may be able to beat the storm to DCA without a delayed or canceled flight. Even the 06 gfs slowed this system down. We're looking at the 2010 Boxing day storm now for most. I'd suspect guidance will be slower than the actual timing but only by a few hours as is typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Even the 06 gfs slowed this system down. We're looking at the 2010 Boxing day storm now for most. I'd suspect guidance will be slower than the actual timing but only by a few hours as is typical. That nebulous place south of VA....TN/GA/SC/NC it's a Christmas Day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Did you not read the Storm mode announcement? Look at this post folks. Do you want to be limited to 5 posts per day or suspended? This will do it. Keep it on topic, give some rudimentary analysis or just don't post in the model thread. This thread is for model analysis/discussion only. yep you beat me to it. the 12z gfs is coming in soon you better post something good. we will have a record number of people on today, and we don't need the follwing type of posts looks good what are your thoughts met XXXX gosh i hope i can make it to grandmas house i'll take it we're screwed emoticons only i got 24" last run and only 6" on this run winters over this is your warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That nebulous place south of VA....TN/GA/SC/NC it's a Christmas Day storm Yes I was speaking for the big cities. Nice image of the playing field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yes I was speaking for the big cities. Nice image of the playing field. Apologies for the diversion. Looks like the Pineapple Express is open for business. Let's waition the GFS--I think if the GFS and the EURO show this evolution and solution, I'll be fully onboard. Off topic: Damn, that W Atlantic storm looks impressive on WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM initialized, out to 12 hours....0Z for comparison: For those trying to compare two model runs, it helps to actually push the time of the previous one to match the time frame. You're comparing the 12 hr image on two different runs so your comparison time is off by 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS Initializes: Compared to 12Z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just had a chance to look over the nam. I know this is at the 84 hour when NAM is a little iffy. But looking at the 500's wouldn't this argue for a very suppressed solution with it going out to sea. It has a very positive tilt and the heights on the east coast look nonexistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 One key to look at is if the 12z GFS tries to cut off the low at 500mb at around 0z 12/25, and if it does, where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just had a chance to look over the nam. I know this is at the 84 hour when NAM is a little iffy. But looking at the 500's wouldn't this argue for a very suppressed solution with it going out to sea. It has a very positive tilt and the heights on the east coast look nonexistent. Also wanted to mention that the ridge out west looks a little to far east to my eyes. Not an expert so I could be totally off on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Also wanted to mention that the ridge out west looks a little to far east to my eyes. Not an expert so I could be totally off on this. For one thing, what's too far East for Hanover, PA is not too far East for places closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just had a chance to look over the nam. I know this is at the 84 hour when NAM is a little iffy. But looking at the 500's wouldn't this argue for a very suppressed solution with it going out to sea. It has a very positive tilt and the heights on the east coast look nonexistent. It's a good point. IMHO, the driving force behind rising heights on the EC will be the lifting away of the large H5 feature. As it pulls away, heights off the seaboard will begin to rise, providing a way for this storm to turn the corner. If you look at the loop of the GFS (even only through 18-24 hours, you can see the H5 low lifting north-northeast. This should force heights to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just had a chance to look over the nam. I know this is at the 84 hour when NAM is a little iffy. But looking at the 500's wouldn't this argue for a very suppressed solution with it going out to sea. It has a very positive tilt and the heights on the east coast look nonexistent. IMHO - It appears the northern stream is about to invigorate that trof as the north atlantic low appears to be moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Through 24, GFS looks a tad slower with the energy hitting the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 EVERYone DID SEE THE 0z EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN... which as THEGREATDR point out which shwos a NESIS 4 -- 5 event right? Huh? Here are the 120hr and 144hr maps I saw: How does that equate to this: Or, rather, how does a 993mb mean low 200mi east of ACY get us to NESIS 5? NESIS 4? Yeah, i guess BDL to BOS could get clobbered with the ECE's forecast. I'm not sure NJ through NYC would do all that great, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 For one thing, what's too far East for Hanover, PA is not too far East for places closer to the coast. Wasn't talking about MBY. This looks like it would basically scoot off the coast without it turning up the coast to give coastal Del, Jersey and New York snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z NAM and 12z GFS appear to be in the same vicinty with our s/w in the SW... but have their differences in the ATL low at 42 hrs 12z GFS 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The H5 setup is similar to the 0z Euro at the same time, which does not "scoot" off the coast. The large low over the Atl. will be lifting out, while the energy across the upper Midwest is being to interact with the southern shortwave. The atmosphere is a very complicated fluid, one that does not always lead to accurate visual qualitative extrapolations. That's why we leave it to very complicated mathematics when it comes to trying to solve the evolution....it's hard to imagine how all those moving parts are going to interact. Wasn't talking about MBY. This looks like it would basically scoot off the coast without it turning up the coast to give coastal Del, Jersey and New York snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This can be taken two different ways. Either the NAM is considered good because of its agreement with the ECMWF, or since it tends to have a strong/slow bias at this time range, it could imply the ECMWF is too strong/slow. =) DR The 12z NAM looks to be in lock step with the 0z ECMWF with the ULL placement in TX at 0z 12/25, which is very impressive considering we are talking about the NAM at 84hrs. It does have a piece of energy in IL, while the 0z EC has it in IA, with the main phasing parcel coming down through ND. No big deal on that at this range, what is going on in TX is the main thing to take away from this run, and that looks great and has support from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At 60, the 12z GFS is very similar to the 0z Euro at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.